Craig

Extended run of good waves on the Surf Coast

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th February)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday, Monday, early Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday morning

Recap

Fun easing waves across all locations yesterday with clean 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves to the east.

This morning most locations were small and onshore besides Torquay which saw offshore winds and a small 1-2ft of swell for desperate surfers.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Feb 9 - 15)

From tomorrow were set to see a flurry of different swells of different strengths and directions owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough stalling across the south-east of the country.

The first frontal system falling under it's spell is currently south of the Bight and it's been upgraded in strength a little.

A good fetch of strong W/SW winds are being projected towards us through our western swell window, with this system due to push into the south-east of South Australia early tomorrow and across us through the day.

We're likely to see a good increase in mid-period and strengthening W/SW swell through tomorrow, small and to 1-2ft or so on the Surf Coast in the morning, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, building steadily to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively into the afternoon. Conditions will be average though with an early fresh W/NW wind giving into a strong W/SW-SW change mid-late morning as the front moves across us.

Sunday looks much cleaner with an offshore W/NW wind for the Surf Coast and stronger 3ft to possibly 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ sets to the east with a peak in mid-period energy. The swell will ease through the day and conditions should remain clean until mid-afternoon as winds tend W midday and then SW.

The swell is now due to continue easing on Monday as we fall between swell pulses, though not dropping below 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east. A morning N/NW breeze should provide plenty of options, tending NW and W/NW into the afternoon.

Our next pulse of mid-period swell is due out of the SW on Tuesday, generated by a polar fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds, projecting towards us for 18 hours or so before weakening.

This should provide a boost in size to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast during the morning and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but this will then be superseded by a short-range and rapid increase in new W/SW swell.

A strengthening polar front developing in a similar spot to the storm linked to the AM's swell will project a fetch of SW gales up towards the Bight through our western swell window.

The front is then forecast to move in and towards us Tuesday, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales right on our doorstep through our western swell window, pushing in across us through the morning. This will cause a dawn NW breeze to swing strong W-W/SW mid-morning while kicking the surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east.

A peak in groundswell is due on Wednesday morning and we should see the Surf Coast peaking at 4-6ft, with 8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula along with a morning W/NW offshore, only tending W/SW into the afternoon.

The easing trend will be slow as follow up weaker frontal activity moves in behind the strongest of the fronts. Winds look to remain favourable for the Surf Coast Thursday morning before reverting back to the S'th on Friday as a high moves in. So all in all it's looking like a great run of waves for the Surf Coast from Sunday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 3:06pm

Yeehaaa.... I'm waxing up already!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 4:06pm

That's great news 'Walk around G'!

Means I might have someone to share the waves with tomorrow. (I'll be the bloke in the black wetsuit.)

Catch ya!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 3:21pm

Oh sh$#, don't go there Gary....

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 3:26pm

Don't worry, G, a professional like Gary is always fully waxed.
A summer forecast like this also has him standing to attention.

You and me, Gary, ain’t nothing but mammals so let’s do it* like they do it on the aerobics channel

*faceys

HKFC's picture
HKFC's picture
HKFC commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 4:45pm

Yewwwwwwww

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 4:58pm

ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. can we have a week of ENE in Winter in return?

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPE!!!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 8 Feb 2019 at 6:26pm

You poor bugger....so totally bazaar this summer. Global warming.... nah it's all good, let's drill for some MORE oil, this time in the Great Australian Bite....now that's a tops idea :(

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 11:52am

Crowdacious conditions on the coast today! Hope you found shelter from the storm.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 12:18pm

Nightmare.

After counting nearly 50 punters clogging the length of Colders to Sparrows at about 9.30 I went back home and found something else to do.

