South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller swells from the E on Thurs/Fri with light morning winds tending to light SE-NE breezes 
• NE windswell expected Sat with fresh N’lies, favouring MNC for size
• Easing right back Sun with offshore winds
• Small E swells persist over the weekend
• Small for the first half of next week
• S pulses expected from mid next week- low confidence in outcomes so check back Fri
• Small E swells persist medium term

Recap

E’ly swells were in the 3-4ft range yesterday but despite light winds most spots suffered residual lump and bump through the day, even for the early. Size has held in a similar range today, albeit with less consistent sets. Again, most spots were suffering from lump/bump from residual onshore winds. Winds have shifted from W-NW to N or NE through the morning and are expected to veer more NW to W/NW later in the day. 

Another day of scrappy but workable E swell on the Superbank

This week (July 21-25)

A front and trough are now moving over the east of the continent, pushing a NE flow to the east and bringing offshore then SW-S winds as they clear the coast. High pressure then moves over the inland of NSW and slowly exits into the Tasman late Fri into Sat. We’ll see the current pattern repeat as a pre-frontal N’ly flow ramps over the weekend before a front and low bring a stiff W’ly change. The low looks to be slow moving bringing W’ly winds and not much swell before being whisked away to the SE. They next short range feature looks juicier with models now hinting at a stronger front or even slow moving cut-off low in the Tasman from mid next week, that would suggest stronger S swell as we move into August.

In the short run, we’ll see smaller surf from the E tomorrow, with mostly 2ft sets, an occ. 3 footer, clean under morning W tending SW winds. A weak SW-S fetch adjacent to Tasmania and the South Coast will generate a minor flush of S swell that will see S facing beaches up into the 2 occ. 3ft range later in the day, mostly confined to NENSW with SEQLD only seeing tiny surf from this source.

Friday sees more small S swell which holds in the 2-3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, barely showing in SEQLD. There’ll be some mid period E swell in the mix as well as E’ly winds off the top of a strong high near New Zealand continue to feed into a trough. Expect mostly 2 with occ 3ft sets from this source.  With high pressure moving over the state winds will drop out with light morning land breezes and light a’noon E/SE tending NE seabreezes. 

This weekend (July 26-27)

N’lies still ramping up into Sat morning, reaching fresh paces in NENSW, lighter in SEQLD, and tending N/NW through the a’noon. Still looking like we’ll see workable NE windswell in the 2-3ft range developing on the MNC, grading smaller the further north you go and not amounting to much north of the border. Residual E’ly swells will do the heavy lifting there with size hovering in the 2ft range, occ. 3ft set.

Almost all gone for Sun with W-W/NW winds possibly tending NW though the day and  small surf from the E- offering up an occ. 2ft set. There should be enough energy for some small, clean beachies.

Next week (July 28 onwards)

A low is expected to sulk just E of Tasmania through Mon, moving away to the SE on Tues and with high pressure up in the sub-tropics we’ll see a W tending W/NW or even NW flow to start the week. Tiny surf continues, mostly small E’ly swells that will be lucky to throw up the occ. 2ft set (mostly 1ft or so). So pencil in a couple of tiny days unless something changes drastically in the short term.

From there things get more interesting. 

A front and potential cut-off low are expected to form Wed. At this stage GFS is suggesting a strong front and weak low which skips away, leading to a quick spike in S swell Thurs.

EC has a much more bullish outlook with a robust cut-off low sitting in the Tasman for the second half of next week. Under this scenario we’d see an initial spike in S swell followed by more favourable S/SE swell late in the week or into the weekend.

Lack of model agreement leads to low confidence in outcomes so check back Fri and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

During this time frame a retreating but broad and long trade fetch will be supplying some background E’ly pulses, none of which are expected to exceed an inconsistent 2-3ft. 

Uncertain outlook but a mix of swells from the south and east is the short take home.

We’ll continue to dial in details when we come back on Fri.

Seeya then.