South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri 25th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun leftover E swell Sat & Sun with generally OK winds
• Tricky surf Monday with developing S/SW winds and a mix of swells
• Smaller, cleaner leftovers on Tues and Wed
• Large (NNSW) and windy conditions developing Thurs, easing Fri (smaller SE Qld)
• Plenty of swell into next weekend too

Recap

Onshore winds have maintained below average conditions for much of the last few days though this morning offered a window of light variable winds and cleaner surf. Wave heights have been around the 3-4ft mark from the east. 

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

The synoptics are looking quite complex across the Tasman Sea, but the good news is that we’ve got plenty of waves on the way. 

The trough off the coast (responsible for the onshores) will slowly move south on Saturday, resulting in light morning winds and afternoon sea breezes across most regions and thus an improvement in surf conditions.

Model guidance is calling for a minor dip in surf size on Saturday followed by a pulse on Sunday, but I’m unable to find the source for this increase (admittedly, on a tight time schedule this evening). Additionally, it looks like the models are combining Saturday’s dual short period easterly swell trains into a single swell train on Sunday, which is most likely providing a false boost of surf size.

So, let’s round out the forecast for both days somewhere in and around the 3ft at most open beaches. 

Saturday afternoon’s sea breeze will probably be around to the NE, which may freshen N’ly overnight across some regions in response to a developing low off Southern NSW early Sunday. This is then expected to swing more to the NW through Sunday morning and should clean things up quite nicely across the open beaches. 

As such, Sunday morning is probably the pick of the weekend. Here’s hoping you can find a bank somewhere. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

The low developing off Southern NSW on Sunday is unlikely to be much of a swell producer for our region.

Most of the winds around it will be aimed towards Southern NSW, though there will be a thin fetch of S/SW gales just off the MId North Coast on Monday and this may generate an unusual spread of short range southerly swell for Far Northern NSW and SE Qld in the afternoon (or maybe early Tuesday).

Note: this combo of low period and southerly swell direction doesn’t make sense for Far Northern NSW and SE Qld, but good surf has eventuated quite a few times before - although it often only affects a small percentage of locations. Keep your expectations low, and your eyes peeled.

Otherwise, residual E’ly swell will maintain plenty of surf across much of the coast on Monday. Offshore winds will keep conditions clean in most regions though the MNC will probably fall under the influence of the aforementioned S/SW gales (not quite as strong, mind). 

The Tasman Low will quickly ease through Monday so smaller surf is then expected through Tuesday and Wednesday, including some background E/NE energy generated by a broad fetch atop a large high east of New Zealand (right now).

The head of this fetch will be enhanced over the weekend by a small tropical low drifting south from a position south-east of New Caledonia, that will briefly display impressive wind strengths (see below) - however the large travel distance means surf potential will be around 3-4ft+ from this source mid-late week (biggest in Northern NSW, a touch smaller in SE Qld). It’ll also be overshadowed by a local weather system pushing up the Southern NSW Coast on Tuesday.

This next system will be in the form of a sharp trough, which will initially provide a subtle increase in S/SW breezes across Northern NSW on Wednesday, before it kicks in properly on Thursday with strong winds across most locations, easing into Friday.

An associated local swell will increase rapidly from late Wednesday (lower MNC) through Thursday with size likely to push north of 6ft+ in Northern NSW by the afternoon, easing into FRiday as local winds throttle back. We’ll see smaller surf in SE Qld, probably around 3-4ft across the semi-exposed points (bigger at exposed northern ends and south facing beaches), however with the sand deficit playing a strong role in the chances of good surf right now, it’s hard to have confidence in next week's outlook.

Anyway, we'll have a better idea on specifics on Monday, right now is too early to have much confidence.

There’s also a suggestion that the broadscale pattern associated with this system may linger across Tasman longitudes into the end of the week, which could maintain smaller but still-strong surf from the SE into next weekend. 

It’s certainly been an Autumn to remember. 

See you Monday!