COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
"Just so you guys are aware, when talking to most Western Australian, were pretty happy for the state border to remain closed."
can't blame em...
a bit provincial in thinking... but having lved in area with no virus at all, and an area thick with virus... it's a nice feeling havng not to think about it at all, ...while the rest of the world literally goes crazy around you...
but ya can't hide forever... and plenty of crew are also itching to leave the sand mine...
san Guine wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:"Australians have a drinking culture"
I'm not sure that is something to be proud of
It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?
It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.
Is drinking culture? I guess it is when you compare it to cannibalism and genital mutilation. That would be a false equivalence.
But as a byproduct of 'your' perceived culture we get an ED full of trauma every Friday and Saturday nights, domestic violence, chronic liver disease leading to portal hypertension and ascites etc.
Would you rather we follow New Guinea and get women burnt alive cause they’re witches? Follow the Middle East and fill the hospitals with victims of suicide bombers who blow people up because they follow a different verdict of the same historic fiction about “God”? Follow the Japanese into working ourselves to death?
"The stats don't look so good when they are based on real data."
ppfffffffff, ....lets not get into that again...
"Indonesia has administered 150 million doses of vaccine which would be half the population if they were single doses."
talk it up big boy...
big boy, big pharma propagandaist...
18 % fully vaxxed at last count
(and jakarta fat cats paying for additional booster shots)
"Additionally both the case numbers and deaths are both considered unreliable.
So are you vaccinated? Have you used or stockpiled ivermectin?"
yes I am vaccinated
and I tried to stockpile ivermectin, but hesitated and missed out...
"More Unreliable Disinformation!"
where?
you?
and your perpetually triggered propaganda machine...
What about India sypkan? Care to explain those numbers? If your original post wasn't deliberate misinformation it was incredibly naive. Indonesia has numerous complicating factors not least that it is a vast archipelago. I will dig a bit deeper
Did my post about Blindboy’s tendencies towards pushing bullshit as fact get removed?
Blindboy is not a medical expert. His opinions are not fact.
Covid in Australia in 2021 has a survival rate of 99.58%. That is fact.
As they were ad hominen attacks, yes.
sypkan the data for Jakarta listed here shows excess deaths about 9 times the recorded covid deaths. So your original data for Indonesia is just as misleading as the Indian data. So yep MUD.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
stunet wrote:As they were ad hominen attacks, yes.
Blindboy has posted years of bullshit posed as fact. He has no hesitation in claiming others are lying despite them telling the truth. Blindboy is the perfect example of the modern Fake Left fascist who deplatforms, cancels and censors opinions and FACTS which contradict his personal beliefs and ideologies, no matter how deluded they are. He threatened to sue me for things I said on Swellnet despite him dispensing insults like confetti to other posters. He is a disgrace.
Covid in Australia in 2021 has a survival rate of 99.58%.
Fact.
Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:"Australians have a drinking culture"
I'm not sure that is something to be proud of
It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?
It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.
Is drinking culture? I guess it is when you compare it to cannibalism and genital mutilation. That would be a false equivalence.
But as a byproduct of 'your' perceived culture we get an ED full of trauma every Friday and Saturday nights, domestic violence, chronic liver disease leading to portal hypertension and ascites etc.
Would you rather we follow New Guinea and get women burnt alive cause they’re witches? Follow the Middle East and fill the hospitals with victims of suicide bombers who blow people up because they follow a different verdict of the same historic fiction about “God”? Follow the Japanese into working ourselves to death?
Are you halfway through the 2nd 6 pack of the day?
Seems a few people are upset with the article’s that the BBC have been pushing out . Interesting to see where this goes, so far Rolling stone and the guardian had to make retractions on false claims in some of their “ stories “ 
@ blindboy, your a confessed researcher maybe you can show everyone the paper that debunks the 26 ivermectin studies found to be fraudulent .
Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:"Australians have a drinking culture"
I'm not sure that is something to be proud of
No. I’m caring for an old bloke who can no longer look after himself. I literally saved his life a few days ago. What are you doing besides acting like a snide smart arse?
You still scared bloke? 2000kms from some double vaccinated, socially distanced people celebrating end of lock down and you’re still whining about how vulnerable you are…..double vaccinated chicken shit soft cock is what you are.
How many millions of legendary hero Kiwis are there and we ended up with your chicken shit self.
It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?
It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.
Is drinking culture? I guess it is when you compare it to cannibalism and genital mutilation. That would be a false equivalence.
But as a byproduct of 'your' perceived culture we get an ED full of trauma every Friday and Saturday nights, domestic violence, chronic liver disease leading to portal hypertension and ascites etc.
Would you rather we follow New Guinea and get women burnt alive cause they’re witches? Follow the Middle East and fill the hospitals with victims of suicide bombers who blow people up because they follow a different verdict of the same historic fiction about “God”? Follow the Japanese into working ourselves to death?
Are you halfway through the 2nd 6 pack of the day?
Roadkill wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:"Australians have a drinking culture"
I'm not sure that is something to be proud of
No. I’m caring for an old bloke who can no longer look after himself. I literally saved his life a few days ago. What are you doing besides acting like a snide smart arse?
You still scared bloke? 2000kms from some double vaccinated, socially distanced people celebrating end of lock down and you’re still whining about how vulnerable you are…..double vaccinated chicken shit soft cock is what you are.
How many millions of legendary hero Kiwis are there and we ended up with your chicken shit self.
It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?
It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.
Is drinking culture? I guess it is when you compare it to cannibalism and genital mutilation. That would be a false equivalence.
But as a byproduct of 'your' perceived culture we get an ED full of trauma every Friday and Saturday nights, domestic violence, chronic liver disease leading to portal hypertension and ascites etc.
Would you rather we follow New Guinea and get women burnt alive cause they’re witches? Follow the Middle East and fill the hospitals with victims of suicide bombers who blow people up because they follow a different verdict of the same historic fiction about “God”? Follow the Japanese into working ourselves to death?
Are you halfway through the 2nd 6 pack of the day?
Cut off?
Nice.
Back to swapping spit then chickenshits
Most are dealt with in the Cochrane review. I posted the link before. If you have any that are not addressed here please post a link. So Supafreak are you vaccinated? Have you used or stockpiled ivermectin?
I’m not drinking. I’m looking after an old bloke who can’t look after himself. I literally saved his life not so long ago. You should try not being a cock….you might like it!
blindboy wrote:Most are dealt with in the Cochrane review. I posted the link before. If you have any that are not addressed here please post a link. So Supafreak are you vaccinated? Have you used or stockpiled ivermectin?
Ok then show everyone , I’ve been fully vaccinated since August with AZ and have previously posted this , I don’t unfortunately have any ivermectin , didnt realise the TGA were going to be my doctor from now on . Bye bye doctor patient relationship. I’m not going to believe anything from you blindboy over doctors that actually treat patients. Sorry but your opinion doesn’t really mean much to me . Plenty off professional doctors scientists and researchers opinion do mean something. You don’t fall into this category .
Mate I dealt with every claim you made and looked at and addressed every reference you supplied, then you wanted to start all over again. Now you want me to do your searches for you. Sorry but that's not how it works.
blindboy wrote:Mate I dealt with every claim you made and looked at and addressed every reference you supplied, then you wanted to start all over again. Now you want me to do your searches for you. Sorry but that's not how it works.
You haven’t dealt with anything , you are full of it . If you believe dealing with it is by expressing your opinion ? Well sorry but I don’t put any value in your opinion .
Blowin wrote:I’m not drinking. I’m looking after an old bloke who can’t look after himself. I literally saved his life not so long ago. You should try not being a cock….you might like it!
I'm not the one having posts removed due to attacking someone.
Look in the mirror blowin..take direction from Stu when given.
You should take a day off arguing - relax a bit.
