During this time frame a retreating but broad and long trade fetch will be supplying some background E’ly pulses.
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Unfortunately, compared to Fridays expectations the interplay between these two systems is weaker, with a more constrained fetch of lower windspeeds that drifts away quicker than modelled on Friday. That will result in smaller east quadrant swell this week, relative to Fridays expectations.
There’s still some model divergence later next week but for now we’ve got reasonable confidence a broad fetch will develop through the Northern Tasman as high pressure moves into the Tasman and supplies an anchor for the low.
We'll see plenty of surf surf from this system initially but there is broad model agreement we’ll see this low deepen and develop into a more powerful system mid/late next week as it drifts into a position north of the North Island. Best case scenario is a quality E’ly groundswell event from this system.
A strong front pushed into off the NSW coast the Tasman Sea overnight, and it’s generating a flush of south swell that’ll fill in this evening and provide a nice boost in surf size across Northern NSW on Tuesday.
We’ll see some nice S pulses over the weekend as multiple fetches operate on an active sea state. Favouring NENSW for size, with small background E swell padding out surf zones in SEQLD.
Compared to Mondays notes the outlook for S swell is improved, mostly due to a better aligned following front which conjoins the initial front and forms a slower moving low in the southern Tasman.
High pressure is well up over the centre of the continent with as weak, troughy area of low pressure moving offshore from the south coast dragging a cloud band with it and offering a W’ly flow in it’s wake. That W’ly flow looks to continue through the working week as a series of cold fronts sweep across the SE of the country.
The complex, coastal low is now dissipating and drifting towards New Zealand while high pressure drifts NE to sit over sub-tropical NSW/SEQLD tomorrow before entering the Tasman on Sunday with a broad low pushing across the interior of Victoria and NSW behind it.
Gales to severe gales from the S through SE will generate another large peak in size later today and through tomorrow from the secondary low slingshotting around the primary centre, focused on Southern/Central NSW with a much smaller payload being delivered north of the Hunter.