Friday, 19 January 2024

A compact low is tracking SE away from Tasmania with a nice slingshot fetch in the process of entering the Tasman adjacent to the Apple Isle. A retrograding fetch in the South Pacific is currently active and expected to send some fun surf out way over the weekend.

Wednesday, 17 January 2024

In the South Pacific we have a retrograding trough of low pressure along a tradewind band and finally, the Northern Australian Monsoon (NAM) is in full swing and a tropical low is expected to bud off the end of the monsoon trough into and over the weekend, with a reasonable likelihood of cyclogenesis into next week.

Monday, 15 January 2024

Very active pattern to start the week with a large high (1029hPa) moving E of Tasmania with a SE surge enhanced by a trough along the leading edge of the high, and active Monsoon Trough extending in to the Coral Sea and an approaching complex low well to the SW of Tasmania. All these features are potential sources of surf in the short to medium term. 

Friday, 12 January 2024

The southwards protusion of winds from a high and retrograding trough will generate fun sized E’ly swells.

Wednesday, 10 January 2024

The compact low near Tasmania is now skipping away to the SE with a large high SE of the South Island (1034 hPa) interacting with a broad low pressure trough in the South Pacific which will supply E’ly quadrant swell in the near term as the low pressure trough retrogrades back towards the east coast.

Monday, 8 January 2024

East swells will favour the sub-tropics for size, but we’ll see swell trains from this source filter down into temperate NSW. Longer term is starting to look very active as well.

Friday, 5 January 2024

Quite a healthy looking N-NE fetch extending along the NSW coast to start next week - favouring Central/Southern NSW as is typical.

Wednesday, 3 January 2024

A trough moving north from a position east of Tasmania brings a vigorous S’ly change tomorrow extending into Fri before the summer pattern slowly resets over the weekend. Any large or moderate swell generating features have disappeared from the charts, alas.

Monday, 1 January 2024

Not much action ahead for the short run in the f/cast region. Mod/fresh NE winds through Tues and Wed across temperate NSW with lighter N-NW winds inshore early. Local NE winds proximate to the coast and E’ly winds in the Northern Tasman will supply a typical Summer mix of NE and E/NE short period swells.

Friday, 29 December 2023

Models are divergent as to the fate of the trough with GFS suggesting a deepening of the system as it moves northwards, potentially forming a closed surface low and generating plenty of S/SE-SE swell Fri and into next weekend.