Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon August 4th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large E’ly swells through this week as massive low drifts towards the North Island, only slowly easing into Wed/Thurs
• Clean and large Tues/Wed with light winds
• Winds shifting S-S/SE Thurs, increasing Fri
• Mostly onshore winds this weekend with a blend of SE and E swells
• Easing winds next week with E’ly swells looking persistent- possibly sizey if sub-tropical low forms over the weekend

Recap

The weekend ran close to script as a deep, complex low formed off the MNC Sat and was augmented by a secondary low centre from the Coral Sea Sun. Conditions were wild and woolly with SE winds Sat and surf building from 3-4ft into the 5-6ft range by close of play. Sunday was massive and onshore with swells from the SE in the 10ft+ range, mostly too rogue and wild for even big wave spots to handle. Winds are still from the S today with a morning SW flow not really cleaning up surf. Bommies are still cracking in the 10-12ft range and most spots are still too wild to be rideable. We’ll see winds easing back today and cleaner conditions over the next couple of days before another strong high brings a mod/fresh SE flow later this week. 

Rogue windy sets on the bommie for those with large boards

This week (Aug 4-8)

Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) pass shows a low in the Northern Tasman with SE gales proximate to the NSW Coast and a long, broad fetch of E’ly gales extending from the Tasman out to a position north of the North Island. This slow moving fetch will maintain elevated E’ly swells for the majority of this week with embedded pulses and only a very slow easing trend through the week. That puts the focus back on local winds as the main arbiter of surf quality. 

In the short run we should see a rapid improvement in those winds into tomorrow morning as high pressure drifts across NSW, bringing light winds and settled conditions. Offshore winds most of the day tomorrow offer potential for a great/epic day of surfing under 8ft of E swell with a possibility of bigger sneaker sets. 

Light winds again into Wed morning although they will tend SW through the morning at mod paces as a front sweeps past Tasmania. A weak, troughy area on the south coast may move north through the day bringing a light SE flow later in the day- keep tabs on local winds- there may be some swirling winds around that troughy area. Size will be slowly trending down, although 6ft sets are expected with some sneakers still on the menu. As the fetch retreats we’ll see more space in between sets which should make more spots user friendly- although there’ll still be plenty of size and water movement when they come, so give it a decent check. 

Winds take a turn for the worse through Thurs as a strong new high pressure ridge starts to fill in. Early light winds should tend SW but through the morning they will tend S through S/SE and reach mod/fresh paces. Exposed breaks will likely have S’ly bump early and once the wind gets up, clean waves will be confined to sheltered spots. E swell keeps on chugging away in the 4-5ft range (still some 6ft sets possible) so sheltered spots should still see plenty of swell getting in.

The SE flow entrenches and tends E/SE through Fri so expect deteriorating conditions with leftover E swell still holding in the 4ft range. 

This weekend (Aug 9-10)

Conditions aren’t looking great for the weekend with a strong, slow moving high parked next to Tasmania (1037hPa) with a firm ridge right up the eastern seaboard. It’s not the synoptic pattern you’d expect to see in August and as a result we’ll see a mod SE flow across temperate NSW, stronger up in the sub-tropics and tending more E/SE. 

So, onshore winds both days are expected, with just a minor easing in wind strength through Sun as the high starts to track away to the SE.

A low and trough near the North Island track south into the weekend with a SE fetch off the South Island and potential for a fetch out of Cook Strait, combined with the SE winds through the Tasman so there will be some swell energy from that direction, both days.

At this stage, it looks like a blend of easing E swell and mod SE swell to 3-4ft both days- we’ll fine-tune that through the week.

For now though, keep expectations for wave quality low.

Next week (Aug 11 onwards)

As the strong high migrates over New Zealand models are suggesting it maintains an E’ly fetch - extending from the top of the north Island down the west coast of New Zealand. Nothing too major but likely to see E’ly swells hold in the 3-4ft range as a ballpark figure.

It's still a possibility we may see a low form in the sub-tropics either this wekeend or early next week, bringing stronger E'ly swells (see below).

An area of high pressure moving up over NENSW early next week then supplies light winds through early next week. 

Likely easing and light from the SE Mon with a more offshore flow expected into Tues and Wed as a small low forms off the south coast.

E’ly-E/NE’ly swell looks persistent through next week, possibly sizey if another low forms!

Check back Wed for the latest.

Seeya then.