An endless supply of swells out of the east

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

South East Queensland and Northern New South Wales Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 1st January)

Best Days: Great waves most days. Sat will see a peak in E'ly tending E/SE groundswell, with a second E'ly swell due next Wed. Between this )and post-Wed) there'll be varying degrees of mid-range E/SE and SE swells, with generally good winds for the points. 

Recap: Strong S/SE swells have continued for the last two days, rebuilding to 5-6ft across exposed Northern NSW locations with smaller surf across SE Qld around 3-4ft at outer points. Winds have remained fresh, occasionally strong S/SE at times but there have been pockets of morning S/SW'ers. My arms are buggered from paddling. It does seem that we’re now on the backside of this swell event though; surfcam observations on the Gold Coast show smaller waves than earlier this morning, with much less consistency too (the current high tide isn’t helping). Though, buoy data doesn’t suggest anything conclusive - Tweed is steady, Byron is slightly down on late yesterday and Brisbane is also trending down (though this is probably related to an easing of local winds across the region, therefore contributing local swell to the data).

This weekend (January 2nd - 3rd)

The current S/SE swell will ease through this afternoon, overnight and into Saturday. But as we’ve been anticipating all week we have a new E’ly swell due to arrive overnight that’ll provide great waves across the weekend.

The source of this swell is a merger between a small Tasman low - responsible for our recent S/SE swells - and another tropical low near New Caledonia on Wednesday, which intensified on Thursday and developed a fresh band of easterly gales.

The broader system has tracked south-west, and at the same time the fetch has aligned more E/SE and then SE; though winds were broadly close to model expectations (I thought they may go higher).

This storm track means that we’re going to see an initial E’ly swell veer clockwise throughout Saturday (i.e. E/SE then SE), and this will have an impact on wave heights north of the border.

Fortunately, the coastal ridge - responsible for the windy conditions of late - will relax into the weekend so we’ll see much lighter airstream across the coast. And it'll remain out of the southern quadrant, so early SW tending S’ly then S/SE throughout the days are quite likely.

As for wave heights - Northern NSW will pick up the biggest waves with occasional 5-6ft sets through Saturday. They’ll be a little inconsistent at times, and there’ll be plenty of residual S/SE swell in the mix too (3-4ft). Expect smaller waves at protected locations, and an easing trend into Sunday morning from 3-5ft at exposed beaches, a little smaller into the afternoon

Across SE Qld, if you’re planning on surfing an inner point or very protected location, you’ll have to make the most of early Saturday as this is when we’ll see the most amount of east in the swell direction - as it veers E/SE then SE throughout the day, surf size will taper off at sheltered spots, though should remain strong at open beaches.

As for size north of the border, exposed beaches and some outer points should see 4-5ft sets throughout Saturday, with smaller 3-4ft waves across remaining beaches and points, and much smaller surf across inner points. Expect wave heights to ease by a foot or so across open beaches and outer points into Sunday - but still remain quite strong and worthwhile under a favourable local airstream - however more protected locations will see a larger size loss for the second half of the weekend.

Next week (January 4th onwards)

The long term outlook is still fantastic. TD05F has rapidly intensified into a Tropical Cyclone east of Fiji, and is in fact now Category 3 status (Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula). 

Ordinarily, tropical cyclones east of New Zealand rarely get me excited, but STC Ula has a couple of notable characteristics that should ensure excellent surf for the entire East Coast of Australia:

1. STC Ula is tracking slowly westward (and eventually W/SW), and is expected to maintain a slow movement in this direction - at strength - for some time, which is unusual. This will help to enhance wave heights, probably through the creation of a captured fetch. 

2. STC Ula has a broad supporting ridge stretching all the way south to New Zealand. No only is this helping to prime the ocean ahead of its passage (by activating the sea state, therefore requiring less energy to generate significant swells), it also helps to enhance the broader westward storm track and will also generate useful (if somewhat lower period) swell that’ll fill out the backside of the primary swell event. 

