Fun early next week before another poor setup establishes

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th January)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, Monday morning, Tuesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Tiny surf over the coming days with gusty N/NE winds tomorrow, easing later and light N tending S/SW winds Fri
  • Mod-fresh S winds Sat with tiny surf
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Sun, peaking into the PM with moderate E/SE tending fresh S/SE winds
  • Easing W/SW groundswell Mon with light-mod E/NE-NE winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes
  • Smaller, reinforcing SW swell Tue with fresh N/NW tending strong S/SW winds
  • Strong S/SW winds Wed, S'ly Thu, and SE Fri

Recap

Another tiny day of surf yesterday but great beach weather, while there's a small, infrequent W/SW swell in the water today and a slight lift in S/SE windswell coming in at 2ft+ on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula (worth making the most of) and 1-1.5ft on the Surf Coast.

Inconsistent but surfable this AM

This week and weekend (Jan 27 – 30)

The small, inconsistent W/SW swell and S/SE windswell seen today will ease into tomorrow and a broad, multi-centred trough that's brought the humid weather all week will start to move east, squeezing pressure gradients with a high in the Tasman Sea.

Strengthening N/NE winds will then be seen into tomorrow morning, easing a touch into the afternoon but with no size. Both locations only look to be 1-1.5ft, hardly breaking on the early morning high tide.

Friday morning will remain tiny in size and conditions should be clean again with a light N'ly ahead of a shallow S/SW change as the trough pushes further east.

A high pushing in behind the trough will bring moderate to fresh S'ly winds on Saturday but with no new swell, while we'll see our new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell filling in on Sunday as winds shift E/SE in the morning (moderate in strength) ahead of gusty afternoon S/SE winds.

The polar low linked to this swell has formed around the Heard Island region and is generating a heathy fetch of gale to severe-gale W'ly winds through our swell window while tracking east. It'll break down south of Western Australia tomorrow evening, leaving the swell to travel up and towards us for Sunday.

It'll be inconsistent but we should see the Surf Coast building to 3ft to occasionally 4ft into the afternoon on the magnets and 5-6ft to the east. Those winds will create average conditions though, with Monday looking the pick as winds shift around to the E/NE-NE ahead of sea breezes.

The swell should still be fun in size, easing from an inconsistent 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4-5ft to the east.

Longer term a much weaker polar storm looks to generate a smaller, mid-period SW swell for Tuesday as another trough moves through bringing a N/NW offshore ahead of a stronger S/SW change. Size wise it looks to 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.

Behind this trough another high will slowly move in, maintaining gusty S/SW winds on Wednesday, shifting S'ly Thursday and then SE into Friday but with no new swell.

The outlook into the start of February looks like more of the same with winds out of the east and building levels of south-east windswell as instability to our north and in the Tasman Sea squeezes high pressure sitting to our south. The blocking pattern will also prevent any major swells being generated. More on this Friday.

Comments

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 4:37pm

God this has been a terrible run, beautiful weather but just tiny low period waves, its like ground hog day, few calls of worst summer ever.

Does look like the banks are getting better though which seems to happen with a run of small days and any east in the wind.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 5:32pm

Shocker all right. these 2 week foreys can be uplifting or crushing. . Yet I have to know.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:18pm

Been great on the western end of the peninsula, best summer I've seen

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 8:40pm

Ha!

pjbyron's picture
pjbyron's picture
pjbyron Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 6:54pm

Have a mate surfing on the other side of the Otways, claiming it's been chest to head high and just about perfect beaches. No complaints from him.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:05pm

Yeah would be down there as gets more swell, Woolamai & Kilcunda have been knee to waist high on sets most of the time and inconsistent weak & crowded.

I loved these conditions as a grommet, but these days just too small & weak.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:41pm

Your mate is lieing to you banks have been terrible everywhere

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:24pm

Pretty flat on the open beaches all week and barley got into the mid 30s within the city. Humidities been nice though

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:33pm

Head high rattlers and no one surfing from Portsea to the mountain range for weeks

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:56pm

Head high? The clubbies would have to close the beach!

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 5:47am

your taller than me bone

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 7:56pm

Been a great run of weather, we really get it all down here in Vicco....icy cold winters, hot summers. Sometimes dry sometimes humid.

The bay is super warm, had some great deep water (well, for the bay) swims. Got to be mid to low 20s.

