COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig's picture
Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:29am

shoredump, unregulated ivermectin use is what is occurring, so what we want is irrelevant. And you seem to have forgotten the most relevant statistic....

Vaccination reduces hospitalisation by 96%.

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:41am
blindboy wrote:

The use of the pulse oximeter may be pointless but it is not harmful. The unregulated use of ivermectin does cause harm. It can have serious side effects, it delays the entry of those using it into the medical system, which has resulted in numerous deaths and it misleads people to believe that as covid can be easily treated they do not need to worry about catching it.

This is a great point BB.

I just enjoyed the insight into the the monitoring, escalation of treatments etc regarding the O2 levels end end organ hypoxia etc.

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tylerdurden Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:45am

Blindboy, with respect, this comment is a bit troubling:

"The use of the pulse oximeter may be pointless but it is not harmful. The unregulated use of ivermectin does cause harm. It can have serious side effects, it delays the entry of those using it into the medical system, which has resulted in numerous deaths and it misleads people to believe that as covid can be easily treated they do not need to worry about catching it."

I'll get to the pulse oximeter thing in a minute but Ivermectin, even in very large doses has minuscule side effects (percentage wise) and very occasional idiosyncratic side effects independent of dose, which all drugs have.
And given your into citations, why don't you put up a link which quantifies both the delay to presentation to hospital and worse outcome in general of Ivermectin users? And also a link showing a statistical link between Ivermectin users and refusal to get vaccinated?

Re the pulse oximeter, yes it can potentially cause harm from a number of reasons.
Have a read of this 3 part series:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2014898/

Never heard of this journal but put in a 5 second searched found it, gives you all you need to know:
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/nrp/2011/260482/

One of the postulated reasons why pulse oximetry does not have a clear benefit on outcomes is because clinicians treat moderate hypoxia (as seen on the pulse oximeter) with too much oxygen, causing the problems outlined in the article. Particularly a problem for longer term administration of oxygen, that's why you need an arterial line.
What you should be doing is assessing end organ oxygen delivery, not fixing the number you see on the pulse oximeter. So therefore, sorry to say it but the pulse oximeter is not without harm.
Additionally, pressure areas and burns have been reported with them as have software malfunctions which have showed higher numbers than reality.

I've got home schooling, got to go.

But Craig, both Sanguine and I will use the pulse oximeter on you, who knows I might actually be a nicer guy in real life than what you think?
I treat the Cochrane review evidence on pulse oximeters exactly the same way I do the Cochrane review evidence on Ivermectin: consider it just one part of my decision making in forming my opinions....otherwise I would have stopped using the pulse oximeter 20 years ago

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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:51am

While mass media article after article attacks ivermectin as horse medication of anti-vaxxers, in the meantime, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have more formally embraced the drug, including in the government-funded ACTIV-6 clinical trial. Many naysayers in the media declare that the drug is dangerous or not fit for human consumption, yet nearly 4 billion doses of the drug have been donated via the Mectizan program alone—one that has eradicated river blindness. Of the 64 studies completed involving ivermectin, a couple dozen randomized controlled trials evidence some real promise.

Now the NIH offers the world even more evidence as to the seriousness of this potential treatment. Under a table titled “Table 2e Characteristics of Antiviral Agents that Are Approved or Under Evaluation for the Treatment of COVID-19,” the NIH includes Remdesivir, Ivermectin, and Nitazoxanide.

The COVID-OUT trial is another major ivermectin study ongoing led by the University of Minnesota. Funded with over $100 million by the National Institutes of Health, ACTIV-6 is led by Duke University’s Clinical Research Institute. https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/tables/table-2e/ @blindboy , ivermectin should only be given under guidance by your GP who knows your medical history. Ivermectin interacts well with most drugs but there are some like warfarin that don’t and can be harmful . Doctor patient relationship is so important in any treatment . At the moment the government is stepping in and making those decisions .

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:16am

Thanks TD, I'm sure you are!

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shoredump Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:31am

96% is excellent

but I think we can do better

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san Guine Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:33am

"Re the pulse oximeter, yes it can potentially cause harm from a number of reasons.
Have a read of this 3 part series:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2014898/

Never heard of this journal but put in a 5 second searched found it, gives you all you need to know:
https://www.hindawi.com/journals/nrp/2011/260482/"

TD,
Your first cited paper is from 1991.

