South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed July 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small S swell filling in Fri, favouring NENSW
• Small background E swells this weekend
• Stronger S pulse filling in Sat with offshore winds tending S-SE
• S pulse extends into Sun with sizey surf at S facing beaches in NENSW, and offshore winds tending N’ly
• Easing swells into next week
• More small S pulses medium term with offshore winds- typical winter pattern

Recap

Not much swell energy in the water this week with yesterday seeing minor E to S swells to 1-1.5ft across most of the region with a few 2footers at NENSW swell magnets like Ballina topping out the scale. Conditions were clean to ruffled under mod/fresh offshore winds before tending N’ly in the a’noon. Even smaller into today with surf lapping on the shore or just breaking and W winds tending mod NW through the day. Better news ahead for S exposed coasts, reads on for details.

Winter sand formations forming on Gold Coast

This week (July 9-11)

A weak synoptic pattern over the continent is about to be replaced by a series of troughs and fronts sweeping up from the SW. We’ll see freshening pre-frontal NW winds shift W then W/SW as the fronts and parent low enter the Tasman. Compared to Mondays notes the outlook for S swell is improved, mostly due to a better aligned following front which conjoins the initial front and forms a slower moving low in the southern Tasman.

In the short run, freshening NW winds tomorrow, shifting fresh/strong W’ly through the a’noon. Babyfood through the morning with tiny background E swells possibly offering a very occ. 2ft set but mostly 1-1.5ft through the day.

More S swell in the water Fri but this initial pulse will be fairly modest- It’s only a constrained fetch that skips away quickly. Size in the 3ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW,  easing while SEQLD is likely to stay tiny with only the best S swell magnets showing a 2ft wave. Winds will be basically W’ly at mod/fresh paces, veering W/SW then SW as the next front pushes through Bass Strait. By close of play winds will be backing off, especially in SEQLD where they should lay right down through the late a’noon.

This weekend (Jul 12-13)

High pressure moves over inland NSW and a front and low move into the Tasman through Sat. That will see a W-W/SW flow for the morning tend to light S-SE breezes in the a’noon under a weak ridge. We should see a really nice kick in new S swell through Sat, focused on the after lunch session as the stronger following fetch does it’s work generating new swell. Early morning will have some new energy from the Bass Strait portion of the fetch Fri with size to 3ft across S facing beaches in NENSW, tiny in SEQLD. Through the a’noon we should see that build into the 4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW, with some 2 footers showing at SEQLD swell magnets. In the background should be a little boost in long range E/SE swell from a fetch well to the SE of New Zealand currently active. Expect inconsistent 2 occ. 3ft sets from that source (more 2ft than 3ft).

Sunday morning now looks very good at S facing beaches and reefs across NENSW. Light W’ly breezes through the morning, tending to light N-NE breezes through most of the f/cast region. Sat a’noons increase holds at similar or a touch bigger size into Sun through the morning session with great 4-5ft sets in NENSW at S facing beaches with some 2-3ft surf at SEQLD S swell magnets. Background E/SE swell holds at similar size to Sat, offering A-frame opportunities at select beach breaks. 

Next week (July 14 onwards)

More fronts and lows pushing into the Tasman next week, although nothing major at this stage. We should see winds swing pre-frontal NW Mon before swinging W’ly as another front pushes through, tied to a parent low which tracks NE into the Tasman Sun into Mon. 

Small waves Mon (small leftovers to 2ft from the E and S) but through Tues PM we’ll see a small pulse of S swell to 2-3ft across NENSW S facing beaches (tiny in SEQLD)with winds swinging more SW through Tues as a small low forms offshore and moves away to the East.

That pulse then eases into Wed with small S swells padding out the week. The frontal progressions are zonal so we’re only looking at small pulses in the 2-3ft range for now into the end of the working week. Still a possibility they could look better when we come back Fri.

Medium term looks like more of the same: high pressure up over the continent, moving NE into the Tasman with W’ly episodes and small S swells, tiny north of the border.

Pretty typical winter pattern. Let’s come back Fri and see if it holds. 

Seeya then.