Billabong Pro Pipeline Forecast

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Form Guide

Always the way, eh?

The North Pacific has been overactive the past month with endless pulses of large swell, notably lighting up the Pipeline arena but also every other North Shore reef that likes it DOH from the NW. Yet it was never going to last, especially in a La Niña summer. These are climatically the least active for the North Pacific and while there has been periods of large swell, it's consisted of mid-period energy with the storms being a touch weaker than normal. It's those stronger storms and longer-period swells that push the size into the XL range and beyond.

We've all enjoyed seeing local specialists scoring four epic days of heavy Pipeline for the Da Hui Backdoor Shootout, but with the Pipe Masters event window kicking off this Saturday, it looks like the change in programming is not going to work favourably for the WSL this year.

The North Pacific is set to see a blocking high setup north and north-east of the Hawaiian Islands over the coming fortnight, preventing storms spawning off Japan from pushing west with any real vigour.

This will see the storm track focussing north towards the Aleutian Islands instead of south towards Hawaii, resulting in moderate to possibly large (if we're lucky) pulses of swell energy throughout the event window.

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly forecast chart for 31st Jan to 7th Feb. Note the blocking high north of Hawaii, preventing storms from tracking south-east towards the islands. Source: ECMWF

The one positive to glean from this particular setup is that the North-west Pacific won't fall quiet, so there should be plenty of contestable days of surf, just nothing compared to what we say during the Backdoor Shootout. It's also worth keeping in mind that this year is the first time that both Men and Women will compete at Pipe, meaning the WSL will need six or seven days to run the contests.

An initial NW groundswell is expected on the 29th - the first day of the waiting period - generated by a strong but north-east tracking low deepening east-northeast of Japan. A brief fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds will be generated through Hawaii's swell window as it retreats north. This isn't ideal but should provide good 6ft surf through Saturday, easing in consistency and size from 4-6ft on Sunday morning.

Winds look favourable and E/SE tending variable on Saturday and then S/SE tending variable on Sunday as a trough moves in from the west. It's very likely they'll have two days in the bag by the end of the weekend.

There'll then be a run of lay days next week as weaker fronts move in from the west, generating weak, small swells with no size. The best of these is due Wednesday but to 3-4ft max across Pipeline.

Longer term, there's the possiblity of a healthier storm firing up mid-late next week, providing a good groundswell for later in the waiting period, but the models diverge on its strength and construction. Either way there'll be some form of swell inbound and at least moderate in size.

Keep an eye on the running commentary below for updates.

Click for Swellnet's North Shore forecast and WAMs

Comments

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 2:29pm

There'll be a few Pipe first timers thanking Huey for it to be going quiet.

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 9:45pm

Can group Filipe in with them too!

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:18pm

2022 should be his year at last.
Mediocre Pipe and probably no Medina to contend with this year.

B.B.Blitz's picture
B.B.Blitz's picture
B.B.Blitz Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:48pm

Odds of $26 to win pipe on sportsbet.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:41pm

I don't want to look. Please tell us... odds on Jordy?

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:20pm

Not being chauvanistic,but i think most of the women won't complain with that forecast.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 3:11pm

Ahhh bummer!!! I read the first line of this and already knew it could only be bad news!!!

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 3:19pm

yeah real shame hey. Hopefully somewhere deep into the waiting period there'll be some juice.
Pipe seems to be such a lottery when its small, inconsistent and shifty. People get through heats with 5's in total.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 3:33pm

Fingers definitely crossed for that second week Solitude!!

Hazrus's picture
Hazrus's picture
Hazrus Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 4:46pm

The script seems set already, at least for the first week:
Men only for first 1.5 days
Women for the 3-4' rippable days. Backdoor only for the best scores. Steph and Carissa to shine.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:29pm

Carissa yes but not sure about Steph.
Pipe isn't a sand bottom right hand pointbreak and she seems like she's past the point of trying to improve her surfing in waves that aren't traditionally her forte these days.
If it ends up being 4 foot mushy backdoor (mushy by backdoor standards that is) she'll be a good chance,but otherwise i'd rate Tyler Wright over her,and probably about half the other girls too.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:24pm

Agreed. Would love to see Steph have a decent crack at Pipe. Don't think i've ever seen any footage or pics of her going left at Pipe. Surely the challenge must be appealing? Probably only b Backdoor for comp anyway and small Pipe clampers.

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:24pm

I think now there's a CT event at Sunset too i'd rate her much higher there.
Anywhere on her forehand with some open face is right up her alley,like the event in Maui was.
Somewhere slabbier and basically just a barrel like backdoor i can't recall seeing footage of her in.
But to be honest i don't recall seeing most of the women in those kind of waves.

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:34am

Are you kidding me!?!

jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover's picture
jetson.rover Monday, 31 Jan 2022 at 4:35pm

Nah i wasn't,but we now won't know,as some kind of coincidental covid issue,which didn't affect any other competitors,both male and female,has her out of the comp.

ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko's picture
ojackojacko Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:56am

steph doing more than fine at backdoor. few grabs of her in recent vids on youtube

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 4:53pm

Ivan Florence has a wildcard into the event. Lookout!