Blowin wrote:I’m not drinking. I’m looking after an old bloke who can’t look after himself. I literally saved his life not so long ago. You should try not being a cock….you might like it!
I'm not the one having posts removed due to attacking someone.
Look in the mirror blowin..take direction from Stu when given.
You should take a day off arguing - relax a bit.
supafreak, I either backed my view up with a link to an authoritative source or a clear explanation of the problem. If that's not enough then sorry I can't help you any further.
yeh it's a lot of death... but the counting methods are... err... lacking... which ever way you want to spin them...
but taking the biggest number, to indulge the fear... don't forget that's from 1 380 000 000 people...
the point is... in india and indonesia, with massive high density populations, woefully substandard health systems, unhealty diets and populations, and sparse vaccination numbers to say the least... the pandemic seems to have passed... somewhat organically... it's over, and life is almost back to normal, ...for people that lead 'normal' lives...
whilst in the west... in a our paranoid micro-managed technogically advanced soup of self indulgance and righteousness... we undertook an unprecedented cautionary tactic, shut down lives and economies, divided society, imposed a 'not mandatory' vaccine in a rather mandatory manner..., locked people in and out of their home, ...and two years on... here we are only just looking to 'live with the virus'... still plagued by fear, ridiculous restrictions, and some rather nasty division...
I think we over reacted
like, totally...
and my big fear is, the next 'actual' death plague virus probably isn't far away...
and it probably actually will be the big one next time...
good luck with publc compliance...
No mate, total crap. So what did caused those 4000 extra deaths in Jakarta?
blindboy wrote:supafreak, I either backed my view up with a link to an authoritative source or a clear explanation of the problem. If that's not enough then sorry I can't help you any further.
But you backed it up with a dodgy link from techarp , sorry but that lacks credibility
Mate get serious, you really want to go through thus twice? Every statement in that techarp piece linked to the original data to back it up. Are you suffering from OCD? I mean here you are all day every day posting crap about a total friggin' non-issue. Shoot the shit up if you reckon it will do any good!
Like I said your full of it , you got nothing , the papers on 26 fraudulent trials don’t exist . You refuse to accept doctors in the US and here have successfully treated covid patients with a combination therapy that includes ivermectin. Your called blindboy for a good reason .
Old joke supafreak. Here's another de nile ain't just a river in Egypt. Get over it.
Agreed, your an old joke
Ha ha, we should keep this going supafreak, I love an old joke.
You should be on the stage....the next one out of town.
Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:Blowin wrote:san Guine wrote:"Australians have a drinking culture"
I'm not sure that is something to be proud of
It’s a fact of history. Be proud or don’t, you can’t alter historical fact. I’m not saying it’s the best thing ever but it’s certainly not the worst. Would you rather we had a culture of eating our enemies or cutting the sex organs out of women?
It’s Australian culture though. Alcohol was literally currency at the birth of modern Australia.
Is drinking culture? I guess it is when you compare it to cannibalism and genital mutilation. That would be a false equivalence.
But as a byproduct of 'your' perceived culture we get an ED full of trauma every Friday and Saturday nights, domestic violence, chronic liver disease leading to portal hypertension and ascites etc.
Would you rather we follow New Guinea and get women burnt alive cause they’re witches? Follow the Middle East and fill the hospitals with victims of suicide bombers who blow people up because they follow a different verdict of the same historic fiction about “God”? Follow the Japanese into working ourselves to death?
You appear very concerned that I might need to go and follow something and/or someone???
You also seem to equate drinking culture and Australian culture as one and the same.
Our drinking culture wouldn't even make the top ten.
Ireland, England, Scotland, Germany, Scandinavia...
No gold for Australia at the drinking culture Olympics. Not even a Bradbury could save us.
@Supa,
I haven't been following ivermectin at all, have no opinion on it this way or that, but Cam Wilson at Crikey just posted this and, ivermectin aside, it's a good summary of modern internet science:
Last week was the nail in the coffin for the idea that COVID-19 deaths can be prevented using ivermectin, an anti-parasitic drug lauded by the right, anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists.
