Further ahead and we’ll be tracking a potential south-wards moving coast-hugging low which is expected to form off the NSW or QLD coast later this weekend.
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There's nothing to recommend over the coming period until late next week.
Don’t expect much surf for the weekend, with cold and W’ly winds on offer and surf close to flat both days. A tiny wave Sat a’noon in the 1-1.5ft range may be surfable for chunky equipment.
We’ve got a nice chunky 1033 hPa High slow moving at very southerly latitude, roughly triangulated between Tasmania and the South Island. As well as a precursor SE fetch adjacent to the South Island it is now squeezing pressure gradients with a compact, but deep low, which is currently forming gale force fetches out of Cook Strait and just north of the North Island. The Cook Strait fetch will produce some fun waves for East Tasmania.
Today's large SE groundswell will ease over the weekend, with some weaker, smaller east swells to follow.
The Southern Ocean gyre is now well to the S and SE of the South Island, generating one last pulse of long period swell for our region.
The Southern Gyre then sends one more pulse of SE groundswell our way later in the week.
Sunday is a different story as storm force winds sweep past the state, bringing a S swell much larger than anything seen so far.
Sunday is a different story. The most powerful front in the series sweeps up past the state with severe gale to storm force winds sling-shotting around the parent low.
High pressure support along an elongated front and another deep low pressure gyre forming well South-east of the South Island super-charge a deep southern fetch Fri into Sat with an area of 20ft seas sling-shotting agressively North-east into the Tasman Sea.