3. STC Ula will remain quite some distance from the mainland. Normally this lowers my expectations for surf locally, but because of the factors listed above it’s actually a positive as it means we’ll see regularly spaced, if somewhat inconsistent groundswell across the coast (closer systems produce much more consistent swells, but sometimes of varying quality due to the wide range in swell periods arriving concurrently). STC Ula’s large distance from the mainland also means we’ll stand a better chance of more favourable winds, as it won’t have any local effect (though, we may see tricky conditions thanks to another coastal trough - but that’s another story).

4. STC Ula’s position just south of Fiji is in an ideal spot for the entire East Coast - just inside the swell window but slightly north of SE Qld’s latitude, which means we should see a reasonably broad coverage of quality groundswell across the entire region (all the way to Southern NSW too). 

Just to backtrack for a moment - Monday is looking at residual, easing E/SE swell from the weekend and some mid range SE swell from the remnants of the system responsible for tomorrow’s swell, which is expected to meander about the Northern Tasman Sea over the weekend. This will mainly favour Northern NSW with fun surf in the 4ft range; surf size will be a little smaller across SE Qld (2-3ft, maybe some bigger bombs at swell magnets). 

In fact, this SE fetch is expected to strengthen early next week as a new ridge moves in from the south, broadening it and slightly increasing wind speeds, which should result in a kick to 4-5ft+ at south facing beaches in Northern NSW from late Monday thru’ Tuesday (smaller waves across the semi-exposed points, and sheltered locations). Winds will however become moderate to fresh from the E/SE, south of about Ballina, which may restrict options to the sheltered southern corners and points. 

North of about Ballina through to the Sunshine Coast, winds look they’ll be light and variable tending moderate onshore on Monday, with tricky winds expected on Tuesday as a coastal trough develops - but regardless we’re likely to see continuing favourable conditions for the points. The renewal of SE swell across Northern NSW late Monday probably won’t show across SE Qld until Tuesday, and only a minor increase is expected here (i.e. a little more consistency in the 3ft+ sets).

Very late Tuesday - and moreso into Wednesday - the leading edge of the new E’ly swell from STC Ula should start to appear. At this stage there’s still enough confidence to expect some solid sets across exposed coasts, anywhere between 4ft and 6ft, though there’ll be extremely long breaks between them.

Let me emphasise this once again: the bigger set waves will be VERY inconsistent - they'll be sourced from STC Ula itself, which whilst an amazingly strong system, is only small in diameter and a large distance from the coast. And STC Ula will have to pass through the Fijian archipelago over the coming days (see below), which - depending on exactly where it tracks - could have an impact on swell potential. 

So in general you'll probably be surfing a mix of supporting mid-range swells aorund 3-4ft. 

Then to pad out the last two days of the week, we’re looking at a slowly easing combo of E’ly groundswell, mid-range SE swell (from the Tasman fetch) and mid-range E’ly swell (from the supporting fetch south of STC Ula). 

In fact, the longer term outlook maintains some degree of reasonable E’ly airstream through our far eastern swell window through most of next week, which suggests there’ll be useful E’ly swell right through next weekend too. 

On Wednesday I also mentioned the chance for an ECL developing within the mid-week coastal trough. This broader pattern is still likely though an ECL probably won’t occur. Either way, in addition to the long range E’ly swell sources for the long term, it looks like there’ll be plenty of swell potential originating from the Tasman Sea as well.

Which means: waves pretty much every day. 

Bring it on! See you Monday. 

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 3:13pm

Gotta give this surfcam snapshot a run again. In years gone by this would have been almost magazine-worthy.

B.B.Blitz's picture
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B.B.Blitz Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 3:29pm

Damn that looks nice, still nothing up here on the Sunshine Coast.....zzzz

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 3:30pm

Let me emphasise this once again Haha. Did you surf today Ben?