The BBC reported that recent analysis shows none of the 26 major trials of the drug revealed promising results, and a third of those trials showed serious errors or evidence of fraud. The source of this analysis was a handful of guys spread across the globe — an epidemiologist, a medical researcher, a student, a data analyst and a chief science officer — who have been using Google Docs, Dropbox and Twitter to tackle and expose bad science in their spare time.
The idea that anyone can debunk bullshit is cool. On the other hand, it feels a bit grim that the burden of overturning evidence for the biggest problem in the world right now fell to five guys and not, like, the World Health Organization. I spoke to two Aussie members of the group, Kyle Sheldrick and Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz, who explained to me how the world wide web changed everything about how science works now.
It used to be that you would submit something to a publication like Science and, after jumping through enough hoops, your research could be published. If you had doubts about a published study, you could respond by writing a letter to the publication. Months would pass before anything happens, if something happens.
When the internet killed the gatekeeper, it opened the floodgates. Publishing your research became as easy as uploading it the internet — the eggheads call these “pre-print publications”— without the need for something as time consuming as a “peer review”.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, dodgy preprint studies have been going viral online as people search for answers. (Peer-reviewed work still happens and is important to legit journals, but it suffers from being too slow.)
People — like misinformation super-spreader Craig Kelly — can then shop around for a legit-looking PDF that “proves” what they already believed.
“There’s hundreds of papers coming out a day. If you were to publish fake ivermectin research, the chance of ever being found out is quite low,” Kyle told me.
A major ivermectin study that was retracted. (Image: Supplied)The flipside is that a ragtag team of medical research mercenaries can shape scientific knowledge using a shared spreadsheet of studies to coordinate their checks on study methodology, and some nifty statistical analysis based on publicly available results and data requested from research authors.
Once they’ve done this work, they publish on Twitter and on their personal blogs. They engage with people on social media to explain what they did and review other people’s work. All this took was a bit of knowhow and curiosity on their parts.
Their reward? “I get no financial incentives, there are no career incentives. You get paid in hate mail and death threats even if you’re successful getting fraudulent research looked at,” Gideon said.
Whether this model of “a good guy with a spreadsheet is the solution to a bad guy with the spreadsheet” trumps our pre-internet scientific publishing model is moot — the internet genie is well and truly out of the bottle — and also a false choice. That’s because gate-kept science had its problems with fraud too! It’s just that the traditional methods of gatekeeping aren’t screening for fraud like Kyle and Gideon’s crew are.
This is a major problem with scientific rigour and the internet. How are we supposed to know what’s real? What chance does a mere mortal have to understand medical research when the world’s top experts haven’t been spotting fraud? Even with Kyle and Gideon’s analysis, I’m just taking their critique in good faith. They are transparent, but all the details are gobbledygook to me.
And in case you didn’t realise, this same problem is happening in just about every other domain of life too.
But their story gives me hope. The world could have ignored Gideon and Kyle’s analysis. Instead, the world’s most read publishers are reporting that the reputation of ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment is in tatters because of their work.
Sure, the internet is the problem here. But it’s offering us solutions too.
San Guine said : “You also seem to equate drinking culture and Australian culture as one and the same.“
Nah. A kiwi bloke was having a whinge because a few young Aussies celebrated lockdown’s end with a few midnight beers, I told him that was Aussie culture and to get over it.
That’s the extent of it.
From stu’s post ….. But their story gives me hope. The world could have ignored Gideon and Kyle’s analysis. Instead, the world’s most read publishers are reporting that the reputation of ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment is in tatters because of their work.
Sure, the internet is the problem here. But it’s offering us solutions too. …….Here’s the thing stu , these 5 from Twitter haven’t put out a paper on their report , its just a story conveyed to the BBC and reported as fact . If there was any truth to this do you think governments and universities would continue to do their trials that cost millions ? For what purpose would they continue these trials if ivermectin showed no signal of efficiency ? People suck this up because they hate people like Craig Kelly and Trump so much that they want to see a repurposed cheap drug fail . Yet these same people will embrace an expensive EUA drug with limited safety profile from Merck. Funny world we live in .
