South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon July 21st)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller, but still fun E’ly swells through Tues and Wed
• Winds shifting N/NE Tues, then N through NW Wed
• Small leftovers from the E on Thurs/Fri with light winds tending to light SE breezes 
• NE windswell expected Sat with fresh N’lies, favouring MNC for size
• Easing right back Sun with offshore winds
• Small for the first half of next week
• Small S pulses expected from mid next week- favouring south of the border S magnets

Recap

Small S to S/SE swells offered some fun waves in NENSW over the weekend, remaining small and weak in SEQLD under SW-S winds. Sat was in the 2 occ. 3ft range in NENSW, a notch bigger Sun with size in the 1-2ft range in SEQLD, bigger 2ft on Sun. Today has seen a more significant increase in E-E/SE swell with widespread 3 occ. 4ft surf under early W-SW winds, now shifting S/SSE. Nothing especially powerful but offering a good spread of surf across beachies and points.

Fun E'ly energy spread across the Superbank

This week (July 21-25)

We’ve got a high in the Tasman and a low pressure north of the North Island as we start the new week. Unfortunately, compared to Fridays expectations the interplay between these two systems is weaker, with a more constrained fetch of lower windspeeds that drifts away quicker than modelled on Friday. That will result in smaller east quadrant swell this week, relative to Fridays expectations. So, small and fun from the east this week. We’ll see N’ly winds increase as we head into the weekend in response to an approaching cut-off low in the Bight,  with some workable NE windswell now on the radar for this period. Other than that, nothing significant short or medium term as we start the week. 

In the short run we’ll see E’ly swell from the low/high combo hold in the 3-4ft range although sets will be inconsistent. Early winds from the W will shift E though E/NE then NE and freshen through the a’noon, particularly south of Byron-Ballina. 

Those winds should shift more NW into Wed, tending N/NE then NW again in the a’noon. Points will be wind affected by the northerly quadrant but there should be plenty of clean beachie options with E’ly swells holding in that 3ft range with an occ. bigger set on offer. 

The latter part of the working week will see size dribble away with residual E swells to 2-3ft Thurs, down even further Fri. A long trough of low pressure does form in the Tasman later this week and while current modelling has a constrained fetch confined to the eastern Tasman there is a chance we could see a little bump in size from E’ly winds feeding into the trough. We’ll see how that looks on Wed.

Wind-wise, a weak S’ly change o/night Wed into Thurs see light W-SW winds Thurs, tending to light S’lies.

Light winds and clean conditions Fri morning tending to NE breezes in the a’noon as a new high moves off the NSW coast.

This weekend (July 26-27)

We’ll see N’lies ramp right up Sat as a low approaches from the west. Small early from the E with 2ft surf expected. As N-N/NE winds ramp up through the a’noon we should see NE windswell build to 3ft on the MNC, grading smaller as you head north. The head of the fetch is expected to still be off SEQLD so some workable NE windswell is possible there but it’ll definitely favour the MNC for size.

That NE windswell drops out quickly Sun as the low shunts the fetch away eastwards and brings an offshore flow. NW winds will shift W/NW  to W’ly through the day and we’ll see become tiny through the a’noon after a few clean 2 footers for the early.

Next week (July 28 onwards)

Not much expected to start there new week. The low is expected to stall near Tasmania, and with high pressure right up in the sub-tropics we’ll see a stiff W’ly-W/NW’ly flow through Mon and possibly into Tues (lighter up in SEQLD) with tiny surf.

S swells should resume from mid-week, either as a result of fronts pushing proximate to the NSW coast or the low developing a fetch SE of Tasmania- models are offering divergent outputs there.

Nothing too sizey at this stage, although longer term GFS has a monster low under the continent as we head into August, better positioned for the southern states but still offering possibility of S’ly groundswell wrap for the Eastern seaboard.

We’ll see how it looks on Wed.