Roystein's picture
Roystein's picture
Roystein Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 5:52pm

Gee the wozzle do well at ruining things

nextswell's picture
nextswell's picture
nextswell Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 7:10pm

Was hoping for a bumper forecast and JJF to blow them to pieces. Now…Toledo licking his lips.

hackonayak's picture
hackonayak's picture
hackonayak Tuesday, 22 Mar 2022 at 8:35am

Yeah we can look forward to Toledo doing a plethora of "Boring as batshit rotations"...*sigh

sean killen's picture
sean killen's picture
sean killen Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 8:18pm

A cover up and an air at the end .. spells boring contest .. hopefully we see some juicy pipe swell alas the recent swells sort of the nervous v committed

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Tuesday, 25 Jan 2022 at 9:54pm

Yeah that’s disappointing. If you’re on tour you should be able to surf maxing Pipe at its best. (And waves like it)
Bummer to see it run in small stuff

Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython's picture
Tim Bonython Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:18am

Its the opposite here in the Atlantic. Nazare has been super quiet over the last 2/3 weeks although perfect weather..

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 8:24am

Huey, a cruel and vengeful God has decided to teach Dirk and his team of butt kissing arse lickers a lesson in who's the real boss of the waves, will skunk the entire tour

kaybeegee's picture
kaybeegee's picture
kaybeegee Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:21pm

Clearly pipe is no showing cause it's not double vaxxed and doesn't want to reveal its status due to the media oppression. Good on you Banzai - stand up for your rights (and left's).

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:30pm

Looks like the weekend's swell will now be the best of the period.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:37pm

That second swell later in the period looks ugly....ENE and short period. Will that turn Backdoor into Kirra??

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:39pm

Agh, ignore that stuff, just background energy and doesn't really get in unless large.

There is mid-period NW swell to surf but nothing substantial.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:41pm

Bugger. Worst stretch of surf for the winter. :(

Remigogo's picture
Remigogo's picture
Remigogo Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 11:46pm

Craig, are your thoughts that this helps our current crop of Aussies?

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 4:27pm

And in other news there's a qs comp in the US underway that's sponsored by a medical centre?
"The SLO CAL Open QS1000 presented by French Hospital Medical Centre" at Pismo Beach.

Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo's picture
Where-is-albo Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:53pm

Any updates Craig? The models are showing a solid swell hitting on the second weekend of the waiting period.

Some insider info might save me from embarrassment in the Fantasy league.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 7:06pm

There's been no real change until this evening's 00z updates. Everything has been looking fairly mediocre but now the models have a bit more juice later in the period which you've mentioned.

One to keep an eye on but promising.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 11:00am

Shit check this out looks like a completely different spot to the last few weeks. One day of small waves and the reef is covered with sand already

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 11:50am

Classic watching two kooks on Mal's having a blue on the live cam. So will it be bigger then today tomorrow?

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 11:55am

Haha classic. Had to go back and find it. Even when knee high and onshore it's still a shitfight
I think the forecast is still for 6ft + tomorrow

dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope's picture
dawnperiscope Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 12:14pm

2m at 16seconds on the models, hoping that means plenty on plus side of 6ft. Looking fwd to it! What time Hawaiian do they kick off, 8am?

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 1:23pm

"First call: 7:30 am HST"

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 1:27pm

Which would be 4:30 / 5:30 tomorrow morning on the east coast?

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 1:43pm

330/430am - we are 20/21 hours ahead of HST

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Saturday, 29 Jan 2022 at 4:09pm

Whoa! How likely is next Saturdays prediction to hold? 3m @14seconds from the NW!!?? E winds.That was unexpected!!

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 5:18am

Geez it’d be good to have the Swellnet live comment stream back. Even without the broadcast. Good to watch it on the big screen and talk dung on here throughout.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 5:36am

Looks nice out there. Ross reckons 3rd reef by this arvo?? And Lawler in heat 2 did someone else withdraw?
Owen got up in heat 1

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 5:49am

Liam O BRIEN injured in the pre comp warm up this morning.

gragagan's picture
gragagan's picture
gragagan Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 6:06am

Spewin

Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding's picture
Ben Harding Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 6:19am

Damn he was in my fantasy! Rewatched this last night:

Hope it's not too bad was really looking forward to watching get after it

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 5:53am

WSL has blocked all embed feeds to Swellnet. So, looks like we can't run the live event pages this year.

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 6:00am

Can’t you still do the comments?

Still mind blowing the idea that WSL would actively limit the opportunities to watch their product.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 6:08am

Yeah, the decision is odd - the WSL don't lose any branding opportunities at all (compared to viewing on YouTube or Facebook), Swellnet merely provides a platform for a community of core surfers to watch the event in a more favourable environment. Having "millions of viewers" (ahem) commenting on the YT and FB pages is completely meaningless - they're people you don't know, and the comments fly past at a rate of knots, so anything written is off the screen within a matter of seconds.

However, the UX on Swellnet without the live stream is pretty poor - the sidebar commentary is the only thing working.

Perhaps we should take a break to see how everyone feels about it? I dunno.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 6:24am
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 30 Jan 2022 at 10:16am

The forecast is looking better for the rest of the period, but likely not as big as the models are showing, probably a foot or two under but it's active and we should be looking at great 8ft Pipe. Will have an update through the week.