They keep doing those trials as I have said before because people like you keep pushing the lie that there is evidence that ivermectin is effective when there isn't.
I'm not sure. Like I said I haven't followed it so I don't know why unis would continue with experiments. Perhaps there are more long-winded (read: hard to explain) reasons for doing so.
It'd be a tragedy if it were canned for the reasons you mentioned.
blindboy wrote:They keep doing those trials as I have said before because people like you keep pushing the lie that there is evidence that ivermectin is effective when there isn't.
So because of people like me they waste tens of millions of dollars , go to the top of the class blindboy .
@blindboy , your the brilliant science teacher and researcher ,I’ve got some homework for you , here’s the link that Tyler Durdan put up for you to look at , go ahead show everyone the 26 fraudulent trials . https://ivmmeta.com/
For the foreseeable future there are going to be a very large number of cases. The trials are to investigate the tiny remaining chance that ivermectin is in anyway effective. Given the existing data, the near certain results of further trials will be that it is ineffective. These can then be used to discourage countries were it has been used away from wasting their money.
People like you are just symptoms of the problem. You drank the Kool Aid others were selling for their own perverse reasons.
supafreak that is the link that has a 1% credibility rating which probably explains why tyler hadn't shown his face since posting it. You don't seriously expect me to waste my time analysing it do you?
https://www.scamdoc.com/view/535335
So your saying all the doctors and researchers on that link are a scam ? You can’t be serious .
Errr,.. BB your Scamdoc link is sending porn ads (in this part of the world anyway).
On the face of it, Im kinda thinking Supa's link looks more legit.
blindboy wrote:For the foreseeable future there are going to be a very large number of cases. The trials are to investigate the tiny remaining chance that ivermectin is in anyway effective. Given the existing data, the near certain results of further trials will be that it is ineffective. These can then be used to discourage countries were it has been used away from wasting their money.
People like you are just symptoms of the problem. You drank the Kool Aid others were selling for their own perverse reasons.
So the parts of India that gave out medicine packs containing ivermectin and vitamins were wasting their money ? You really have NFI watch the video and google the doctor https://www.bitchute.com/video/bsvK95i6njvd/
That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?
blindboy wrote:That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?
I don’t actually believe you , your just like me , a random bloke posting on a surf forum , you can make up whatever you want . I’m done with you .
blindboy wrote:That's what the evidence says supa. And I do have an idea. More than an idea actually, a science degree and 30 years of teaching senior Biology including epidemiology, the human immune system and the evaluation of research. Not to mention a daughter who is a nurse on the frontline who updates me regularly. What about you? What are your qualifications and experience?
I don’t actually believe you , your just like me , a random bloke posting on a surf forum , you can make up whatever you want . I’m done with you .
Well you are wrong but it's a pity you don't put thst scepticism to better use.
Some eye watering figures on profit that Merck stands to possibly make , no wonder they declined kitasato university and satoshi omura ( nobel prize winner ) who wanted to team up and do trials for ivermectin . No conspiracy here just good old plain and simple greed , but they gotta look after the shareholders so totally understandable . https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/10/08/anti-covid-drug...
The Nature article below takes a broader view. Being designed to disrupt the replication of nucleic acids the drug does have risks which need to be assessed before it is approved. Changing the sequence of nucleotides changes the polypeptide produced and, potentially, the function of the virus. In the majority of cases this will either have no effect or produce a negative effect on its ability to reproduce. Changes that made it more infectious or more pathogenic would be expected to be rare but could occur. As for the cost India have already produced a generic version.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02783-1
Good to see you moving on.....I hope.
And Australian has ordered 300,000 courses at over $900 per course . Did you find the paper yet on 26 fraudulent trials ?
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia