Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large E’ly swells through this week as massive low drifts towards the North Island, only slowly easing into Wed/Thurs
• Winds shifting S-S/SE Thurs, increasing Fri
• Mostly onshore winds this weekend with a blend of SE and E swells
• Easing winds next week with small  E’ly swells looking persistent- nice boost in size later Wed into Thurs
• Small S swells likely by next weekend

Recap

Pumping E swell through yesterday and today with light winds all day supplying premium conditions. Size yesterday was in the 8 occ. 10ft range with bigger sets on bommies. It’s only come down a fraction today with solid 8ft+ surf across the region supplying large and challenging surf for experienced surfers. A memorable swell event for winter.

Wednesday lunch-time surf check: absolutely pumping

This week (Aug 4-8)

No great change to the f/cast for the week. The slowly retreating fetch is continuing to send strong E swells with just slow easing trend in play.

We should see size back to a more manageable 4-6ft through tomorrow, on a slow easing trend. 

Further downwards into Fri with 4ft surf easing to 3ft or so during the day.

Local winds will be less friendly throiugh this period as a large high pressure ridge builds in, with morning winds tomorrow W-W/SW early, tending SW-S not far after sunrise then tracking S’ly at fresh paces. There’ll still be options with the E swell angle for protected spots but all the open beaches will be wind affected.

Winds shift more S through SE on Fri so apart from a brief window for the early north of the harbour we’ll see surface conditions deteriorating.

This weekend (Aug 9-10)

A high pressure ridge remains parked over the state over the weekend as a strong high sits unseasonably southwards (just to the SE of Tasmania through Sat). We’ll see winds from the SE through E/SE both days with any morning land breeze unlikely to clean up the resulting lump and bump.

Swell wise leftover E swell from this week will show a few 3ft sets through Sat, easing back through Sun.

Short range SE-E/SE swell will whip up some low quality 2-3ft surf by Sun. 

Nothing pretty to look at, but there will be some low quality waves for the keen this weekend.

Next week (Aug 11 onwards)

Another sub-tropical low is expected to form over the weekend, this time off the QLD coast before drifting off towards the east and reconsolidating near the North Island. The initial swell increase from this system will be confined to SEQLD/NENSW so temperate NSW is looking at a quiet start to next week with small swells and lighter winds as the high pressure ridge relaxes.

We should see lighter land breezes into Mon and Tues morning with light SE-E/SE breezes through the day. 

Nothing major surf-wise, with 2 occ. 3ft surf from the top of the high holding some weak beachies through Mon and Tues and likely into Wed.

Better quality E swell from the low near the North Island should start to fill in later Wed into Thurs.

No great size is expected for this event- sets building into the 3-4ft range at this stage through Thurs and Fri but with nice conditions under light winds.

Further ahead does look more typical for the season with cold fronts  expected next weekend, only of minor/moderate strength at this stage of the game.

We’ll see how they look on Fri. Hope you’ve been getting some of this current E swell!