South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri July 25th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• NE windswell expected Sat with fresh N’lies, favouring MNC for size- not much north of Yamba
• Easing right back Sun with offshore winds
• Small E swells persist over the weekend
• Small for the first half of next week- mostly small E’ly swells
• Small S swell likely laster Tues or Wed (NENSW only)
• Small E swells persist medium term
• Uncertain outlook later next week, possible low in Tasman off NENSW coast with sizey S/SE swell next weekend- low confidence in specifics so check back Mon for updates

Recap

E swells hung in there yesterday in the 2-3ft range with some bigger sets reported north of Byron and much improved quality thanks to offshore winds which tended to light S-SE breezes in the a’noon. Clean conditions this morning but size is easing down more into the 2 occ. 3ft range with some small S swell also in the mix in NENSW adding energy of similar size at S facing beaches. 

Getting smaller but still a fun blend of swells on the exposed breaks

This weekend (July 26-27)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure has drifted up over NENSW and  into the Tasman and an approaching trough and cut-off low really ramps up the pressure gradient short term, leading to fresh/strong N/NE-N’ly winds off the NSW coast, lighter off SEQLD. Inshore we’ll see those winds between 10-15 kts through the morning tending stronger N’ly through the day and generating small NE windswells for the MNC up to Yamba, not much further north of there. Small background E swells from winds feeding into the retreating trough will hold some 2ft sets through the day. Most beaches will be wind affected early so you’ll need to hit up the backbeaches for a clean wave. 

Winds shift W-W/NW overnight and into the morning, veering NW then W’ly at times at fresh paces through Sun. NE windswell will have left the building so we’ll be looking at small E’ly swells for the main swell source. Not much energy there apart from the occ. 2ft set. Worth a look if you can find somewhere a little protected from the stiff offshore. 

Next week (July 28 onwards)

The cut-off low which approaches the SE of the continent on the weekend moves SE over Tasmania late on the weekend and drifts SE of the island state through Mon, holding a W’ly flow across the eastern seaboard, weaker as you head north into the sub-tropics. 

Not much size to start the new week. The retreating E’ly fetch in the South Pacific will maintain background E’ly swells with some possible embedded pulses but not offering much more than an inconsistent 2ft through Mon and Tues, a notch bigger Wed. Conditions will be offshore so it will be worth a look around if you have a nice small wave bank on tap. We should see even a notch more size into Thurs/Fri as the fetch thickens, even as it slowly retreats. Nothing major, but an occ. inconsistent 3ft set. 

The low near Tasmania does have a weak front attached early next week capable of a small flush of S swell likely into Wed and offering 2ft surf at S swell magnets in NENSW

From mid next week things still look interesting but models have been all over the place trying to resolve it so expect major revisions when we come back Mon. 

Low pressure formation looks likely, possibly a strong cut-off low moving into the Tasman Thurs and offering an initial spike in S swell Fri before better angled S/SE swell into the weekend if the low hangs around in the south-east Tasman near the South Island. 

There is also the chance the low is weak and gets whisked away quickly with only a brief, small flush of S swell later next week. 

EC is also suggesting , after this weak low gets whisked away we see low pressure formation off the sub-tropical coast of SEQLD or NENSW with potential for SE-E/SE swells there into the first weekend of Aug. 

Again, poor model to model and run to run consistency leads to low confidence. 

We’ll keep eyes on it and see how it looks Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!