Multiple large S swell pulses incoming this week
Eastern Tasmanian Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 6th)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- New small S swell Wed with W/SW-SW winds
- Moderate sized S swell for Thu/Fri with W/SW-SW winds
- Larger S swell next weekend with W/SW-SW winds
- More large S swell Mon/Tues next week
- S swell expected through most of next week
Small fun waves on Sat in the 2ft range, easing back Sun and into today with freshening NW to W winds. Lots of S swell ahead.
This week and next week (Jun 6 - 16)
We are now seeing a couple of intra-seasonal climate drivers having a strong influence on our synoptic pattern and subsequent swell regime. A strong node of the Long Wave Trough is steering fronts into the Tasman Sea while a negative phase of the SAM (Southern Annular Mode) is bringing the Southern Ocean storm track into a more northerly latitude, closer to the Australian continent and Tasman Sea. Both those factors will drive a series of strong cold fronts this week, with a step-ladder effect likely on swell pulses as each subsequent front works on an already charged sea state.
In the short run and S swell kicks into the 3ft range tomorrow with fresh SW winds. Through Wed stronger S swell builds as gales whip up past the East Coast. That will see local swell build into the 4-6ft range at S exposed breaks.
This swell rebuilds through Thurs as a fresh pulse of S swell fills in, lifting wave heights back to 6ft at S exposed breaks.
Into Fri and solid S swell from severe gales keeps surf elevated in the 4-6ft range with fresh SW to W winds.
Lots more S swell on the cards for this weekend, lifting up into the next size range through Sunday, as powerful fronts continue to pour through the Tasman Sea.
High pressure support along an elongated front and another deep low pressure gyre forming well South-east of the South Island super-charge a deep southern fetch Fri into Sat with an area of 20ft seas sling-shotting agressively North-east into the Tasman Sea.
Expect size in the 6ft range Sat with a really solid increase on Sunday lifting wave heights up into the 10-12ft range as severe gales and possibly storm force winds push adjacent to the East Coast.
Lots of size into the start of next week and really, strong S swell is expected through to at least mid next week, possibly later, as the complex low pressure gyre remains slow moving under New Zealand and further fronts push into the Tasman Sea pipe. We’ll finesse these evens as we get closer to them but Sundays large pulse is likely to extend into Mon at size- with surf in the 8-10ft range at S facing beaches, smaller elsewhere. Mod/fresh W to SW winds are expected Mon.
Size rebuilds through Tues, as another severe gale fetch pushes past Tas Mon/Tues, with surf in the 8ft range.
More S swell is expected through to the end of next week.
Check back Wed for details.