Pipe Masters: Forecast Update

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Dispatch

As of today, we're five days into the Pipe Masters waiting period. However, we're yet to see any heats surfed, while a victory-at-sea scenario awaits organisers at the end of the wating period.

How might they plan their days ahead?

Following a small pulse of contestable energy through Tuesday and Wednesday morning local time (4ft Pipe), the outlook for the end of the waiting period remains very active. Two significant swells are expected but unfortunately they'll arrive under deteriorating local wind conditions.

The first swell will be generated by a strong low forming off the Aleutian Island chain tomorrow, with a fetch of severe-gale N/NW winds aimed towards Hawaii. The swell is expected to arrive - also out of the N/NW - on Friday Hawaiian time (Saturday our time), building to 8-10ft by dark and holding in the 10ft range through Saturday.

So far, so good.

On Friday, as the swell arrives, local winds will be light SW, which might just be workable - better for Pipe than Backdoor - possibly providing a good window of waves before the sun sets behind Kaena Point. Overnight, however, the low that generated the swell will spawn a cold front that'll bring nasty onshore winds from the N/NE on Saturday.

Friday night's front will also generate additional mid-period N/NW swell for Saturday afternoon - further complicating the sea state. On Sunday both swells will ease, however there'll be a short period of grace before the wind again deteriorates, this time strengthening from the SW during the day.

Sunday's strong Kona winds are linked to the next swell producer, which will be a deep low projecting in from the north-west, bringing a large, stormy mix of localised W/NW windswell and mid-period NW swell.

This swell will be large and raw - classic victory-at-sea swell conditions - and if we're to put a number on it, then let's peg it at 12-15ft on Tuesday Hawaiian time. However, the size may be academic as it'll be breaking under strong SW winds. Effectively a total write-off on the final day of the waiting period.

With this in mind they'll likely try and finish off the event by Monday afternoon as the swell and winds start to really build.

Regardless is should make for entertaining viewing with the raw, wild, windy conditions.


bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Tuesday, 13 Dec 2022 at 8:47pm

Wish the pro's get at least one deep barrel ... (& Craig, Ben, Stu, Steve at spots X, Y, Z, RR....ect)

Where I grew up it was courteous to consider "ladies before gentlemen", so...
Tuesday and Wednesday morning local time (4ft Pipe) girls with gaffs?
Friday Hawaiian time (Saturday our time), building to 8-10ft! gents?
Sat - Monday crazy keen dudes needing a bigger sponsor!

Standingleft's picture
Standingleft's picture
Standingleft Thursday, 15 Dec 2022 at 10:15pm

victory-at-sea scenario
bring it on

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 5:21am

Should be good watching the carnage in the tricky conditions.

Seems weird that it’s called the Pipe Masters though.

wally's picture
wally's picture
wally Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 9:31am

Koa Rothman is not too happy with the new Pipeline Masters. He says, he is saying out loud what a lot are thinking.

1. The new format is competitors will draw lots to decide who is in what heat. Until the final, heats will be non-elimination. Surfers will surf multiple times with their top three wave scores determining their final score, with the top four surfers in the final. There will be no priority operating in heats.

Koa says, this is the format of the Da Hui Backdoor Shootout run by his family. They have copied the format without any acknowledgment.

2. Without the big dogs; Kelly, John, Gabriel, Italo, it is not the Masters.

3. Some of the surfers selected seem odd. One admitting he hadn’t surfed Pipe in 10 years and was surprised to be selected.

4. Judging criteria. from the WSL website - “Judging criteria and scoring will be a large shift from past versions of the Pipe Masters. In this new adaptation, judges will be looking through a different lens and placing an equal emphasis on turns, airs, and barrels. Vans' 60 handpicked surfers will not just be the elite barrel riders we've seen win this contest in years past, but also talented aerialists from across Hawaii and beyond.” Koa says, someone can sit out on the shoulder and go for airs and be equal to someone getting barrelled. This is Pipe. This seems odd.

wally's picture
wally's picture
wally Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 9:40am

I should have just put in the Koa video link. Which is here.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 9:57am

Geez, some real world problems there.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 3:45pm

What a whiny little fuckwit.

jamespeach's picture
jamespeach's picture
jamespeach Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 11:09am

Wow - poor boy
So basically I’m still doing it cause the money is good but I’m going to whinge - nice protest
And I guess if he says the winner of it isn’t a real pipe master - same goes for the winner of the shootout using the same format.
As said above - some real first world problems.
That was so hard to watch

Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213's picture
Matilda0213 Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 12:48pm

His brother is also commentating.....

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 4:14pm

Can see why crew are scratching their heads, but the comp has been Brand commodified for so long. I personally enjoy watching solid pipe and back door do it's it's thing but the whole commercial aspect of the place has eaten itself. Hawaiians should be governing their spot and keeping corporate entities in check.

Easy to say but far harder to implement. Money wins but not always for the right reasons. With all the hype Hawaii has always carried for travelling surfers and the problems it causes due to the limited commodity of waves at a premium. I hope the Hawaiians take some of their soul back if possible.

I really just watch and ignore the scene as an outsider but am looking forward to the women representing themselves as there is greater room for progression and they are happier about where they are at and the chances to surf provided.

Pipe and jaws are always additions to the pinnacles of the yearly surf calendar and Hawaiians should be proud and in control of them. Otherwise it's a capitalistic mess with ego, envy, and hate at the fore font of surfing. They live a good life there, but they are overrun and obviously frustrated at the current situation. Maybe the anserw is less comps and more charging. True pipe dosen't look like an air wave to me but I may be wrong. The comp or dissatisfaction at the explotation of competition for the soul benefit of a few is being expressed by someone local. Whether I or anyone else agrees or disagrees in how it is delivered. Vans and any other company profiting from the north shore or any other space of mass commodification should take note.

Hawaiians are a proud people from my understanding and it would be reckless to think otherwise. Many surf brands operate with discontent to the local scenes they function amongst. Maybe it's time surfers called themselves out and quit selling themselves short or is it all-ready to late. Best wishes to all Hawaiians and those competing, hope it pumps in a heavy fashion as true pipe does. Its an opportunity for those who can't get a wave normally to have a go whilst they got the chance. I hope they take it.

Spoke to satan over the 2way and he said "Once satan has the soul of a place it's almost impossible to get back". Satan also recommends bringing a blanket if you are stopping by. Due to the fact 2/3rds of the burners have been turned down due to the rising energy prices here and it has been a little cold and drafty of late. All the best rob and satan.

and for when it all gets too much

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Friday, 16 Dec 2022 at 8:47pm

While waiting & before the Lūʻau .....
here is a few crazy keen Irish dudes .... & Rory Gallagher

Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams's picture
Robwilliams Saturday, 17 Dec 2022 at 7:40pm

cheers bbbird that was a nice way to end the day

mattlock's picture
mattlock's picture
mattlock Saturday, 17 Dec 2022 at 8:52pm

Nice bbbird.
Rory is a long time favourite of mine but I hadn't seen that footage

bbbird's picture
bbbird's picture
bbbird Monday, 19 Dec 2022 at 10:19am

His nephew has put together a Rory channel for the fans.
He played & sang hard; full throttle, without a safety net