Bring on mid week surf, cold water and icy winds please.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 2:17pm

Worst crowds I've ever seen on the Surf Coast today. 50-60 at every single break and 80 + at winki. The only saving grace is half the crowd were fat dudes "riding" Mick Fanning dimension boards.
What a fucking circus, There was even a pop up coffee shop in the Bells carpark FFS.
Tomorrow's an RDO so we can expect the usual pack of aggressive tradies paddling around like blue-arsed flies snaking the fuck out of everyone.

superfish's picture
superfish's picture
superfish commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 2:47pm

oh no we have to surf on a sunday with other people ): life is so hard raaaaahhhh

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 4:32pm

Yep, I agree with the above comments but luckily the crowd thinned out enough to enjoy some runners, later once the morning over-froth settled down. This is the future guys, we are just going to have to get use to it due to population growth, yardi, yarda........ but what I really think is needed, are for the REAL local crew, people that are born and bred there, to step-up and get vocal, you need to get some of the local talent to start enforcing some surf etiquette out there, now to be very clear, I'm definitely NOT talking violence but someone needs to start pulling rank in this bloody nanny state of Victoria, we're all so bloody politically correct that all standard surfing etiquette has gone out the window and it's turned into an absolute shit fight. You wouldn't get out of place kooks out at the premiere surf spots in Hawaii, the core crew would make sure of that and tell them where to surf

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:05pm

Today’s conditions were more like Waikiki than the North Shore.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 3:44pm

have a spell walk around g. put the cue in the rack for 6months and neck up ya parrot.
what kind of a mupput goes to the beach when its 2/3 foot and on a weekend when it gives everyone a chance to get a wave....then complains about.
be smart like me and go tomorrow and enjoy

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 4:24pm

Pigdog. tomorrow's an RDO so the crowd won't be thinning much. I've found RDO days are the worst in terms of crowd behaviour and sheer incompetence in the surf. The fuckers should be made to wear hi-viz in the water as well as the building site.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 4:53pm

I'm sorry pigdog, I didn't mean to offend you with my poor spelling, I have ammended my post for you and I hope it's up to your high standards. I do however stand by my original post and opinion.

Just so you are aware, I will also be there tomorrow, Wednesday and possibly Thursday, Why? How? I've dedicated my life to surfing by sacrificing many luxuries, probably won't ever have loads of cash but I've organised flexibility in work hours, I have also done my dues to be accepted by the locals after many years and hours and hours of dedication. Maybe take a look at where we are heading with regards to the line-up structure and ask yourself, is this what you want? Yes, I agree everyone deserves waves but there still needs to be some etiquette and today there was clearly non.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 4:52pm

ill take an rdo day to surf any day instead of a sat or sunday.
https://forecast.id.com.au/surf-coast
going to be busy in 2036

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 5:38pm

Talk around G, who are you?
Go on, give us a hint !
Question 1. Do you sport a beard??

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 6:21pm

hey vic local ive got an rdo tomorrow and i will be paddling around like a blue arsed fly because your coast line is riddled with fuckwits with no idea of ettiquitte, you are a shocker yourself half the time. Ive been snaked by you and your old fart local legends plenty of times while waiting my turn, im over being polite in the water, you get no waves, sad state of affairs but hey its the new normal.
im a fifo worker who between paying for a family to exist and working insane hours dosnt get wet as often as i would like. After living in torquay for a year back in 2011 I soon realised that surfing on that strectch at this time of year is just plain painfull.
winki is just a fuckwits paradise and bells is full of tosspots on 8 ft boards thinking they at waimea. see you tomorow for a coffee in the carpark,

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 7:00pm

ha gold

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:41pm

No probs re coffee in the carpark Ant agonist. They had a fucking coffee van there the last two days. We can talk about surf etiquette too.
FYI the locals get the best waves because they wait their turn, don't paddle inside each other, and will happily shut down "inside johnnies" who think it's OK to paddle past the end of the line. Oh and the people who commit to uppers only to sprint back to lowers when the wide sets arrive, will get justifiably smoked.
Each surfbreak has it's own set of "rules". Bringing a Snapper Rocks approach (by paddling around like a blue arse fly) to the point breaks in Vic is never going to end well.

