South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed 23rd April)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Winds switch more onshore Thurs (E/SE-E) with a peak in short range E’ly swell
• Traces of S’ly groundswell in the water Thurs/Fri
• Fun sized E’ly swell Fri with lighter E’ly winds
• Small blend for the weekend with light winds Sat, W-SW winds Sun, tending SW-S in NENSW
• Increase in S swell likely late Sun for MNC, rest of the region Mon into Tues with S/SE winds
• More E’ly swell likely from Tues next week

Recap

Small and clean yesterday with offshore winds and the occ. 2ft set providing a few fun beachies if you could find a bank. S’ly winds kicked up and blew out most spots in NENSW by lunch-time, afternoon in SEQLD. W-SW winds this morning were offering clean conditions but surf was small again, with magnets in the 2ft range and not much elsewhere. Surf is now building across the region, particularly the MNC to Yamba region as winds feed into a trough. Winds have now shifted S’ly to SE’ly and freshened. 

Small, clean swell magnets this morning- surf now building across the region

This week (Apr 23-25)

We’ve got a slow moving high sitting east of Tasmania and a trough of low pressure off the North Coast directing an onshore flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard and generating plenty of local swell. Not a great change through the rest of the week with the trough devolving into a trough line and sitting on the coast and a new trough of low pressure forming on the weekend. We’ll see some new short range S swell from that source, improving in quality as the trough forms a low and moves away from the coast. We’ve also got some sources of E’ly swell on the radar which will keep surf zones active. 

In the short run we’ll see the onshore flow continue overnight and into tomorrow likely at mod/fresh paces.  E’ly swell generated by a broad fetch of E’ly breezes in the Tasman, concentrated into the trough, will hold surf in the 3-4ft range, a notch smaller into more sheltered points.

As mentioned on Mon, a tropical low which moved through the South Pacific slot early this week before dipping behind the North Island, has generated some E’ly quadrant swell which looks to be in the water Fri morning. Expect soft patches and long waits but we should see some well shaped 3ft sets along with plenty of short range E/SE swell to 3-4ft. We’ll still see an onshore flow but pressure gradients to ease so E’ly winds should back down through the day, although surface conditions are likely to be very messy across most exposed breaks. 

This weekend (Apr 26-27) 

We’ve got more clarity on the weekend although expect some fine-tuning on timing on Fri. A trough will be lingering around the Central NSW area with a front approaching Tasmania. The sub-tropics remains in a weak pressure gradient environment with light winds, likely morning land breezes tending to variable winds. Leftover E swell to 3ft will be joined by short range E’ly swell to similar size from winds off the top of the high feeding into the approaching trough. There should be plenty of fun waves about Sat, sandbanks permitting. 

Sunday looks dynamic across Southern NSW but in the sub-tropics as the trough/low develops we should see a morning offshore flow tend NW-W/NW before ending up W. The S’ly change bought by the low may tickle the MNC region later in the day- we’ll fine-tune that on Fri. Another fun blend of E'ly swells- mostly shorter range from winds feeding into the trough- looks to hold 3ft surf, likely easing during the day. A late kick in new S swell is still a possibility for the MNC but Mon is now looking much more likely. 

Next week (Apr 28 onwards)

Under current modelling we’re looking at a complex synoptic map early next week with the Tasman low being the major swell generator. Sizey S swell and fresh SW-S winds Mon are on the cards with at least 5-6ft of S swell building across NENSW through the day, smaller 2-3ft in SEQLD at S facing beaches.

A broad E’ly fetch in the South Pacific between New Caledonia and the North Island, potentially enhanced by a tropical low looks to send more E’ly angled swell from later Tues into Wed. No great size but sets to 3ft are on the cards. 

A strong front passing through the lower Tasman adds some S swell into the mix during this time frame. 

We should see at least pockets of good winds through this time.

From mid week a dominant high is expected to move into position to set up a strong ridge along the East coast, possibly with a trough along the leading edge. That would set-up another round of onshore wind and short range SE-E swell as we moved into May. 

The high sets up a large E’ly fetch according to most recent model runs with a round of tradewind swell in the sub-tropics.

Another low in the Coral Sea is also a potential outcome later next week adding extra size to the pre-existing tradeswell if it moves into a favourable position. 

Check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then!