Extended run of good waves on the Surf Coast
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 8th February)
Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday, Monday, early Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday morning
Fun easing waves across all locations yesterday with clean 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft waves to the east.
This morning most locations were small and onshore besides Torquay which saw offshore winds and a small 1-2ft of swell for desperate surfers.
This weekend and next week (Feb 9 - 15)
From tomorrow were set to see a flurry of different swells of different strengths and directions owing to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough stalling across the south-east of the country.
The first frontal system falling under it's spell is currently south of the Bight and it's been upgraded in strength a little.
A good fetch of strong W/SW winds are being projected towards us through our western swell window, with this system due to push into the south-east of South Australia early tomorrow and across us through the day.
We're likely to see a good increase in mid-period and strengthening W/SW swell through tomorrow, small and to 1-2ft or so on the Surf Coast in the morning, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, building steadily to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively into the afternoon. Conditions will be average though with an early fresh W/NW wind giving into a strong W/SW-SW change mid-late morning as the front moves across us.
Sunday looks much cleaner with an offshore W/NW wind for the Surf Coast and stronger 3ft to possibly 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ sets to the east with a peak in mid-period energy. The swell will ease through the day and conditions should remain clean until mid-afternoon as winds tend W midday and then SW.
The swell is now due to continue easing on Monday as we fall between swell pulses, though not dropping below 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east. A morning N/NW breeze should provide plenty of options, tending NW and W/NW into the afternoon.
Our next pulse of mid-period swell is due out of the SW on Tuesday, generated by a polar fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds, projecting towards us for 18 hours or so before weakening.
This should provide a boost in size to 3ft+ across the Surf Coast during the morning and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but this will then be superseded by a short-range and rapid increase in new W/SW swell.
A strengthening polar front developing in a similar spot to the storm linked to the AM's swell will project a fetch of SW gales up towards the Bight through our western swell window.
The front is then forecast to move in and towards us Tuesday, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales right on our doorstep through our western swell window, pushing in across us through the morning. This will cause a dawn NW breeze to swing strong W-W/SW mid-morning while kicking the surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east.
A peak in groundswell is due on Wednesday morning and we should see the Surf Coast peaking at 4-6ft, with 8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula along with a morning W/NW offshore, only tending W/SW into the afternoon.
The easing trend will be slow as follow up weaker frontal activity moves in behind the strongest of the fronts. Winds look to remain favourable for the Surf Coast Thursday morning before reverting back to the S'th on Friday as a high moves in. So all in all it's looking like a great run of waves for the Surf Coast from Sunday. Have a great weekend!