But yeah, surfwise, worst run I can remember in the last 10 years or so I've lived here.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:14pm

Week leading into Xmas was really fun, 4-5 days of good surf for this time of year. That was 6 weeks ago. Since then, there was 1 good day, which was 2 weeks ago. Been a lean run that’s for sure.
On the flip side, best summer weather-wise I can remember for a long time. Lots of beach time with the fam

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:21pm

Bit of fun on the ninch today. The water was spectacular!

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Wednesday, 26 Jan 2022 at 9:44pm

Plenty of waves but really small. There have been the odd slightly bigger days but it gas been pretty gutless, case in point today. The small wave boards gave all been getting a workout.
I'm not sure that down south/ west of the Cape actually gets any more swell than the open beaches on the MP and the island, same orientation.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:00am

Answer to that last question.. bathymetry ;)

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:02am

Hahah there you go, he beat me to it.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:03am

It definitely does blackers. Yeah it faces the same direction but ………. etc will 99% of the time be 2-3 feet bigger than Gunna - Portsea.
I’m guessing it’s deeper water closer to the coast so the swell doesn’t lose as much strength but Craig could probably correct me hahah

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:13am

Apparently, it is 24.7777% bigger and 32.6666% scarier.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:26am

Yep loss of energy due to bottom friction through Bass Strait shaves off a couple of feet.

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:01am

Wellthereyougo. Cheers.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:01am

How are the storms down your way guys and gals? The cameras look insane with it lighting up every second or so.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:05am

Woke up with the bedroom bedroom being lit up. Pretty cool

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:08am

Yeah, no rain though. Be pumping chest highties today. Without the big wave chest beaters.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:25am

Yeah very localised, would be torrential under one of the cells though.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 6:10am

seems to be just skirting past Sorrgowrie, a good light show though.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 7:56am

It's interesting these major storms pretty much always go right through Melb & the burbs but miss or just the edge hits coastal areas, very tropical weather though very humid.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:45am

Yeah, or like last night heading straight for the peninsula out of the NW then vanish as they hit the bay.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 8:59am

All topography based.

Storms fired up west of and across the small ranges to the west and north-west, helped by orographic lift.

On the down-slope side the air is descending and warming (drying out), taking away the energy source hence them petering out.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:00am

I think the storms coming from the NW get split but the Macedon ranges

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:26am

If you're on the right board there's been fun waves about. Hot in a springy yesterday arvo and surfed just with friends in glassy 2ft peaks with 500 on the beach. Doesn't get much more pleasant in the water in Vic. But a groundswell would be nice.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:36am

Yeh I'd be keen to see historic stats on water temps... this summer feels like water temps have been at their highest for some time. Not sure if imagining it or not

vicbloke's picture
vicbloke's picture
vicbloke Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:03am

Been bodysurfing 2-3 times a week due to the lack of decent surf. Water does feel a touch warmer this year which is a little surprising considering how cool spring. Also felt like a late start to summer this year. loving the warmth though.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:47am

Looks a nice 21-22 on the Surf Coast..

2°C above average..

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:07am

So good wish it was always like this

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:30am

Wow thats weird how the estuary system of Corner inlet (behind Wilson prom) and Lakes Entrance are so cool even though they are very shallow much shallower than most of Westerport bay that has the deepest shipping channel in the southern hemisphere.

I havent been fishing but the Tuna have been going off too even a few odd ones caught in the bay and the quality in size of King George whiting have been some of the best I've ever seen, in the past its been rare as hens teeth to get a 1KG plus whiting maybe one a year is caught, but this year ive seen a few reports/photos of 1kg plus fish.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:54am

Indo, looks like a data issue there.

Checked a day before and it is warm as..

Always great to double check data if you can, glad I did.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 12:15pm

Ok cheers thats makes sense

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:46am

Any correlation with water temps and shark sightings?
It's probably my perception but the vic emergency app has pinged a lot more this year than previous ones.

I know it's multi-factorial and maybe more people in the ocean because of the hot weather and more people notifying via the app etc.
But curious nonetheless.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:51am

Sure they aren't Gary G sightings?

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 1:08pm

Whilst Gary loves exposing himself to the exposed coastlines, unless the app you're referring to is OnlyFans you won't have sighted Gary on it.

Gary was recently sighted west of the Otways but didn't sight many other surfers while there. One day it was smaller than Gary has ever seen, 1ft waves crumbling over the sand at a spot that is never that small.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 1:50pm

I've noticed it too, pinging like crazy and usually in the same locations

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 2:14pm

Yeah I wondered if it was the same creature cruising the same spot.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 2:17pm

Don't dorsal now have the shark number so you know?