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:58pm

I agree with some of the frustration but I reckon there’s are large portion of your position on locals and etiquette that may very be horse shit mate. Also we are talking about bells and winki, not snapper, not the north shore. There’s an entire coast of arguably better places to surf.
And it was a Sunday, in February.
And maybe 3ft.
And very slow.
Let’s get a bit of perspective.

For what it’s worth I’ve surfed other spots along the coast, places i’d consider myself a local, only for the lineup to be ruined by blowins from Torquay.

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 5:43pm

vic local you stood me up, was waiting in the carpark in my hi vis with coffee in hand!. your prediction of mad crowds was wrong, but i still got snaked by some old cunts on long boards after waiting 40 minutes. your theory on bells and winki locals sharing like happy children is rather deluded.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 8:09pm

Was there this morning with my 45 new friends. No coffee van though. Plenty of surfers out who simply don't have the basic capabilities eg don't look left, can't duck dive, scramble for the shoulder when the sets come, can't make it down the face.
Luckily for me, the crowd were like sheep today and they managed to cause mayhem on each other at uppers leaving me in peace elsewhere.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 9:44pm

lol that's gold!

Yellow vest protest Victorian style

FWIW I counted 65+ on Bowl/Rincon/Centreside and Southside carpark was pretty full too about mid morning. No coffee van

I remember reading an ASL Australia Day article from the 2000s, stated a count of 120+ on Bells on that day.

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 6:55pm

Why is no one talking about today's report? Grossly over-rated IMO. Once you are 7/10 and up range it should be reasonable to expect a straight, groomed groundswell and consistent sets. Was nothing like it. Slow and wonky a better description. Yes the report qualified it by saying sets were inconsistent but how inconsistent? 5min? 15mins? 45mins? I surfed a generally fickle spot away from the crowds, so allowed a bit of leeway, but expected much better based on past reports of the same rating.

Maybe it has already been discussed, but considering we are now paying a fee(albeit minimal) for the early reports can't we at least get some sort of standardisation in reporting? For instance how long do the reporters sit and observe conditions and how can we know they are getting the full picture. They could watch for 10 mins see two four wave sets come through at 4ft, write up the report 7/10, piss off to surf, then no more sets come through for the next 20 mins.

I realise there's lots of variables and one spot to the next is affected differently, but is it possible to have separate rating for various indicators for example what I observed today:
set wave height (around 3ft)
set consistency (<5min, 10-15mins, +15mins) today = +15mins
waves per set (1-2, 3-4, +5) today = 1-2
swell formation (straight, wonky, peaky, victory at sea) today = wonky
surface conditions (as opposed to wind direction) (glassy, ruffled, bumpy, white capping) today=ruffled

This would simplify the reporters job rather than having to type up a spiel for each new report.

And if the reporter is observing the same location each day, with enough experience it is easy enough for us punters to extrapolate for other spots.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 7:15pm

How long would the reporter expect too watch with this new format?

What happens if they see a few 3 wave sets but then a couple of 5 wave sets?

What happens if there is a pulse and sees plenty of waves (>5mins) then not many (+15mins)?

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 8:51pm

Yeah agree which is probably why they don't use a system like this. I guess they would indicate how long they observe and just report what they see. Its just frustrating that when you get up to the higher rated days it should be pretty clear cut that its on the pump and there are decent waves at most spots. If its a little ambiguous then drop the rating down to 6 or below.
And just to clarify i'm not just exclusively going by SN reports to decide whether to make the drive or not there's plenty of other data but its mainly used as a final "eyewitness account" of conditions so should be somewhat consistent in its definitions.

beenjammin's picture
beenjammin's picture
beenjammin commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 8:31pm

We should also introduce a comment rating system like:
1-3 that’s a fucking horrible idea
4-7 has legs
8-10 roll it out
Your idea = 0

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:41pm

Line up clogging kooks like you are the problem in 2019 pal.

FFS....your blaming a 'surf forecasting' website for your lack of satisfaction today after dutifully driving down here based on someone else's advise.

