South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri 11th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Plenty of chunky trade swell expected Tues/Wed, with mod/fresh SE winds favouring the Points
• More S/SE angled swells fill in Thurs with winds shifting more SW-S
• Flukey south swells also in the water across Northern NSW this weekend, holding Monday
• Pumping, very sizey SE swells Fri with light winds, favouring NENSW for size
• Sizey but easing SE swells over the weekend with winds shifting more NW through NE
• S swells expected early next week

Recap

Plenty of E’ly trade swell over the weekend with winds a problem north of Yamba (mod/fresh SE from dawn to dusk) with much more subdued winds on the MNC. Sat was in the 3 occ. 4ft range with Sun up in the 3-4ft range with occ. 5ft sets on offer. Sheltered points in NENSW through SEQLD offered smaller but cleaner peelers both days. Similar sized surf today, mostly in the 4ft range with mod SE winds widespread, lighter SW-S winds inshore across the MNC. We’ve got a dynamic week ahead with a major swell expected for Good Friday as a tropical low drifts into the Tasman. Details below. 

Banks still hungover from TC Alfred but plenty of swell energy getting into the Points today

This week (Apr 14-18)

We’ve got a very dynamic week ahead, anchored by very strong high pressure moving into the far-southern Tasman and acting as anvil for a deep low which is expected to form in the tropical South Pacific between New Caledonia and Vanuatu o/night into tomorrow before drifting SW into the Tasman as a deep, extra-tropical low pressure system. This system intensifies through the week and is now expected to generate a large E’ly quadrant swell for the Eastern Seaboard heading into and over the Easter weekend. There’ll be plenty of swell from the lead-up work as well with an anchored trade fetch through the Coral Sea doing plenty of heavy lifting until the main event swell kicks in.

In the short run it’s a fairly straightforwards outlook. The new high reinforces the strong ridge up the sub-tropical coast with mod/fresh SE winds through most of the region, a notch lighter on the MNC. Chunky E’ly trade swells hold in the 3-5ft range(mostly 4ft) with surf grading smaller into more sheltered inner points. Cleaner conditions for the morning on the MNC/Coffs coast with dawn to dusk SE winds north of Yamba.

Similar winds for Wed-mod/fresh S/SE-SE with a chance for lighter SW-S inshore early across the Southern Gold Coast-Tweed/Byron and lighter on the MNC. We’re still looking at a day favouring the Points with most beaches wind affected. The trade fetch thickens up as the tropical low starts to push down into it so size is likely to increase a notch through the day. Nothing huge but a chunky 4-5ft, smaller into the more sheltered inner points. 

A shift in swell direction and local winds should be evident Thurs. Certainly by later Wed into Thurs the synoptic chart should look insane with a deep low (970-980hPa) retrograding into the Tasman, positioned inside the North island with plenty of space for severe gale to low end storm force winds to be aimed up at the east coast (see below). More S-SE angled swells hold size in the 3-4ft range with winds shifting more SW-S as the wind field from the low expands through the Tasman. 

Good Friday looks like it will be very good indeed. We’ll see S/SE swell to 4-5ft early before powerful, pumping swells from the SE fill in late morning under premium conditions with light offshore land breezes, eventually tending to light seabreezes. Size looks to be in the 6-8ft range under current modelling with a few 10ft sets a possibility once the bulk of the swell fills in. Typically these swells tend to favour NENSW with max size but with the sandbar deficit following TC Alfred confidence is lower in that assessment. We’ll finesse final size and timing as we get closer to the mark but confidence is now high on the event delivering a significant swell event. Experienced surfers only at exposed breaks. This won’t be a swell for people not confident in their ability and fitness to handle heavy water, including getting out and potentially swimming in. More sheltered points will tend to have more user-friendly surf.

This weekend (Apr 19-20)

Still pumping into Sat although we’re likely to be down a notch from Good Friday’s peak. Likely a solid 6ft with occ. 8ft sets still in the water, under light W-NW winds tending to mod a’noon NE seabreezes. That will likely see some devil wind across Points before they blow out and only a few select spots handling the size and N’ly wind. Still solid and powerful and suitable for experienced surfers only. 

By Sun we should see surf easing into a range more suitable for a wider range of recreational surfers with 4-5ft surf easing through the day. Light W-NW winds supply premium offshore conditions before a’noon NE seabreezes reach mod paces. 

Next week (Apr 21 onwards)

A fair bit of model divergence into next week but we should see at the least a new high move through the Bight and into the Tasman next week. A new ridge and S’ly change early week is likely to bring some S swell into the picture through Tues, possibly accentuated by remnants of this weeks low still hanging around to intensify the S’ly fetch (GFS scenario).

Still lots of uncertainty though, with ECMWF suggesting remnants of the low sitting near the South Island, possibly as a source of S/SE swell and an inland trough/low approaching from Victoria, with an E/NE infeed into the low early next week. 

We’ll see how those possibilities look through the week, in the mean-time plenty to focus on short-term with bigger boards likely coming into play from Good Friday. 

Seeya Wed for the next update.