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 3:47pm

Yep. Surfed the local point with one other bloke for 45 mins, then had the entire joint to myself for the next 45 mins (yes, that's right - when I left there were no surfers anywhere to be seen in the water, but a fair number of crew sitting and watching). The sweep was insane - paddling non stop for the entire session - but the waves were amazing if you could get one. 

tomjoad's picture
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tomjoad Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 5:17pm

pretty happy to read that even Thermal Ben battles that sweep... I think I had a similar spot to yours, but my arms were dead after 45 mins and I was still sliding down the point despite constant paddle! still fun but

Blair Cochran's picture
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Blair Cochran Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 4:20pm

Exciting times! Thanks for all your work Ben and the rest of the swellnet team. Much appreciated. All the best for 2016 everyone. Hope you all get your share.

tomjoad's picture
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tomjoad Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 5:35pm

Yep - my thoughts exactly - plus one

Anthony 01's picture
Anthony 01's picture
Anthony 01 Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 5:51pm

So i was looking at this website (the link) and it says snapper is offshore in SE wind, isn't it SW? Doesn't look reliable, but i gotta stay at Surfers next week where the surf is terrible and don't want to drive all the way to snapper if its not right... Especially with the crowds.

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Snapper-Rocks/forecasts/latest/six_day

wellymon's picture
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wellymon Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 7:08pm

Catch a bus Anthony01, it's pretty easy and cheap with lots of room for your surf board.
Just have respect and stand up for elderly people who have no seat and thank the bus driver for the ride once disembarking.

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 8:27pm

Sweeps been insane along the entire stretch of coast. I hate S/SE swells.

Give me an E'ly swell any day of the week!!!

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 8:36pm

Hey guys just watched surf report on sunny coast news no mention of a peak tomorrow even said swell easing never normally listen to it just follow what Ben has to say but it's a bit worrying

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 5:58am

You mean the TV bloke on Channel 7, Paul Burt?

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 9:30am

No Ben it was the local sunny coast guy, doesn't matter they were wrong don't know what I was thinking
Plenty of swell here this morning and clean but it's dead straight so no options but the crazy points .
Give me the beach any day

donweather's picture
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donweather Friday, 1 Jan 2016 at 8:47pm

Fiji Met appear to have severely undercooked Ula in terms of intensity/central pressure.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 5:55am

Burleigh looking solid, glassy and punchy this morning. How's the bowl up in the cove!


No shortage of size at Moffats either.



mitchvg's picture
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mitchvg Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 7:01am

Hope Parkie's out there now fark!

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 7:32am

Ben your dawn report states "Dawn report: Swell direction has swung more E'ly this morning, though there's still a small underlying S/SE swell in the mix."

Byron buoy is showing the exact opposite ie dominant swell still being the SE whilst the E swell is smaller?

But I take your point looking at those pics above. Perhaps Byron buoy is running a tad late with its display.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 7:49am

I'm really not confident with any of the MHL buoy data right now. They changed a few things a few months ago and I'm certain it's outputting odd data from time to time.

In any case, the Brisbane buoy is the most exposed in SE Qld (the others being sheltered enough attenuate swell directions from the S) and it's obvious that there's been a shift in the primary swell direction. Though, this also occurred as local winds eased significantly (i.e. check Cape Moreton AWS) so there is certainly a lot less short range S/SE swell in the mix this morning.

But the surfcams really show the direction being more east, particularly Burleigh and Moffats where it's easier to assess the swell angle (than D'Bah, Snapper or Greenmount).

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:05am

Straight E. good as it gets.

brevil's picture
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brevil Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:10am

the pass was fun before the crowd arrived at 7am.
really consistant

donweather's picture
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donweather Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:27am

JWTC severely downgraded ULAs intensity. :(

silentp's picture
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silentp Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 10:07am

Noosa skunked, hard to get your head around why its only small up here,?

saltman's picture
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saltman Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:16am

Not really
Theres too much south in the swell direction. Needs to be very large and long period if a SE swell is to produce anything on the inside points

B.B.Blitz's picture
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B.B.Blitz Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:48am

Yeah can't work it out, normally at least be something at Ti tree, maybe all the southerly sweep is pushing it past?Getting really frustrated hearing about all the great waves and yet to surf this week!

saltman's picture
saltman's picture
saltman Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:17am

There would have been something interestion in the outer bay and point

silentp's picture
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silentp Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 12:12pm

I was in nationals carpark 3:30 this morning, looked very underwhelming, watched for about 20 minutes and saw two 1ft "sets"

Wasnt stopping plenty of wave hungry punters heading to outer bays though...not my idea of a surf scrapping it out for slim pickings

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:30am

Deffo a few sneaker 6-8ft sets here

AndyM's picture
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AndyM Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 6:00pm

Agreed mate, the rogue ones look every bit of 8ft when they land on your head!

