South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 28th April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing S swells Tues with size peaking in the AM and early light SW winds becoming mod/fresh S’ly
• Low point Wed with lighter SW winds inshore early before fresh S’lies
• Late spike in S swell likely Wed on MNC
• Thurs sees increasing S swells becoming sizey in the a’noon in NENSW, smaller in SEQLD
• Robust blend of S and SE swells Fri with mod/fresh S-SE winds, lighter inshore early
• Plenty of SE swell Sat, easing Sun with SE winds, lighter on the MNC
• Lot’s more SE-E/SE swell next week, potentially sizey from mid week- low confidence in specifics, check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Generally improving conditions over the weekend with Sat seeing lighter windows of SW-S wind reported, although Byron-Ballina maintained an onshore SE flow. Surf hovered in the 3-4ft range on Sat. Conditions improved into Sun with more widespread morning offshores and light winds with fun sized swells to 2-3ft offering reasonable surf if you could find a good bank. Autumnal conditions this morning with W-SW winds, now freshening from the S with early undersized 2-3ft surf showing signs of more life as S swells fill in across NENSW.

Water still a bit brown, but nice autumnal conditions this morning

This week (Apr 28-May 2)

Another dynamic autumn week beckons with a current low in the Tasman slowly drifting E while a dominant high moves into the Bight. We’ll see another front and trough develop mid week on the leading edge of the dominant high, which sees a strong S/SE-SE fetch develop through the lower Tasman from mid week. Plenty of swell from this source with a strong ridge along the NSW seeing fresh S’lies, easing into the weekend. 

In the short run, we’ll see the current increase in S swell continue o/night into tomorrow and propagate north into SEQLD, at reduced levels. Mod/fresh S’lies are expected tomorrow, but we should see lighter SW winds inshore early and an a moderating trend later in the day as the low moves away. Size looks to be in the 3-4ft range in NENSW, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD, easing a notch during the a’noon. You’ll probably need to find a bit of wind protection, even in the morning to get the best out of it. 

Wed looks to be the low point of the week as the low moves away and we wait for the next swell increase. Mod S’lies are on the menu again, with good odds we’ll see another window of lighter W-SW winds inshore early, lingering through the later morning north of the border under weak pressure gradients. We may see a strengthening of S/SW or even SW winds later in the day across the MNC as a trough deepens off the Hunter coast. Those winds are still in play depending on how the low moves. Keep tabs on local winds. Size in the 2-3ft range across NENSW S exposed breaks is expected, with a late kick in size possible on the MNC. Smaller 2ft surf is expected in SEQLD.

We’ll see things ramp back up again Thurs. A front enters the Tasman, decays into a trough and moves northwards along the coast in a pattern we’ve seen repeatedly this autumn. With the backing of a very strong high pressure gradients tighten quickly, bringing fresh/strong S’lies through the morning. We should see a  window of more offshore W-SW conditions so get on the early for some small, fun surf in the 2-3ft range. By lunch-time and into the a’noon a steep ramp up in new S swell is expected, with size building to 6ft+ by close of play in NENSW (8ft or more across exposed S facing river bars), smaller into more protected locations and just making the QLD border late in the day to 3-4ft.

Another robust day Fri with plenty of strong S/SE-SE swell from fetches in the Tasman, including the proximate fetch and multiple fetches near NZ as the remnants of todays low re-organize near the west coast of the North Island. That should see a muscular blend of swell trains in the 5-6ft range across NENSW with bigger sets at exposed S facing breaks and smaller 3-4ft surf in SEQLD. With a strong ridge up the sub-tropical coast and fresh S to S/SE winds you’ll need to tuck in behind a headland to find a clean wave. 

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

High pressure moves off the Southern NSW coast into the Tasman over the weekend but holds a strong ridge up the sub-tropical coast, enhanced by the trough or trough remnants moving north to be off the SEQLD coast on Sat. That should see a N-S gradient in windspeeds with mod/fresh S/SE-SE winds in SEQLD, tending lighter the further south you go and significantly lighter on the MNC. 

We should see a slight moderating trend over the weekend, more noticeable south of the border. You may need to be south of, say, Yamba to notice much of a shift apart from the southern Gold Coast where lighter SW winds inshore early are expected. 

Surf-wise, more of the muscular blend of SE swells for Sat, dominated by short range sources in the 3-5ft range, a notch smaller south of the border. 

Sunday should see a small drop in size but still hanging in the 3-4ft range at least. Expect smaller surf into the more protected inner Points. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

The dominant high moves over New Zealand early next week, becomes flat-topped and establishes a long, broad E’ly flow through the South Pacific slot and into the Coral Sea. There is some model divergence with the European model suggesting a bog standard but very healthy trade flow and plenty of E-E/SE swell for the sub-tropics, filtering down into the temperate regions through the week at reduced levels.

GFS is hinting at an E’ly dip, potentially deepening into a surface low SE of New Caledonia by mid week, which offers all sorts of potential for more major SE’ly swell for the region, likely from Wed. Still too early to have any confidence in specific outcomes. 

We’ll flag it for now, and see how it looks Wed.

At a minimum we’ll see swells from the eastern quadrant through next week, likely becoming sizier through the week with the large blocking high keeping the southern swell window quiet.

Check back Wed for latest updates.

Seeya then!