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 4:21pm

Ooh didn't know that :)

Will check it out.

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 3:56pm

A few of the blokes who have been chasing the tuna just outside the heads have said there have been quite a few big fish swimming around. I'm not sure how the app works but could it be the fisho's reporting them?

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 4:16pm

Today

https://www.dorsalwatch.com/report/index.html?country=1

(Link doesn't take you directly to surf coast - have to set location to search)

COMMENT
1X BRONZE WHALER AND 1X HAMMERHEAD SHARK SIGHTED BY LSV IN FAIRHAVEN AREA LOCATION: FAIRHAVEN, MOGGS CREEK SIGHTING CONFIRMED: AIR - LS30 SPECIES: BRONZE WHALER 2.5M, HAMMERHEAD 2.5M BEHAVIOUR: BRONZE WHALER IS 600M WEST OF CLUB HANGING AROUND IN SHALLOWS, HAMMERHEAD IS 150M OUT OF MOGGS CREEK RIVER MOUTH NUMBER OF SHARKS: 2 Provided by the Victorian Fisheries Authority.

https://www.bay939.com.au/news/local-news/131519-beach-evacuated-at-fair...

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 4:35pm

Ouch - was swimming very close to there with the kids last week.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 4:59pm

Same. Was out there 2 days ago with a large seal swimming around. Nothing really to fear though. Hammerheads and Bronzey's not much of a threat.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 9:52am
icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:26am

One thing I've noticed down our way is the super low tides recently. I've looked for data, but only have only found this year and last to compare - on BOM and only data for Port Phillip Heads. Am I right? Has anyone else noticed this?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:41am

Had a very quick look to 2016 and the tides look about the same.

There's likely be an inverse barometer effect occurring with the constant high pressure, pushing down sea levels a touch more than normal. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/01/27/midsummer-recap

Having a search for the sea level residuals now.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:52am

Awesome. Thanks Craig. Is there a possibility it's localised also.....from about Anglesea to Lorne ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 10:55am

That can happen if there's a coastally trapped wave but these things are usually forced by wind (ie gale-force westerlies and cold fronts through the Bight).

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:24am

Great historical updates today Craig, appreciate it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 11:56am

No worries Dx3, love it!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 5:08pm

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 5:28pm

Sky has gone black here, its on its way.
BTW got caught in one of those torrential downpours while walking the dogs this morning, felt like I was in FNQ.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 5:31pm

Yeah radar looks ominous!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 5:39pm

Bit of action this arvo

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 7:35pm

Radar lighting up now!

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:20pm

Light show going off!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:21pm

Epic lightshow in the city....crazy watching the planes line up and fly straight into it.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:26pm

Anddddd loudest crack of lightning on peninsula ever surely approx 9:23

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Thursday, 27 Jan 2022 at 9:28pm

Felt like the biggest lightening storm I’ve ever experienced tonight on the surf coast. House was shaking.

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 11:45am

Great reading. How could anyone ever cancel their subscription to Swellnet. The constant informative and thoroughly interesting information is gold to all of us. It seems almost anytime I get on here there’s some data or meteorological fact that just makes sense and REALLY well explained.
Kudos to all the folk that comprise that team. Alas, most of us subscribers reckon we know a bit more than your average Jo/Joanne on the street and its great that a topic that affects all of us is robustly discussed whether we are right or wrong.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 12:00pm

Thanks for the very kind words Alfred, very much appreciated and I love teaching and helping people learn/understand the infinite processes that occur constantly surround us.

indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming's picture
indo-dreaming Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 3:22pm

Some serious rain and thunderstorms coming through this arvo.

And Sunday 15.6s @ 3-4ft is much better, i can live with ESE @ 15knts

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 4:25pm

Alfred. I’ll give Craig till the end of feb (no longer) to produce some better foreys or I’m pulling the credit card.

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Friday, 28 Jan 2022 at 7:03pm

Greyhound. Totally agree. A lot of us may have a copy of this, I’ve just finished reading mine, which is the 3rd and current Edition, ‘Waves and Beaches’ ‘The Powerful Dynamics Of Sea and Coast’ by Willard Bascom & Kim McCoy. A very fine publication, first written in 1963 (Bascom) and updated in 1979 (Bascom). What a book, every surfer should read it. If anybody has the addresses of the engineers or geomorphologists who consulted on the Collaroy sea wall, I’d be more than happy to send them a copy. Simply can’t believe the mistakes and ignorance to all the basic principles of the sea. I’m pretty sure that most or all of the Swellnet team would have a copy.