Here is one from 2021 from the BMJ:

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n677

"Many patients hospitalised with acute covid-19 have severe hypoxia.478
"Hypoxia, silent hypoxia, and the need for supplementary oxygen are all independent predictors of worse outcomes in covid-19.8910111213141516 Novel prognostic tools such as the 4C score have shown the importance of identifying hypoxia early,917 and there are physiological reasons for managing the complication promptly and actively.118

For all these reasons, UK guidelines recommend that assessment and monitoring of breathless, unwell, or high risk patients with suspected covid-19 should include pulse oximetry.1920 Guidance published in January 2021 by the World Health Organization includes a provisional recommendation for “use of pulse oximetry monitoring at home as part of a package of care, including patient and provider education and appropriate follow-up.21"

Pulse oximetry undoubtedly has limitations but is a front line, simple, effective tool it gives clinicians early warning sign into the deteriorating patient.

And yes, of course, oxygen toxicity is a real thing.

Let's also not forget all our CO2 retaining patients (COPD,PF and ILD), whose respiratory drive is facilitated by decreasing PaO2 not increasing CO2 (which is the opposite to the patient with no underlying lung pathology). Apart from an ABG how can we simply and effectively measure this cohorts' oxygenation...pulse oximetry.

And don't get me started on the efficacy of VBG's , useful for Hb, electrolytes and BSL, but should not be driving clinical decisions in respiratory compromised patients

tylerdurden's picture
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tylerdurden Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:53am

Ok Sanguine (and Blindboy) let’s move on from the pulse oximeter. I raised it to highlight a point of the difficulty of interpreting evidence.
On the one hand there are those that say “there is no evidence Ivermectin works” and cite meta-analyses, peer reviewed articles and the Cochrane review.
However, all of those show very clearly that the pulse oximeter has no benefit on outcomes.
Yet the pulse oximeter continues to be used billions of times a day in anaesthetics, surgery and ICU around the world.
Everything has got pro’s and con’s, gotta keep an open mind about everything.
Maybe just maybe the pulse oximeter is not as useful as you think and maybe just maybe Ivermectin actually works!

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 10:06am

Some humour .

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 10:20am

".....maybe just maybe Ivermectin actually works!

So given the extreme difficulty of obtaining absolutely definitive data on the issue, we should ignore the best quality evidence we have? Ha ha. That's beyond ridiculous and out there into irresponsible. I had a look for some substantive evidence to back up my claims and discovered two things. The amount of bullshit and poor quality analysis of this issue is endless and make it difficult to find genuine research or even authoritative reporting. Second there are a shit load of sites selling on line ivermectin. I suggested before that supafreak might have some interest in that market. You can draw your own conclusion from the fact that he didn't answer. No offence tyler, but what about you?

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 11:52am

Now there’s a conspiracy, Tyler Durdan and Supafreak have a warehouse full of ivermectin and stand to make millions. What a scoop for swellnet , blindboy is on it . Ok I will fess up blindboy, you got me .

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 11:56am

Well what is your real motivation? You've been asked a few times now but never answer. Just a deluded freedom loving guy doing his bit for the betterment of mankind?

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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:01pm

Yes you got me again , your very good.

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:07pm

So you admit you are deluded? I admire your honesty.

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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:18pm
blindboy wrote:

So you admit you are deluded? I admire your honesty.

Thank you

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:24pm

So no more ivermectin nonsense?

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tylerdurden Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:28pm

Oh dear Blindboy. No we should not ignore the best quality evidence we have but millions of anaesthetists and Intensivists are doing just that on a daily basis when they use the pulse oximeter are they not?
Hopefully by that example you can see that evidence is complex.
I'm not 100% sure if Ivermectin works against Covid. This website https://ivmmeta.com gives it a 1 in 200billion likelihood of having no effect. Maybe that's over stating it but who knows?
Interpret the evidence any way you want but keep an open mind, it way just work

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:29pm

“So no more ivermectin nonsense?”

Gawd…..I think you’ve forgotten you’re not a school teacher anymore BB.

How’s the language? I’d like to be there when he speaks to an adult like that in real life.

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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:30pm

Do you want some more nonsense ? ok but you may have to wait a bit . https://www.monash.edu/discovery-institute/news-and-events/news/2021-art...

