Wednesday, 18 October 2023

The synoptic set-up looks quite unseasonal at the moment with a 1031 hPa high drifting over NSW and a 1007 hPa low slow moving in the Tasman west of the North Island. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) passes show broad fetch of mostly strong S-S/SE winds with some embedded low end gales reasonably well aimed for East coast swell production. 

Monday, 16 October 2023

A strong front and embedded trough of low pressure are currently located just off the Gippsland Coast, expected too move NE into the Tasman and driving a strong/ near gale force S’ly flow up the NSW Coast today, reaching the QLD in the wee hours of Tuesday. There’ll be an initial burst of S swell associated with the proximate fetch, with some better quality SE-E/SE swell from a secondary intensification of the low as it becomes slow moving near New Zealand.

Friday, 13 October 2023

We’ve got more clarity on the situation next week now as a lingering trough line from the NSW South Coast down to Gippsland is expected to deepen in response to a front and form a surface low in the Tasman Sea, likely later Mon.

Wednesday, 11 October 2023

Moderate strength high pressure (1025 hPa) is drifting NE into the Tasman with a strong polar storm well SW of NZ exiting the swell window. That should see a settled short term before another complex trough and frontal system pushes north along the coast tomorrow with a stiff SW-S change. More rapid wind changes into and over the weekend under a very mobile, troughy pattern with some potential next week for a surface low to form in one of the trough lines.

Monday, 9 October 2023

The early arrival of today’s south swell means the short term schedule has been brought forward

Friday, 6 October 2023

A series of secondary southerly swells will fill in overnight, replacing today's energy and maintaining...

Wednesday, 4 October 2023

Today's building short range NE swell will reach a peak during the middle of the night.

Monday, 2 October 2023

Main feature on the synoptic charts is a strengthening N'ly fetch adjacent the NSW coast, between a Tasman high and an approaching front through the Bight.

Friday, 29 September 2023

We’ve got a strong, expansive front passing through the Tasman at present will which supply pulses of S swell over the coming days. High pressure over NSW is moving NE into the Tasman, with a N’ly flow developing. That N'ly flow will really intensify next week with some juicy NE windswell resulting.

Wednesday, 27 September 2023

High cells are now tending to move NE as they enter the Tasman, bringing N’ly episodes which were rare through our triple La Niña but are becoming common as we enter El Niño proper. Small, combination swells and some light wind periods pad out the rest of the week with a more entrenched N’ly episode next week offering potential for a much juicier NE swell.