Wednesday, 31 May 2023

No great change to the current pattern with a large high sitting very far up (right up on the QLD/NSW border!) allowing free passage for cold fronts into the lower Tasman and a generally synoptic W’ly flow to continue across the region. Mostly long period S swell trains will continue to the be the dominant swell source until next week when a much more S’ly located high brings an onshore flow to most of the Eastern Seaboard. A trough of low pressure looks to briefly form off the Mid North Coast early next week before moving away quickly.

Monday, 29 May 2023

Very wintry looking synoptic chart as we exit Autumn with a large high moving in over the continent with active cold fronts tied to low pressure systems tracking into the Tasman Sea. That pattern will extend through most of the week before a high cell drops into the Tasman Friday, with stronger frontal activity expected over the weekend and into next week

Friday, 26 May 2023

The expected Tasman low forming in the wake of todays front really falls apart, forming instead a raggedy low pressure trough which moves away quickly to the NE overnight and into Sat. That leaves us with a scrappy, bog standard S swell for Sat

Wednesday, 24 May 2023

As we come to the end of another (very!) active Autumn we’ve got a typical looking winter synoptic pattern unfolding with a dominant high drifting over NSW bringing settled conditions with a very active Southern Ocean storm track spawning a strong cold front which will impact the state on Fri. The front and an upper low are expected to form a surface low Fri off the Central NSW Coast. Compared to Mon’s notes this low is now expected to be weaker and much faster moving bringing a smaller, faster up and down in S swell. 

Monday, 22 May 2023

A winter calibre front and low has now transited the Tasman, after generating a solid S swell for the Eastern Seaboard. Large high pressure (1032 hPa)is moving across inland NSW bringing settled conditions and  light winds to the region, for the next few days.

Friday, 19 May 2023

We’re expecting plenty of fun waves for the weekend, Sat especially with our Tasman low stalling and deepening over the last 24-36hrs, slightly further away from NZ than modelled. That’s allowed E’ly quarter low end gales to develop in our swell window, even if aimed more directly further South.

Wednesday, 17 May 2023

A small low formed off a coastal trough close to the QLD/NSW border yesterday and is now drifting close to Lord Howe Island, continuing to move SE-E/SE towards New Zealand. A tight pressure gradient between the low and a dual-centred high moving through the Bight is creating low end gales and strong winds on the SW flank of the low and generating S’ly swells up the Eastern seaboard, favouring NSW for most size.

Monday, 15 May 2023

A good coverage of strong breezes in the Coral Sea has built a handy tradewind swell, biggest in SEQLD and favouring the Points.

Friday, 12 May 2023

Leftover S/SE-SE swell from the last stages of the fetch as it lingered in the Eastern Tasman abutting New Zealand should hold some 3ft sets through most of the day, albeit slow and inconsistent. Mixed in will be an inconsistent signal of E swell, not offering more than the occasional 2-3ft set.

Wednesday, 10 May 2023

The strong reinforcing cold front is now almost across the Tasman with a large (1031hPa) high moving across from the Bight and already setting up a ridge along the QLD Coast. High pressure moves into the Tasman as we end the week with a dominant role into next week.