South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 7th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Very small in SE Qld Mon-Tues with light winds
• Smaller in NNSW on Mon, generally light winds
• Another nice pulse of S'ly swell for NNSW on Tues PM, peaking Wed, easing Thurs.. but not much size in SE Qld
• Decent E'ly trade swell building from Fri, getting sizier over the weekend with SE winds
• Still a possibility of juicier E’ly swell but souped up tradeswell at a minimum into early/mid next week
• Possibility of SE swell later next week depending on low pressure development in Tasman- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Small, fun S to S/SE swells Sat hovered around the 2-3ft range across NENSW, smaller 1-2ft at the best SEQLD swell magnets with light winds most of the day after morning offshores. Sun showed S swell building across NENSW with the MNC topping out the size with sets to 3-4ft, grading smaller 2-3ft across the rest of NENSW and smaller 1-2ft (or less) in SEQLD. Conditions were good for the morning with light winds and a’noon seabreezes. Size has dropped off further today with small leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft at NENSW S facing beaches and tiny surf in SEQLD under premium autumn conditions.

Couple of fun waves across NENSW under light winds- water still brown though

This week (Apr 7-11)

A front passes into the Tasman overnight and robust fetch of SW gales is trailing behind, currently sweeping NE past the SE coast of Tasmania. We’ll see a moderate S swell generated by this fetch, with a dominant high moving into the Tasman in it’s wake and strengthening through the week. A long E’ly fetch then develops in the South Pacific slot with the head of the fetch extending into the Coral Sea and Northern Tasman. E’ly swells from this source will initially favour the sub-tropics before filtering down into temperate NSW. Zonal fronts well to the south of the continent will supply some flukey long period S swell wrap to magnets later in the week. Longer term the Tasman and Coral Seas are looking unstable again with low pressure development likely. 

In the short run we’ll see a nice, chunky S swell building through tomorrow, consisting of majority mid-period swell with some longer period stuff in the mix as well. Expect surf a bit undersized early with swells from the S to 2 occ. 3ft, showing sets to 3-4ft by mid-morning across the MNC, early a’noon across NENSW and showing on the border later a’noon. By close of play we should see some bigger sets across S exposed breaks in NENSW, topping out around 2-3ft at SEQLD S facing beaches on the border. Light morning breezes should tend SW before a light S’ly flow tends S/SE then clocks around SE. Nothing much above 15kts so even if the light onshore flow kicks in conditions should stay workable for the day, especially wherever there is any wind protection.

Size holds into Wed morning with sets to 3-4ft at S exposed breaks in NENSW, occ. 5ft at surfable S swell magnets not affected by floodwater or destroyed banks. Size will ease off through the day. Light winds in the morning, with land breezes tending to mod SE winds in the a’noon, a notch stronger in SEQLD as a high pressure ridge strengthens along the QLD coast.

A small blend of leftover S and S/SE swells Thursday should still offer a 2 occ. 3ft wave at S exposed breaks in NENSW, smaller 1-2ft in SEQLD and conditions should stay favourable with light morning W-SW breezes tending to a’noon SE winds. Those winds will be weaker in NENSW, stronger the further north you go.

We’ll see a pattern shift Fri with a minor mix of tiny S swells and a slow building trend from swells generated from the E’ly fetch. Conditions will be clean with light winds and a’noon SE winds. Small S swells to 2ft will be overlapped by E’ly swells building into the 2-3ft range by close of play.

This weekend (Apr 12-13)

We should see a thickening up of the trade fetch at a minimum later this week into the weekend, with winds retrograding into the Coral Sea. Compared to Fridays notes the low or dip near New Caledonia looks more poorly formed and not as significant a swell producing feature. Still a chance it could intensify through this week.

Under current modelling, we’re still looking at an increase in E’ly trade swell through the weekend, with moderate/fresh SE-E/SE winds favourable for the Points. 

We’ll pencil in size building into the 3-4ft range through Sat and further increasing to 3-5ft through Sun. 

Winds look established from dawn to dusk, but we should see lighter winds inshore early reflecting seasonal norms, especially on the Southern Gold Coast and NENSW.

Next week (Apr 14 onwards)

Plenty of E swell into early next week as a broad tradewind fetch keeps chugging away. Still a possibility of sizier outcomes depending on any low pressure development in the South Pacific or Coral Sea. We’ll pencil in a continuation of 3-5ft E swell into Mon with SE winds, holding at similar sizes into Tues before slowly easing. 

Activity from the S looks to continue at small/moderate levels as fronts push through under the continent, although nothing directly aims up into the Tasman under current modelling. 

We may also see low pressure develop in the Tasman with potential for SE swells later next week- modelling is divergent lending low confidence to any predictions.

We’ll pencil in a fun week of E’ly swells for now and report back Wed.

Seeya then!