South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Jan 10th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, just-rideable surf becoming established over the weekend with light winds, tending more E/SE-SE in SEQLD, E/NE-NE in NENSW
• Small increase in E’ly swells likely from Tues, holding into Wed/Thurs as small low forms off SEQLD and moves southwards
• Possible spike in S swell later Fri into Sat (NENSW only)
• Small, building E/SE swell on the cards for Sun/Mon depending on movement of low
• Very dynamic outlook with poor model agreement so check back Mon for latest updates

Recap

Small, clean S swells yesterday topped out around 3ft at S facing beaches in NENSW, 2-3ft in SEQLD (D-Bah mostly) with early light winds and clean conditions giving way to NE breezes and storms. Still the odd 3ft set in NENSW today with SEQLD dropping below 2ft (most beaches 1-2ft) under light winds tending NE.

Still an easy run out the Bar but a few rideable waves on hand

This weekend (Jan 11-12)

 No great change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure drifting towards New Zealand and a broad inland low maintain a mod E-NE flow across most of the Eastern Seaboard. 

The current SE-E/SE swell fades out with small E-E/NE swells hanging in there to 2ft through Sat. 

Not much difference to conditions or surf size on Sun. Compared to expectations on Wed we should see winds stay a little lighter through Sun with early light breezes tending to mod a’noon NE breezes. We may see winds shift a little SE-E/SE across SEQLD on Sun in response to a trough line. Stay tuned to your local wind obs.

Nothing amazing but there should be a small, surfable wave on hand. 

Next week (Jan 13 onwards)

Weak high pressure in the Tasman with a very unstable air mass drifting eastwards over the continent. We should see a couple of days of light winds with weak E-NE breezes in NENSW, tending S-SE in SEQLD and small E/NE windswells to 1-2ft through Mon and Tues.

During this time, models are suggesting a small trough of low pressure will bud off the inland low and drift into the Coral Sea off the SEQLD Coast, which enhances the SE flow through SEQLD, extending down into NENSW by Tues, although winds will remain E/NE-NE south of Coffs.

Initially the localised fetch will benefit the sub-tropics with a useful increase in E  swell from Tues into Thurs. Nothing major but we should see 2 occ. 3ft surf develop through this time frame.

From there, outcomes become prone to very large error bars. The crux of it is the fate of the inland trough of low pressure as it approaches the Tasman. 

GFS suggests the inland trough moves Northwards, with a trough spawning a small low east of Tasmania and rapidly deepens o/night into Fri with strong winds to gales developing off the south coast and Bass Strait (see below). Under this scenario we would expect a small spike in new S swell later Fri into Sat constrained by swell shadowing from the Hunter Curve, up into the 3-4ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW. The low then washes out and becomes absorbed into the general trough of low pressure hovering in the inland. Local S swells rapidly ease into the weekend, then rebuild as an E’ly infeed into the low extends out towards the North Island through the Tasman. This would see a new E/SE swell fill in through later Sun into Mon.

More low pressure then potentially forms off the QLD coast and in the lower Tasman later in the week. 

The EC prognosis is for a low off the Far South Coast to stall next to the coast with no real S’ly flow expected and a minor NE infeed initially, drawing out into the Tasman over the weekend and generating useful E/NE swells. 

With poor run to run and model to model consistency confidence is very low on outcomes. Check back Mon and keep fingers crossed one of the more surf-filled outcomes is still a live possibility.

Until then, have a great weekend!