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:40pm

Glad to wait Supa. There are a lot of trials planned so let's continue the discussion when there is some new data. We have pretty much covered all the existing stuff.

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Blowin Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:45pm

Keep posting whatever and whenever you like, Superfreak. BB is just trying to silence you anyway he can. His opinions are not required when you have something you’d like to add.

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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 12:56pm

Maybe you can have a closer look at the link Tyler has put up in particular the part in brackets at top of page ( BBC , GMK response , Elgazzar ) I understand you have trouble finding links but a simple click on this part in brackets above will lead you there . There is alot of information on Tyler’s link and should give you something to read if your open to it .

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 1:28pm

tyler it is hard to believe you are serious when you provide a link with a 1% credibility rating.

https://www.scamdoc.com/view/535335

I will get back to it Supafreak

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shortenism Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 1:40pm

'Freedom Day' for NSW... hahaha far out... Note the language. But what freedoms really. I mean its a long way from the 'freedom' as we once knew it. Anyone else notice you are now effectively living in the communist china. All over a common cold... Mind blowing they pulled this off so easily.

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truebluebasher Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 1:42pm

Sharing vital Data opens Vic up to obvious truths...but we're all better off knowing than not!
tbb promised to equally salute heat of the moment data...Solid & gutsy Health advice Vic!
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-7-october-2021
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-update-victoria-23-september-2021

Vic Cases % 28th Sept- 5th Oct > (Vic Hospitals nearest companion data *23rd Sept - 5th Oct)
Unvaxed Cases 78% > Hospitalized *81% > 66%
1 dose- Cases 15% > Hospitalized *15% > 27%
Full Vax - Cases 7% > Hospitalized *3% > 7%

Crew can judge who's on a spreading spree & who's racing to Hospital
Just keep in mind, that shift in No Vax < > Vax beds is off the charts! (Essentially #1 Newsworthy!)
Health Directive will likely mandate 30% freedom be stripped from Vaxerz and rewarded to unvaxed.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 1:53pm

tbb. your links do not conatin the data you quote. As my underestanding is that NSW is the only state that is publishing this data you need to provide a link to an authoritative source.

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 1:58pm

This is the NSW data from a comparable stage in that outbreak
Screen-Shot-2021-10-11-at-1-55-59-pm
goodwill visalia

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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 3:01pm

"I’d like to be there when he speaks to an adult like that in real life"

Over the years with all the issues around climate change and so on I have said that sort of thing to many adults. There's not much sense beating around the bush when people are completely wrong and, given that I have had more opportunity than many to study that type of issue, I consider it a community service to be quite explicit. So far no-one has ever done much more than look a bit surprised, but I suppose one day I might strike someone on the wrong end of a six pack who wants to take a swing. Happy to take my chances in that regard.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 3:28pm

So you’re basically Sheldon Cooper if Sheldon Cooper was on the wrong side of the truth on most issues?

How do people react when you contemptuously correct them after they contradict some of your beliefs such as when you claimed that a 50 million strong population wouldn’t have a detrimental affect on the Australian environment?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 3:32pm

BB - not related to this thread but it relates to your views .

You said I was wrong when I said the headline about the tax havens would last weeks and probably days .

I saw them for 2 days but I thought I would check with you . How many days did you see them on the news ?

Hutchy 19's picture
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Hutchy 19 Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 3:38pm

.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 3:54pm

Who's Sheldon Cooper?

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 4:05pm

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 4:38pm

So it's some sort of American sitcom? Never really got into them, their cartoons are funny though.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:21pm

The good old BBC part of the TNI debunks ivermectin , very interesting video by Dr John Campbell , particularly the last minute .

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bluediamond Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 8:43pm

Great vid Supafreak. Amazing. "The BBC is quoting unpublished evidence".
Well waddya know. Trust your media. Trust your gubberment. All will be fine.

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:00pm

Give us a break! Supafreak you are a mine of misinformation. I could go through the video point by point but having done that for all you other sources it is getting a bit tedious. Let's just go with one example of the "thinking" here.

Old mate complains about the BBC referring to studies that have been withdrawn when the point of the article is to explain how ivermectin has been promoted as a treatment for Covid. Note the use of the past tense. The BBC is addressing past influences...which clearly include the withdrawn study. I'd put money on old mate never having been in a properly organised debate in his life, with logic like that he would have reduced the oppositon to hysterical laughter. Fuck me, it sort of surprises me that this kind of material exists. It surprises me even more that so many lack the basic skills to see it for what it is.....pure shit.

