South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer(issued Mon Nov 11th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small blend of NE and E swells this week
• Small, flukey pulse of long period S swell Tues/Wed week 
• Flukey winds again, variable in NENSW, more N’ly in SEQLD
• Small SE swells this weekend under a light onshore flow
• Freshening N’lies Sun, with NE windswell on the MNC
• We may see some more useful S swells next week
• Long range tradeswell and E swells also on the radar, although low confidence this far out

Recap

Not much action on the weekend with Sat seeing minor 1-2ft surf with light winds tending SE-NE in the a’noon. Sunday was smaller but still rideable for kids and learners and clean under light winds (super glassy slack winds in the morning). Almost flat across SEQLD-NENSW this morning apart from some small S swell across the MNC with light winds tending N-NE through the day.

Very, very tiny and weak in SEQLD

A little more energy on the MNC with no real quality

This week (Nov 11-15)

Another unstable, troughy week ahead with humid, unstable air over the continent creating a series of troughs, one of which forms a slow moving trough of low pressure off the Mid North Coast which interacts with a weak high pressure cell drifting in the Tasman. That will supply some workable E quadrant swell favouring temperate NSW. S’ly groundswell generated SW of Tasmania on the weekend should make landfall tomorrow, although very patchily. A decaying front looks to bring a shallow change Thurs before another high moves into the Tasman over the weekend. The troughy pattern looks persistent into next week so expect lots of wind changes and constant revisions as models struggle to resolve the dynamic and unstable atmosphere. 

In the short run the trough looks to consolidate due of Port Macquarie overnight near Lord Howe Is, before drifting south through Tues. We should see light winds through the morning across the region, tending SW-S then SE up to about Ballina, with more N’ly winds north of there. There may be some periods of lighter wind around storm cells and just general troughiness so keep tabs on local winds. Surf-wise, we should see inconsistent S’ly groundswell showing 2-3ft sets at S facing beaches in the a’noon with E’ly swells hovering in the 2ft range across NENSW, 1-2ft in SEQLD.

Leftover S groundswell Wed offers up some 2 occ. 3ft sets at S swell magnets in NENSW, tiny elsewhere. E/SE swell from the infeed into the trough will favour MNC to North Coast with some 2ft waves while SEQLD remains generally tiny and weak and less than 2ft. Winds should generally be under 10 knots across the North Coast to MNC and variable all day with a slightly stronger N-NE flow across SEQLD, so even if onshore, conditions should stay workable all day. 

Easing swells Thurs as the trough continues to move south out of the swell window. Back to mostly 1-2ft or less, slightly bigger on the MNC. A decaying front brings a light S’ly change that runs out of steam quickly and lays down to light S/SE breezes in the a’noon. We should see the change across the North Coast very early in the morning, reaching the border by mid-morning. 

The front looks to generate some minor S’ly windswell on Fri- up into the 2ft range but with poor quality. Winds will shift from light S’ly around to SE’ly breezes as a new high pressure ridge builds up the coast. There should be a low energy grovel for the keen on Friday.

This weekend (Nov 16-17)

The high sits far enough south to generate some small short range SE swell for Sat, into the 2ft range with an onshore but light E’ly  flow. Just a small grovel for the keen.

Sunday looks less inviting  with the high moving E and a stiff proximate N’ly fetch developing along the NSW Central Coast as an inland trough and cut-off low approach from the West. We should see the N’ly fetch extend up to the MNC with some small NE windswell developing there in the a’noon. Further north we’ll see more light E tending E/NE winds with small windswells from the E to 2ft. 

Next week (Nov18 onwards)

A sharp trough and front push through o/night Sun or early Mon and bring a S’ly change up to the MNC during the day, extending up to the border by nightfall or overnight. We may see a brief window of NW-N winds Mon before the change. Either way NE windswell holds to 2ft early before easing during the day. Small E’ly swells pad out the wave climate with some 1-2ft energy. 

Confidence in specifics takes a nose dive from there as the trough lingers in the Tasman, possibly forming another trough of low pressure as a front moves through Tues/Wed.

We should see some kind of S swell generated by the trough Tues or Wed. A stronger S swell may be on the cards following that depending on how the trough responds to the front. A tradewind band strengthens next week but it’s a long way off- from Fijian to Tahitian longitudes. It may be a source of small background E swell into the medium/long term, we’ll see how it shapes up through the week.

A trough in the South Pacific may see a fetch near the North Island early next week which may see some E-E/SE swell mid next week. Models are divergent so lets flag it for now and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then.