Decent spell of pumping waves ahoy!

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Fri Jan 17)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Strong SE winds spreading north from the MNC throughout Saturday, though light in SE Qld and Far Northern NSW for most of the day
  • Mix of fun E'ly swell and building S'ly groundswell (becoming large into the a'noon, south of the border)
  • Windy swell mix for Sunday, large south of the border, fun waves across most points
  • Solid SE groundswell arriving in Northern NSW later Mon/Tues with better conditions as winds ease from the south
  • Fun E'ly swell in SE Qld Mon/Tues/Wed with good winds (chance for lingering S'lies on the SC on Mon)
  • Pulse of punchy E/SE swell in Northern NSW later Tues/Wed with good winds

Recap

Freshening NE winds and peaky NE windswells provided low quality surf across most regions on Thursday morning, however a band of intense thunderstorms pushed across the coast early afternoon, creating clean conditions in the trailing airstream and offering fun waves for the late session. Note: this wasn’t the early arrival of the southerly change, it was merely the outflow breeze in the lee of the thunderstorm. In its wake, the Sunshine Coast saw NW winds at the airport but W/SW at North West 10 Beacon (off Bribie), the Seaway went SE but Coolangatta was S’ly, while Cape Byron swung E/NE. The actual southerly change was delayed by a few hours, reaching Coffs Harbour around 5pm and Byron Bay around 8:45pm. Strong southerly swells have offered a wide range in wave heights today, from 6ft across the Mid North Coast (wind affected with fresh SW breezes, strong in the south) to 3-4ft in Far Northern NSW where conditions have been clean under light SW winds. However most of SE Qld has dipped out from this event (as expected), except for a handful of reliable south swell magnets, thanks to the acute south swell direction. As a side note, Southern NSW has built in size all day and south facing beaches are now pushing a stormy 10ft.

D'Bah picked up some fun S'ly swell this morning, despite most of the Gold Coast remaining tiny

This weekend (Jan 18 - 19)

A deep low pressure system off the Mid North Coast will track northwards over the weekend bringing strong to gale force S/SE thru' SE winds to most regions at some point.

Early Saturday should see most of Mid North Coast under this pattern, spreading to Yamba by mid-late morning, Ballina by early afternoon and the Gold Coast late afternoon. 

Ahead of this SE change, winds are likely to be initially light SW tending moderate S’ly. I’ll update in the comments below if I see any major differences in coastal observations to the present model guidance.  

As for surf, in addition to some long range E'ly swell (from a tropical low in the north-eastern Tasman Sea earlier this week), and a new short range E/SE swell (that could build ahead of the SE wind change, thanks to strong winds already developing off the coast) we’ll also have a large S’ly swell moving up the coast, that’s impacting Southern NSW today. 

Wave heights are likely to peak in the 6-8ft range at south facing breaches south of Byron, though the more northern locations (i.e. Far Northern NSW) will see this peak later in the day, whilst southern locations (Mid North Coast) will pick up the increase earlier. So, expect the morning’s more favourable conditions to be undersized. Northern NSW probably has the most potential to pick up any noticeable size increase before the wind change arrives.

Of course, locations not open to the south will be much smaller, and once the wind swings you’ll have to tuck into those sheltered southern corners and points. 

As for SE Qld, it’s a tricky call.

The southerly swell direction really won’t get into most of the Gold and Sunshine Coast, however we will see both some E’ly groundswell and - eventually - a late increase in short range E/SE swell from the developing fetch moving up the coast, associated with the coastal low.

I’m expecting inconsistent, building sets into the 3ft range across the semi-exposed points and open beaches in SE Qld on Saturday, and with light winds for the most part conditions should be favourable. It’ll be slow but should be fun. 

Gusty S/SE winds will then dominate Sunday, along with a mix of swells from the south thru’ east. Exposed south facing beaches in Northern NSW should offer 6-8ft sets early (easing during the day) with smaller surf at remaining beaches and along the regional points.

SE Qld will see a smaller mix of swells from these sources, up to 3-4ft across semi-exposed points (much smaller at sheltered points) and a wind affected 4-6ft at south swell magnets. Of course, the points will offer the only workable options under these winds. 

Next week (Jan 20 onwards)

As mentioned in Wednesday’s notes, the Tasman Sea currently has a number of active low pressure centers, driving strong winds from a couple of directions across various parts of the basin.