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:49am

Pumping barrels over on the headland :) 6ft on the sets the sand bank is so good.

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 12:27pm

Sunny coast surfers left out again

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 12:47pm

The Moffs surfcam stills suggest otherwise.

Umunga's picture
Umunga's picture
Umunga Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 1:52pm

Yep totally agree was there 5.30 this morning, lots of holiday makers , long boards and SUP's flying around every where.
Heaps of swell a bit straight and poor tide limiting options.

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 12:53pm

Local point was packed but pumping. Surfed another joint on my own, eventually joined by a pair of bodyboarders, and scored some great waves. I'd be lying if I said there were 6ft sets, but it was a strong 4-5ft and the lines were standing up hundreds of metres offshore (thanks to the extra wavelength/period) which gave a pretty decent amount of notice as to their arrival. Swell direction was way more east than yesterday too. And most notably - almost no sweep at all. Complete opposite to yesterday where it was running like a river.

mugofsunshine's picture
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mugofsunshine Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 1:18pm

Can't believe Sunny Coasters moaning about lack of waves. Surfed a beach this morning plenty overhead and clean as, sweep was a bitch though. Bays at Coolum looked pretty lined up on my way home too.

Wish the SSE swell would ease off some more so I could sit on the same peak!

alsurf's picture
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alsurf Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 1:54pm

How have the winds been south of the border?

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 1:56pm

Mostly straight S all week tending s/SE in the arvo, side shore at the Point I surf. Straight offshore this morning.

Anthony 01's picture
Anthony 01's picture
Anthony 01 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 2:16pm

Snapper this morning was on fire but the crowds are stupid even at sunrise at 4:45 its packed. What day do you think it'll be good next week? The wind looks to South...

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 3:17pm

Solid 3ft with odd bigger one here. Mostly too straight on the beachies but got a couple of decent barrels that ran through on the low tide. Crowds a shock to the system after 10 days in Fiji with no more than 6 people out.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 7:25pm

on sober reflection I think I frothed the egg a bit hard in the omellete this morning.

4-6ft with heaps of 6footers and a couple of bigger bombs. Dropped off quickly after lunch.
Checked a local point late arvo, looked really fun, big bait ball and feeding frenzy right in the break. No-one out. Me and a mate ummed and ahhed and went back to the more crowded option.

heebgeeb's picture
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heebgeeb Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 8:45pm

Lower Clarence was solid this morning, clean too

caml's picture
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caml Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 10:44pm

Great buoy readings I see

penmister's picture
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penmister Saturday, 2 Jan 2016 at 11:34pm

Evans head be sweet ova head and wouldn't even have to duck dive...

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:32am

Smaller today but still so perfect at Burleigh!




Looks like the Sunny Coast woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning.. lots of leftover lumpiness from overnight SE winds. Still around 3ft though.


thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:34am

Snapper looking nice too. Not a patch on yesterday though!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:30am

fucking blew it not taking the solo sesh in the bait ball yesterday- must be a hundred out this morning; most crowded I've ever seen this spot.
Pass.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 11:42am

You've still got all your limbs though....

thermalben's picture
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thermalben Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 2:05pm

Had a couple of solo (!) sessions today, unreal waves but plenty of marine life.

linez's picture
linez's picture
linez Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 2:45pm

You're a braver man than me Ben, assuming you're talking about the Tweed Coast :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 4:50pm

Yep on the Tweed. Yesterday was fine under the bright sunshine but today was def a little spookier thanks to the cloudy overcast conditions... lots of marine life passing through the lineup too - a couple of questionable shapes but they seemed to be in transit.

Cylinders85's picture
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Cylinders85 Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 3:02pm

I had a good session yesterday. And iam sore as didn't even bother today.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 4:15pm

Made the trip north. Yesterday morning and midday was cooking 3-4ft point surf. No barrels just fast down the line carve walls. Swell died mid-arvo and was on the way out late. 

Went the dawny and only 5 or so of us out for 45 then crowd got to 100 or so but one section was left pretty well unattended and was the pick all day. 4 surfs plus two more today on the back beaches and a leftover and slow 2ft+ on the point. Stoked!!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 5:17pm

In QLD Craig?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 5:26pm

Nah Kempsey region. Was best some of the locals seen in a coupla years. 

roubydouby's picture
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roubydouby Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:40pm

I was in that regikn too craig. Sat morn was aaaamazing. Stopped in at cresent sat evening to get some grog and took a peek. Point was pumping!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 8:31pm

And that was when the swell had dropped by heaps!

roubydouby's picture
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roubydouby Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:18pm

Far out - would love to score that place cracking at some size.
Even Sun looked fun out there.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:20pm

Today's photo is from Sunday, when swell had halved!

Wish I went and got a shot up there Saturday when it was cooking, but too busy surfing haha!

roubydouby's picture
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roubydouby Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:32pm

Hey how was the crowd on saturday?

Craig's picture
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Craig Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 12:34pm

I got up at 5am, surfed for 45 minutes with only 4-5 others!!!

Got out around 8am and was packed, I think about 100 at once stage, but one section was firing all day with hardly anyone on it, that's where I surfed. No issues at all getting waves, had too many in the end really, exhausted, haha.

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 5:54pm

If this ain't too much detail....Nth or Sth of crescent ?

Craig's picture
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Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:17pm

Crescent proper haha

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:21pm

No shame in that.

Great fun.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:52pm

No, no shame at all was so sick. Some of the best pointbreak surf I've had! Prob pick of the region coming from Sydney and not wanting to go further. 

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:01pm

I'd say you're a lucky man , but it seems like you score too often to put it down to just luck.

Fortune favours the brave.

Carpe Diem.

All those who wander are not lost.

Did I go too far with the last one ?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:07pm

Bit of both there!

Best perk of this job is knowing nearly every setup along the coast and it's best conditions. Also if it's not as expected at break 1, knowing straight away where to go next instead of wasting time :)

This and just putting in the effort to get out of town each weekend. 

Blowin's picture
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Blowin Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:14pm

That home town inertia is a killer to most surf trips. Glad someone is scoring.

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:12pm

Gee, BOM going for very different wind forecasts compared to the models leading up to that trough/low moving off the coast mid week.

http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/forecasts/gold-coast-waters.shtml

No mention of the N/NE infeed?

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 6:14pm

Wow, Lau islands in Fiji got smashed by TC Ula. Gusts over 250km/hr recorded there earlier today!!!

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 7:06pm

looks like JTWC were a bit premmy with their calls that Ula was weakening.

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 8:08pm

Yup and they appear to be currently under calling her strength too with only 90knts and yet real obs clearly showing greater than that.

donweather's picture
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donweather Sunday, 3 Jan 2016 at 8:09pm

What's your thoughts on swell from her Steve? My numbers are coming up different to the models.

freeride76's picture
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freeride76 Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 9:09am

mystery bag. V. compact system meandering all over the shop. Seems to be confounding models at every turn.

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 2:04pm

This trough/low off the coast could spoil the parade on this next up and coming swell from TC Ula. Offshore N/NE fetch looks to be reasonable which will generate a N/NE windswell of it's own. A 6 sec N/NE windswell and a 13-15 sec E/NE groundswell DO NOT mix!!!!

alsurf's picture
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alsurf Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 2:46pm

Where are you getting the n/Ne fetch of the coast . Is it happening currently as I can't see it on any maps.

alsurf's picture
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alsurf Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 3:00pm

Sorry don wasn't looking at latest access r
Hopefully not enough strength to refract back to the coast? Re n/Ne wind swell

donweather's picture
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donweather Monday, 4 Jan 2016 at 5:38pm

Have a look at Tuesday afternoon.

http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/wind.shtml?location=qld2&tz=AEDT

No refraction required....the fetch is aimed directly at SE QLD!!!!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 10 Jan 2016 at 11:48am

TC Ula has got stronger and on route to flog Vanuatu

the chase's picture
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the chase Sunday, 10 Jan 2016 at 12:27pm

Just keeps hanging around.