A trough line linked to the low extends from the Tasman Sea up into the Coral Sea past New Caledonia and over the next few days this trough deepens as it slowly moves East, activating an incredibly wide fetch of E to NE winds infeeding into it. We’re still looking good for a few days of quality surf from this source late in the week and into the weekend.
While this is happening a long trough line in the near South Pacific forms and deepens with a wind speeds increasing along a broad front due south of New Caledonia as they feed into the trough. Strong winds to gales feeding into the fetch through Tues-Thurs are expected to generate quality E/NE swell trains for the region.
The multiple fetches coming off a Tasman low near New Zealand anchored by a high just east of Tasmania are now starting to wane. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show a weakening fetch of SE winds in the Central/Northern Tasman and a thin fetch of strong winds out of Cook Strait. That will lead to a slow easing trend through tomorrow, accelerating into Fri and the start of the week-end.
The building blocks are now in place for an active week of surf from the SE. A complex, multi-centred low is stationed over New Zealand with a strong (1029hPa) high located equidistant between Tasmania and the South Island offering excellent cradling support for the low.
Surf prospects are definitely looking juicier for the first half of next week with a much more substantial fetch of S-SSE winds set up on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea as the decaying low reforms near New Zealand, aiming up some useful fetches towards the Eastern Seaboard.
Our Tasman Sea and Coral Sea swell windows remain very subdued as we move through the week. A monster, complex low system is slowly moving south of the Bight, expected to decay as it enters the Tasman Sea over the weekend.
We’ve finally come to a low spot in the current La Niña phase we are in with energy being dialled right back this week. The high pressure belt is moving at a more typical northerly latitude over interior Australia and with weaker, more mobile high pressure moving over the interior and into the Tasman, we are looking at a period of N’ly biased winds with W’ly oriented fronts being quickly shunted across the Tasman.
A much quieter period ahead as weak, spring-like conditions establish from Monday.
One of the features of this current La Niña phase has been long-lived swell events as low pressure lingers in the Tasman Sea. This current event is typical of that pattern. We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand.
Lovely looking map this morning with the weekend’s Coral Sea low low lingering near the North Island, having intensified overnight. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back (mostly) at NSW.