In addition another sub-tropical low is expected to form over the weekend, this time off the QLD coast before drifting off towards the east and reconsolidating near the North Island.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/08/06/easing-e-swells
freeride76
Wednesday, 6 August 2025
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/08/04/large-e-swells
freeride76
Monday, 4 August 2025
Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) pass shows a low in the Northern Tasman with SE gales proximate to the NSW Coast and a long, broad fetch of E’ly gales extending from the Tasman out to a position north of the North Island.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/08/01/intense-sub
freeride76
Friday, 1 August 2025
If anything that eastwards movement looks slower than modelled on Wed so large surf will persist at elevated levels for longer.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/30/extended-large
freeride76
Wednesday, 30 July 2025
That will lead to elevated surf from the SE-E for most of next week with just a very slow, gradual tapering off as the fetch slowly weakens while remaining basically semi-stationary.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/28/bit-and-pieces
freeride76
Monday, 28 July 2025
There’s broad model agreement now for a low to form off the sub-tropical coast and merge with a Coral Sea low pressure centre, deepening explosively through Sat and into Sun.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/25/spell-small-surf
freeride76
Friday, 25 July 2025
Inshore we’ll see those winds between 10-15 kts through the morning tending stronger N’ly through the day and generating small NE windswells for the MNC up to Yamba, not much further north of there.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/23/mix-swells-ahead
freeride76
Wednesday, 23 July 2025
During this time frame a retreating but broad and long trade fetch will be supplying some background E’ly pulses.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/21/ely-swell
freeride76
Monday, 21 July 2025
Unfortunately, compared to Fridays expectations the interplay between these two systems is weaker, with a more constrained fetch of lower windspeeds that drifts away quicker than modelled on Friday. That will result in smaller east quadrant swell this week, relative to Fridays expectations.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/18/extended-ely
freeride76
Friday, 18 July 2025
There’s still some model divergence later next week but for now we’ve got reasonable confidence a broad fetch will develop through the Northern Tasman as high pressure moves into the Tasman and supplies an anchor for the low.
/reports/forecaster-notes/south-east-queensland-northern-new-south-wales/2025/07/16/out-season-east
freeride76
Wednesday, 16 July 2025
We'll see plenty of surf surf from this system initially but there is broad model agreement we’ll see this low deepen and develop into a more powerful system mid/late next week as it drifts into a position north of the North Island. Best case scenario is a quality E’ly groundswell event from this system.
