Fun early next week before another poor setup establishes
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th January)
Best Days: Today exposed beaches, Monday morning, Tuesday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny surf over the coming days with gusty N/NE winds tomorrow, easing later and light N tending S/SW winds Fri
- Mod-fresh S winds Sat with tiny surf
- Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Sun, peaking into the PM with moderate E/SE tending fresh S/SE winds
- Easing W/SW groundswell Mon with light-mod E/NE-NE winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
- Smaller, reinforcing SW swell Tue with fresh N/NW tending strong S/SW winds
- Strong S/SW winds Wed, S'ly Thu, and SE Fri
Another tiny day of surf yesterday but great beach weather, while there's a small, infrequent W/SW swell in the water today and a slight lift in S/SE windswell coming in at 2ft+ on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula (worth making the most of) and 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast.
This week and weekend (Jan 27 – 30)
The small, inconsistent W/SW swell and S/SE windswell seen today will ease into tomorrow and a broad, multi-centred trough that's brought the humid weather all week will start to move east, squeezing pressure gradients with a high in the Tasman Sea.
Strengthening N/NE winds will then be seen into tomorrow morning, easing a touch into the afternoon but with no size. Both locations only look to be 1-1.5ft, hardly breaking on the early morning high tide.
Friday morning will remain tiny in size and conditions should be clean again with a light N'ly ahead of a shallow S/SW change as the trough pushes further east.
A high pushing in behind the trough will bring moderate to fresh S'ly winds on Saturday but with no new swell, while we'll see our new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell filling in on Sunday as winds shift E/SE in the morning (moderate in strength) ahead of gusty afternoon S/SE winds.
The polar low linked to this swell has formed around the Heard Island region and is generating a heathy fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds through our swell window while tracking east. It'll break down south of Western Australia tomorrow evening, leaving the swell to travel up and towards us for Sunday.
It'll be inconsistent but we should see the Surf Coast building to 3ft to occasionally 4ft into the afternoon on the magnets and 5-6ft to the east. Those winds will create average conditions though, with Monday looking the pick as winds shift around to the E/NE-NE ahead of sea breezes.
The swell should still be fun in size, easing from an inconsistent 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-5ft to the east.
Longer term a much weaker polar storm looks to generate a smaller, mid-period SW swell for Tuesday as another trough moves through bringing a N/NW offshore ahead of a stronger S/SW change. Size wise it looks to 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.
Behind this trough another high will slowly move in, maintaining gusty S/SW winds on Wednesday, shifting S'ly Thursday and then SE into Friday but with no new swell.
The outlook into the start of February looks like more of the same with winds out of the east and building levels of south-east windswell as instability to our north and in the Tasman Sea squeezes high pressure sitting to our south. The blocking pattern will also prevent any major swells being generated. More on this Friday.