The best low for Northern NSW/SE Qld surfers is already sitting just north of New Zealand, and is generating E’ly swells that will feed into Sunday’s mix and provide solid 4ft waves across most exposed coasts, holding into Monday. Sets will be a little inconsistent but overall I'm a big fan of swells from these kinds of systems; the fetches are slow moving which seems to increase the size/energy ratio in our favour.

The low will then track into the north-eastern Tasman Sea over the weekend, strengthening easterly gales that will generate another round of solid E’ly swell due to arrive sometime later Tuesday and hold into Wednesday morning. Unfortunately, this part of the storm pattern will be more focused towards Southern NSW but we’ll still see a decent spread back into Northern NSW, and to a lesser degree SE Qld. With the SE groundswell on Mon/Tues easing back in size, this new swell (that’ll be more E/SE in Northern NSW and maybe even SE throughout SE Qld) should provide 3-5ft sets south of the border on Wednesday, and 2-3ft north of the border (up to 4ft at some reliable swell magnets),

Even better, Tuesday’s conditions should be perfect everywhere with light variable winds and sea breezes, ahead of a light northerly cropping up on Wednesday - it doesn’t look too detrimental but we’ll keep an eye on things. 

So, there’s plenty on the boil.. Have a great weekend and see you Monday!

Comments

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 9:10pm

wow.
That was an absolute pleasure to read.

Lougher's picture
Lougher's picture
Lougher Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 9:55pm

Matsons forecasts are another level aren't they

Lougher's picture
Lougher's picture
Lougher Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 9:56pm

+.coastline knowledge

theinsider's picture
theinsider's picture
theinsider Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:48am

+ there is actual swell and decent winds to talk about... informing the punters about another week incoming of flat surf and onshore winds must get a bit droll for ye olde surf forecasters.

surfinado's picture
surfinado's picture
surfinado Friday, 17 Jan 2025 at 9:43pm

Yewww, really do appreciate the depth and detail Ban \m/

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:48am

yes Bens forecast was pretty much spot on, great site ...thanks.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 9:44am

Still tiny southern GC. Reckon the arvo still looks okay Ben?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 11:26am

Yep.. arvo looking good on the southern points.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 11:32am

Copy. House work now then

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 8:16pm

Sorry Mate, looks like it was a premature estimation.

Should be happening in the next few hours though, if you've got a good set of halogens.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 10:08am

Managed to score some very fun lefts this morning. Surfed my asym fish and surfing backside on it just feels amazing!
Everywhere else looked worse than yesterday but this spot was fun as.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 11:29am

Super fun waves on the Tweed this morning, 3ft+ sets and good winds. Lifeguards has cleared the water an hour prior due to a shark, but I didn't see anything while I was out there (plenty of people in the water too so no-one was fussed).

Looks like the southerly change is running ahead of schedule, it's already into Evans and should be through Byron soon.

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 12:03pm

Everytime I'm about to paddle out on the Tweed somebody has just spotted a farking shark.

Hoff72's picture
Hoff72's picture
Hoff72 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 2:33pm

I was in the water when the lifeguards sent the drone out and came over the drone speaker that a shark was nearby and everyone to clear the water. All the swimmers got out but not one surfer got out.

Half the Fcking goldy where I surfed this morning. :(

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 12:27pm

Sad news, a fella passed at Froggies this morning. 62 year old local bloke. RIP mate, thoughts to family and friends and all the legends that tied so hard to save him

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:09pm

Terrible!
Medical episode or knocked out?

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:59pm

Medical episode by the looks of it mate, he wasn't surfing

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 12:51pm

Anyone know what time the usher cup finishes this arvo? Gonna wait for around 3pm (QLD) this arvo to head out, waiting for that low at 6pm for the points to shape up. Its still looking at log size this arvo, looking to tomorrow mornings early low tide and swell increase to really get something rippable going on the points hopefully!

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:16pm

Live stream, see when they end...

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:11pm

2-3ft E lines, but junk up here this morning.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:25pm

JonoSaturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 12:03pm
Everytime I'm about to paddle out on the Tweed somebody has just spotted a farking shark.

These Huge Tides Jono.... gurgling in around that Festering Whale Carcass then Seeping Oily Slick into the Surf.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 1:47pm

Great point Udo, the talk and action all ramped up around the Christmas new moon.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 2:30pm

Some fun waves even on the higher tide but half of Rio was out there.
Never seen a higher percentage of Brazzos in the water, as least they were pretty chilled.

hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 2:41pm

No swell here of any interest other than long range south fat shoulder close outs

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 3:12pm

the pass is still lapping at the ankles. i doubt any swell will reach se qld by this arvo

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 3:25pm

Should be some thing by Dusk .

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 3:29pm

Last light is still five hours away.. don't write it off yet!

S/SE winds gusting 30kts at Evans Head, Byron gusting 24kts, but it's almost calm on the Tweed. Won't be far off though.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 3:16pm

Energy on the Tweed has dropped significantly since this morning. Shame cause the conditions are really good.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 3:28pm

Yeah weird, just did a drive by, and it's smaller than earlier. Sunny Coast is picking up the E swell but Goldy not so much. Large and windy in Yamba though!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 4:06pm

Southerly change just hit my place on the Tweed.

simba's picture
simba's picture
simba Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 4:07pm

yes se ripping into north of coffs along with rain

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 4:17pm

Freeride will be under the House tonight pulling out the Brewer for tmoro..

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 5:27pm

.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 5:24pm

BOM sill calling large and powerful surf conditions...maybe the extended flat period has made me cynical but there's no sign of any swell at Dbah or Cooly

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 5:37pm

Very raggedy building 3-4ft windswell here with howling southerlies.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 6:59pm

Good to finally get back on the shorty!

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:01pm

waves were fun this morning , bit of early lump and bump due to a bit of storm action out to sea maybe , cleaned up into nice little rip bowl rights , southish end sc

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:23pm

Watching the lone desperado on the caba cam at the moment gave me a chuckle.
Top effort.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:41pm

Torrential rain and howling winds are hammering through the Tweed right now. Byron gusting 51kts.

SDW's picture
SDW's picture
SDW Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 7:51pm

That’s getting up there!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 8:40pm

Looks like it started increasing on dark at the pass.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 8:46pm

Yeah, looked like some solid sets on dark here.

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Saturday, 18 Jan 2025 at 10:50pm

Many spots north missed out ???

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:14am

Bye banks

pwarren's picture
pwarren's picture
pwarren Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:48am

Are there any developments re forecast for SC? Still tiny at a popular SC point(s) and there has only just been a slight jump in the Mooloolaba buoy.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:54am

Nothing specific, can only assume that the increase is delayed. Plenty of size on the Gold Coast right now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 7:54am

Cooking at the Pass right now, though the crowd is intense.

Lots of overlapping swell trains (given the mix of swells) but there are some occasional long lines (as per below) sweeping in from the S/SE.

hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 8:40am

Yeah the pass is the marquee spot today… But doesn’t everyone know it!

tip-top1's picture
tip-top1's picture
tip-top1 Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 10:37am

ding fixers will be busy after this ,
some good surfing going down amidst the carnage though

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 2:49pm

Left it too late. Not so fun through the high tide, and the devil wind up the face was ridiculous. Meh

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 8:11am

Ben, how much do you think this midday high tide will slow up the cooly points? Will it still be breaking through greeny and kirra?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 8:33am

It's a pretty decent high tide so will certainly have a noticeable effect. Ain't a huge swell (in this region) and there's plenty of south in it too. Capitalize on the lower tides if you can.

swellsam's picture
swellsam's picture
swellsam Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 11:24am

Thanks mate. Just went out for halfa at 9:00am. The tide really killed already, was hoping to get atleast an hour in before it got too high. Gonna wait for low now this arv.

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 10:39am

Usher Cup Day 3 Live.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 11:19am

It’s pretty much The Bay or nothing around here.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 11:42am

Yeh and it's a bit of a circus. Drop ins galore (but most ppl doing the right thing and pulling off when they see they have someone behind).
Got a handful of fun ones so can't complain, everyone is hungry.
Next few days going to be much better with the crowd spread and ppl back at work

scrotina's picture
scrotina's picture
scrotina Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 2:45pm

yawn. still nothing to ride in se qld. cant be bothered with the pass.

Island Bay's picture
Island Bay's picture
Island Bay Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 4:02pm

Hope you all got something decent. East coast groveling over here.

tiger's picture
tiger's picture
tiger Sunday, 19 Jan 2025 at 4:13pm

We're all still waiting IB, the next 2 days should be the money.

nick.minor's picture
nick.minor's picture
nick.minor Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 6:45am

4 foot on the sets (infrequent) middle of the sunshine coast

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 8:14am

Clean offshore morning here with 3-4ft (bigger sets) of swell and very few quality waves around.

When you look at the Pass cam and see all the shortboard ripping out there, that tells you the paucity of other quality options.

adsi's picture
adsi's picture
adsi Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 8:45am

Whats really shocking to me is that the pass is picking up decent lined up sets whereas broken is near garbage.
I had a look this morning and came home to start work. Not as much east in the swell as expected, was thinking tomorrow would be epic but now really not sure.

hamishbro's picture
hamishbro's picture
hamishbro Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 3:06pm

Yeah the pass has been mega impressive. Never fails to amaze me how reliable it can be. Pumping 3 foot bowls on dusk yesterday, upper section protected from the near gale southerly.

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 8:31am

Had some really fun waves over the weekend but kept the step up in the wrapper.
Front page story around here is that it’s a thing now to do step offs with 10 year olds in 3 foot surf right through the middle of a crowded line up. Everyone is stoked to see the young fella fall off while they’re waves are destroyed by JetSki wake. They were everywhere.
Minor story about a kid holding a surfboard who crashed his e-bike into an old lady walking a dog at 50km/h on the footpath (horrible scene). meanwhile while his friend surfaced under his mates dads jet ski in the impact zone.
Ok, the last story didn’t happen, I’m just getting old…
.

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 4:49pm

Where’s this??

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 12:07pm

HPC radius, all trying to copy Rawbo

cam.jw's picture
cam.jw's picture
cam.jw Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:01am

I certainly didnt see any 4ft waves in central sunny coast this morning. Surfed chest high, low tide closeouts before work. too much south in angle i guess.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:09am

Nice lines coming into Currumbin a short time ago.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:11am

Jeez the Tweed sand situation is all over the bloody shop at the moment. Fav spots have been bereft of sand for months and months. Open beaches still have that big outer storm bar. Not sure what we need to shake things about, but anything would be welcome.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:37am

Shark at the pass?
The web cam shows the water clear out completely.
2 guys out now

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:23pm

Lifeguards said it was a GW and only a few metres away, water sooo clear, buggered if I could see it!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:40am

SharkSmart
@NSWSharkSmart
·
31m

SLSNSW advise 2M White Shark observed at The Pass, BYRON BAY at 10:08 am, 20 Jan 2025. Water Evacuated.Beach Closed.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:13pm

I’ve been at the pass when hardly anyone got out for a shark warning.
I’m a bit surprised by the rapid clear out with nice waves.

rich74's picture
rich74's picture
rich74 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:20pm

shark alarm at caba about the same time, 3metre tiger apparently clubbies said, which has been around for days..unlike saturday the alarm cleared the water pretty good this time, leaving a few surfers a relatively empty line up

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 10:48am

Jet ski doing laps out there now.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 11:03am

Doesn't seem to be an issue for the kayak tourists!

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 11:06am

Sunny coast was a wet fart this morning and previous days.

andy-mac's picture
andy-mac's picture
andy-mac Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 11:35am

Hopefully something tomorrow...

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:12pm

Should be the official Sunshine coast marketing tagline.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:16pm

Shoulda been here ….. [on these 5 specific days over the last 5 years]

waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet's picture
waxyfeet Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:26pm

Out of pure masochism, I decided to document every surf I have this year on a calendar I got for an Xmas prezzie (dogs shitting in scenic places - seemed apt.), just to Analyze the data at the end of the year.
Rating of Shit, Fun, Good, Pumping, and which board was written :D

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:05pm

SLSNSW advise 3 Meter Unidentified Shark observed at Cabarita Beach, CABARITA BEACH at 10:51 am, 20 Jan 2025. Water Evacuated.Beach Closed.

Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67's picture
Surfalot67 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 12:56pm

Maybe the fresh run-off after the weekend has them excited?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 3:46pm

Ended up surfing solo down on an inside point/beachy/reef section that had some half decent rides.

Came in when a school of hard gut mullet came through the line-up and I didn't want to be solo when the landlord came through behind them.

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Monday, 20 Jan 2025 at 6:08pm

Been many reports of men in grey suits sightings from Ballina up to border this week... like 4 today alone...