South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wed 22 Jan)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Smaller mix of swells Thurs, easing S'ly winds in most areas (NW on SC at dawn), becoming light by the a'noon
• Tricky outlook for Friday with a small swell combo including some N'ly swell in SE Qld, and freshening N'ly winds that may become NW then variable ahead of a S'ly change
• Punchy south swell for Northern NSW on Sat, initially bumpy with easing S/SE winds, best in the a'noon
• Small leftovers Sun with early light winds
• More S'ly swell events early/mid next week that'll favour Northern NSW, and not SE Qld

Recap

Tuesday delivered a strong mix of initially easing SE then rebuilding E/SE swell, with some parts of the Mid North Coast picking up 5-6ft sets, smaller in the north around 4ft and up into SE Qld where the southern points held 2-3ft but exposed northern ends managed 4ft sets. Winds were light offshore early ahead of afternoon NE sea breezes. Easing surf today was accompanied by early light NW winds before freshening northerlies kicked in (trending more NE on the Mid North Coast). A southerly change has reached the Central/Hunter Coasts (gusting 38kts) and should push into the Mid North Coast into the evening.

Still some decent sets at D'Bah lunchtime today

This week (Jan 23 - 24)

The approaching southerly change should be getting close to the Qld border around dawn, so most Northern NSW locations can expect some influence from it at first light - but it’s expected to peter out rapidly, with much lighter winds becoming prevalent by lunchtime, potentially light and variable by late afternoon.

Variable winds are likely on the Gold Coast at dawn, trending NW wind up into the Sunshine Coast but the synoptic flow should relax everywhere by mid-late morning.

As for surf, we’ll see an easing mix of E/SE swell from today plus a minor flush of south swell from the fetch trailing tonight’s change (not much though, the fetch will be narrow in width, and brief in duration). So maybe some wind affected 3ft sets at exposed beaches in Northern NSW, smaller inside southern corners, and smaller again throughout SE Qld (not a lot happening on the points). 

Late afternoon should also see a new flush of E/SE swell from a fetch that developed off the North Island of New Zealand earlier this week. No major size is expected but we should see 2-3ft sets from this source, smaller into SE Qld and again, not a great deal for the regional points.

As such, I reckon the afternoon is your best chance for a wave across Northern NSW as we’ll see better conditions by this time. Of course, local sand will continue to play a dominant factor in your success. SE Qld could swing either way, at any time of the day. 

Looking into Friday and freshening northerly winds will create issues for SE Qld and Far Northern NSW. 

However, it’s not all bad news, as initially feared in Monday's notes 

First of all, the northerly flow will be unusually long (for a pre-frontal system), extending up into the Central Qld coast, which improves the prospects of northerly swell - mainly across the Gold, Tweed and Byron Coasts, and to a lesser degree Sunshine and Ballina coasts. 

Additionally, there’s been a few slight tweaks to the model guidance since Monday, and we may see local NW winds in a few spots north from Ballina, which means open beaches could have workable options. 

And lastly, an approaching southerly change is due into the Mid North Coast late morning, Yamba early afternoon and the border late afternoon. Ahead of the change we’ll see light variable winds for a period of a few hours or so, which will also open up opportunities for surfers. 

As for swell, there’ll be a mix of easing S’ly and E/SE swells from Thursday (2-3ft exposed beaches in Northern NSW, smaller in SE Qld) however the aforementioned northerly swell may also provide some 2-3ft sets at exposed parts of the southern Gold Coast and Tweed Coast, with smaller options elsewhere. 

So the take home message for Friday is to keep a flexible diary based on the lolcal winds, and pounce if you see anything worthwhile. 

This weekend (25 - 26)

A small Tasman Low will develop off Southern NSW on Friday, associated with the southerly change. 

As suggested in Wednesday’s notes, I’m not keen on the alignment of this system, however the models have consolidated their outlook which improves forecast confidence, and it now looks like we’ll see a punchy south swell for Saturday, albeit it with lingering S/SE winds early on. They’ll ease through the day but it’ll take a while for surf conditions to improve across the coast. 

South facing beaches south of Byron should pick up 4-5ft sets, elsewhere will be much smaller, and unfortunately for SE Qld I don’t think we’ll see much surf across the semi-exposed points, which is a shame as they’ll offer the best conditions. Let’s ballpark 1-2ft waves here with wind affected 3ft+ surf elsewhere. 

Conditions should improve throughout the day everywhere though.

Sunday has a new southerly swell inbound, generated by a broad though unremarkable polar low and front currently tracking well south of Tasmania. This should increase most south facing beaches south of Byron into the 2-3ft range through the day, with smaller surf elsewhere and not a lot north of the border. 

Conditions will be much better with light variable winds and sea breezes. 

I'll fine tune the numbers on Friday.

Next week (27 onwards)

A stronger, slightly more northern storm track - though less favourably aligned - will push under Tasmania on the weekend, generating some small sideband south swell for Northern NSW during the start of next week. 

This will then be followed by an intense low south of Tasmania around Tuesday - again, poorly aligned within our swell window - but displaying very long swell periods (18+ seconds) that could exaggerate surf heights across south swell magnets considerably around Wednesday afternoon or Thursday.

It’s too early to hone in on specific sizes, so I’ll take a closer look on Friday - however, although this could be a major swell producer for Victoria, I think the poor alignment and Tasmania’s shadowing effects will likely downplay this system’s potential for NSW surfers. It won't do anything for SE Qld either.

Long term prospects beyond this are too tricky to have confidence in right now, but overall it does look like we should see a return to a more seasonal trade flow pattern by the end of the month or early February.

See you Friday!