Supafreak's picture
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Supafreak Monday, 11 Oct 2021 at 9:12pm

Stop talking nonsense blindboy

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 6:44am

Ha ha!

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:15am

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:31am

Hilarious stuff Roadkill, but a lot of workers and small businesses have really suffered during the lockdown so there is some gravel amongst the snow.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:35am
Roadkill wrote:

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

You moved to Australia because it’s better than NZ. You were not invited here. Australians have a drinking culture. You don’t like it…..back to Hobbit land cuz. People are done living your fear fantasy. They want to be free not hiding like soft cock chicken shits.

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san Guine Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:39am

"Australians have a drinking culture"

I'm not sure that is something to be proud of

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Roadkill Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:46am

Triggeredsnowflakeeveryoneheknowshasaterriblediseaseblowin. Typical, the biggest bogan in here has to comment on what he has nfi about. It doesn't surprise me he has no clue about the movement of Australians moving to NZ with their kids for work…movement is both ways Snowflakeblowin…there is a pretty good AUS ex pat community in NZ.

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:48am

But hey…don’t let that stop your hate and anger.

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Roadkill Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 8:58am
Roadkill wrote:

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

30+ years ago I lived in Rose Bay and there were 2 sisters that were survivors from Nazi Germany who lived above us. Both had numbers tattooed on their wrists. Really nice people with a really sad history of family members murdered and gassed to death. They would come down and have a sunday BBQ with us a couple of times a year…once they opened up and told us their story. I always remember that story and afternoon with them when I hear others whinge and moan about how tough life in lockdown is.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:41am
san Guine wrote:

"Australians have a drinking culture"

I'm not sure that is something to be proud of

It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?

It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:50am
Roadkill wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

30+ years ago I lived in Rose Bay and there were 2 sisters that were survivors from Nazi Germany who lived above us. Both had numbers tattooed on their wrists. Really nice people with a really sad history of family members murdered and gassed to death. They would come down and have a sunday BBQ with us a couple of times a year…once they opened up and told us their story. I always remember that story and afternoon with them when I hear others whinge and moan about how tough life in lockdown is.

And how do you think the persecution against those women began genius?

BTW….you want to talk about triggered snowflakes?

A bunch of double vaccinated crew who’ve been in lockdowns for months celebrate their release with a few beers in a pub- still socially distancing- and some soft cock chicken shit who lives 2000kms away has a whinge because he thinks he’ll catch the virus despite him being double vaccinated and the survival rate being 99.58%.

How much of a soft cock chicken shit can you be bloke!?

blindboy's picture
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blindboy Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:52am

To get back on topic. The evidence is in common sense, and a bit of incentivisation, have won the day Autralia wide. We are heading to 90% vaccination rate amongst adults and surveys shows only around 9% of the population are convinced anti-vaxxers, and yes we wish them luck with that choice. They will almost certainly need it. Ivermectin use is below any possible statistical measurement so time to let it all go I would think. No-one left to persuade. We know most of the posters questioning the need for the vaccine are already vaccinated but is there anyone here who isn't? Maybe not. Similarly with ivermectin. Has anyone actually used it or stuck some in the medicine cabinet just in case or has it all just been ideologically driven hypocrisy?

Roadkill's picture
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Roadkill Tuesday, 12 Oct 2021 at 9:53am
Blowin wrote:
Roadkill wrote:
Roadkill wrote:

Bogan Australis is doing us all proud..12am and NSW dicks have to rush to the pubs, get haircuts and go stupid. It’s been such a hard lockdown sacrifice for the snowflakes…lead by Perrottet who had to get photos at the pub chugging down beer. Pretty funny stuff.

30+ years ago I lived in Rose Bay and there were 2 sisters that were survivors from Nazi Germany who lived above us. Both had numbers tattooed on their wrists. Really nice people with a really sad history of family members murdered and gassed to death. They would come down and have a sunday BBQ with us a couple of times a year…once they opened up and told us their story. I always remember that story and afternoon with them when I hear others whinge and moan about how tough life in lockdown is.

And how do you think the persecution against those women began genius?

You really are a fucking low class idiot…you are comparing covid lockdowns to nazi Germany.
I didn’t think you could take your argument lower than previously, but you have. Congrats.