Here's a tip......next time use some of your own initiative ya fucken muppet.

(Directed at that pocket rocket idiot)

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 10:00pm

Had a rough day mate?? How about going back and reading my reply to Nick bone. Sheeesh

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 10:21pm

.
Fuck your reply to 'Nick Bone'.

My point is that you're another useless pleb that needs spoon feeding from a website to dictate when you drive down the coast. The upside is, you and your kind won't be here tomorrow or Tuesday or whatever day the waves are firing when Swellnet aren't on to it.

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 10:15pm

Man you are fucking clueless...

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 3:51am

No, the definition of 'clueless' here are sheep like you that need a website to tell them when and where to go surfing......

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 7:53pm

West coast lads aren't happy!
I find it hard to have sympathy when its a Sunday, small swell and summer and you STILL go to Bells and Winki..
Surely you can go looking elsewhere.

I surfed 5-6ft waves with 2 mates out today, yes it was onshore and not perfect but fuck it was fun. Maybe do as WAG suggested and start pulling rank a bit over there.

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 8:55pm

Meh...I've been that desperate I went for a bay wave a week or so back.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:06pm

Try a downwinder pocket rocket... Some weeks in summer I get 3_4 in a week... I know it's like half a foot but it replicates about %65 of what surfing feels like and days like today you don't have to surf because I'm satisfied
https://youtu.be/J2nhwHK4k5o

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:32pm

Lol those guys were whizzing all around me the day I was out there. But nah, it's not for me - too much gear...

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:53pm

a kite and a harness too much gear you are cooked

poket-roket's picture
poket-roket's picture
poket-roket commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 10:13pm

I've watched those guys set up - takes about 1/2 hour by the time they drag their stuff down to the sand get the kite in the air then scamper down to the water.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:38pm

Where's your 'follow me' drone footage pigdog......yeeeww! Stay satisfied.

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:14pm

stop giving them ideas Goofy!!! let the sheep be .......

Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist's picture
Ant agonist commented Sunday, 10 Feb 2019 at 9:37pm

i woke up this morning had a look at the surf cam and realised pretty quick the west coast was over reported, if thats a seven out of ten then the observed report is a joke, if you rely on these reports to know if its worth the drive then jim henson might have a new job for you on his show. beakers brother if your lucky
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aEDxdrzIt4

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 6:23am

SN should ditch the dawn report, as somehow they post it before it’s even light. So it’s just a guess from the evening before and possibly also bouy and wind data.

Solitude's picture
Solitude's picture
Solitude commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 9:54am

Interesting to read all the melodrama of the surfcoast on here.

A few years back I was travelling the country in a van. I'd arrived at Torquay and posted up in the caravan park for a few days. With the promise of a bit of swell I woke before sunrise and slowly drove towards Bells. In the dark on the drive there I was passed by some screaming down the road > 100km/h. As I got to the Bell's carpark someone even over took me on the turn in!
Got myself a park (still dark) and in the carpark I saw a guy trip over his board in his rush to get ready. I couldn't believe it, being from the east coast I've surfed crowded spots, but this amount of froth and angst was at another level.
It was a fairly good day, 4-6 foot and offshore but still. This was 5 years ago, can't imagine what its like now??

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G commented Monday, 11 Feb 2019 at 11:22am

Gary surfed a very well frequented break this morning (he refers to it as ‘Gary’s’) just outside of the set of conditions where people flock to it. He paddled out in the dark, found some reasonably solid sets, and the ‘crowd’ in his vicinity peaked at 2 others.

A little bit of imagination goes a long way, but by all means go to winki on low tide on Sunday in February with a user friendly swell and complain about how the surf coast has gone to the dogs.

You and me, Gary, ain’t nothing but mammals so let’s do it* like they do it on the aerobics channel

*faceys

tux's picture
tux's picture
tux commented Tuesday, 12 Feb 2019 at 10:56am

Yep its over crowed and shit on the surf coast...waves are as fat when there is any waves...may as well go somewhere else