Pumping surf this week, becoming more user friendly for the second half as deep Tasman low dissipates
Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon 31st Mar)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Surf likely peaking Tues with L-XL S-S/SE swells from Tasman low- mod/fresh SW winds tending S’ly and easing in the a’noon
- Pumping surf Wed with light offshore winds and plenty of size from the S-S/SE, easing through the a’noon
- Long range ice shelf S/SE groundswell into the mix Wed, holding Thurs and easing Fri
- Another good day likely Thurs with good winds and a mix of S and S/SE swells
- Easing Fri with good winds and fun waves at S facing beaches
- Small Sat with offshore winds
- New pulse of S swell Sun with offshore winds
- More S swell pulses likely early next week as fronts push into Tasman- check back Wed for latest updates
Recap
Very dynamic weekend which started small on Sat morning. NE swell built through the day and the a’noon supplied very fun 3-4ft surf with winds swinging light offshore as the trough moved offshore. Fun NE swell with offshore winds for most on Sun morning, although freshening SW winds started to affect open S facing stretches as a low deepened off the Illawarra. This deepening low produced a very rapid rise in new E/SE swell late morning/lunch-time with some spots reaching 8ft+ before easing back again in the a'noon. A few spots handled the size producing a memorable Sun. Size has levelled off in the 6-8ft range this morning with more S angled swell with SW winds offering clean surf at semi-protected locations. More large swell is incoming.
Fun waves from the NE Sun morning
Gave way to rapidly building S swells by lunch-time
This week (Mar 31-Apr 4)
We have a powerful swell generating pattern in place with a deep low (993hPa) in the Tasman, supported by a large high (1033hPa) well top the south of the Bight. The intense pressure gradient between these two systems is producing gales to low-end storm force winds adjacent to the Illawarra coast, with a broader fetch of SE strong winds located further south. These winds will coalesce later today into a more organised fetch of S-SE gales as the system slowly tracks southwards then S/SE. As a result we’ll see elevated wave heights from the S-S/SE right into mid-week, augmented by some long range S/SE groundswell from another ice shelf fetch in the Ross Sea region adjacent to Antarctica.
In the short run we’ll see large surf through tomorrow, likely building in size through the day as we see the benefit of the gales organising around the low today and swell periods jump up a notch. Expect surf across S exposed breaks in the 8 occ. 10ft range with potential for bigger 10-12ft sets at bommies and deepwater adjacent reefs. Still windy with W-SW winds early, tending mod SW and likely clocking around S’ly later in the day, although we should see a moderating trend after school pickup.
Still sizey on Wed but coming down a little from the peak. Bigger boards likely still needed with sets in the 6 occ. 8ft range early, slowly winding back through the day. Winds look great. Light offshores for the morning, tending to light a’noon NE seabreezes. Wednesday looks special. Just as an add on- there should be some super long period S/SE swell showing late in the day (occ. 3ft set) from the ice shelf fetch but it’s unlikely to stand out against the much stronger Tasman Sea swells- just in case you notice some extra long lines.
Thursday looks a better bet for that swell. The Tasman Sea swell will be waning, but still offering up 4-5ft sets, slowly easing. Long period S/SE swell adds in inconsistent 3-4ft sets. With light winds on offer it looks another really good day for surf. Light land breezes should persist right through mid-late morning under weak pressure gradients, tending to light a’noon E’ly breezes.
Friday looks like a really nice mop-up day with a mix of long range S/SE and easing Tasman sea swells still offering a 3 occ. 4ft set early, dropping below 2-3ft through the a’noon. Winds should be mint again with light offshores through the morning and a’noon seabreezes. A great end to a pumping week of waves.
This weekend (Apr 5-6)
The weekend should see the start of a series of frontal progressions pushing into the Tasman.
Not much surf for Sat with small S’ly leftovers to 2ft or so, with offshore winds as a front pushes through Bass Strait and NE up towards Central NSW. A late kick in new S swell can’t be ruled out, but we’ll see how the timing looks through the week.
Certainly by Sun there should be a new pulse of mid-range S swell in the water, likely in the 3-5ft range at S facing beaches, with bigger surf on the Hunter. Winds look OK too, with a high quickly moving NE and another front seeing winds shift offshore W to NW again. We’ll finesse that on Wed.
Next week (Apr 7 onwards)
Strong fronts pushing into the Tasman early next week will see more moderate S swell pulses at least through the first half of next week. Easing swells Mon, back up Tues and easing Wed at this stage. Expect revisions in size and timing but looks like definitive seasonal change has finally arrived. We may see another low develop in the Tasman later next week. Check back Wed to see how that prospect is shaping up.
Seeya then.
Comments
Years ago I learnt not to take the early stages of a developing low for granted. Not sure what year it was, doesn't matter anyway, but the forecast was for a low to form off the NSW south coast, much as we're seeing now, with all indicators pointing to an acute south swell from winds off its south-west flank. Had 24 hrs or so before that'd eventuate.
Woke expecting short-range south swell to build through the day, but instead the sun rose over seriously big E/SE lines that came from who-knows-where? I raced to get a board from a mate's place and from his verandah breaking waves were visible - a rare sight.
Surfed what was then my local pointbreak all morning - good chance Evosurfer would've been out there - under this surprise swell. It tapered after lunch before the wind switched hard south and the expected south swell began to build.
Ever since then I've always kept an eye on troughs moving offshore, even minor ones with no significant swell expected, knowing they can deepen unpredictably and when they do, in-feeding winds off the other side of the system create swell that's often short-lived but hits more square than the coming south swell.
Think that's what happened yesterday when solid E/SE lines began wrapping into the coast. Not acutely south as the WAMs have for later today and tomorrow, and very user friendly for a wide range of reefs.
By the evening session the swell from that direction was already visibly tapering, and through still present early this morning it felt like the pure south swell would shortly be the predominant swell.
Stu, the low formed higher up than forecast, more off the Cennie Coast than Sydney, and stayed hovering off Illawarra/Sydney much longer than forecast. Consequence, more east direction, longer period of quiet winds Friday and Saturday and much more rain on Sunday than expected.
Unfortunate as my plans were based around it spinning off quickly to the south east and parking itself there.
Not quite. It formed further north but if you looked at the spectra through Sunday you'd have seen significant energy coming from even the E/NE. There's simply no way that was created by winds off its south-west flank.
Not really even speculation; I watched it all on ASCAT.
Yeah the E/NE swell was from the infeed ahead of the trough moving offshore and forming the low.
Hey Craig this low in the Tasman at the moment , was part of Alfred?? Went inland drifted south then met up and cold front?formed the low ..is that right? If so Jesus what journey
Not really mate. Alfred drifted south and dissipated.
This was an inland offshoot from the monsoon trough which drifted down from the tropics and then formed a low as it exited the coast.
Finally waves. Yahoo
Autumn delivers again.
Fark!!
Fark alright. Geez it is big in the Shire. A mess, but huge. Hopefully some banks to follow.
Can't recall seeing a fetch like that in such close proximity to the East Coast.
oh really.
Here we go
Some very big waves at the local. Only a few crew onto it, many happy to hop the insiders and take a run through No Man's but one or two surfers on long equipment toying with the outside ledges. Completely ridable 12ft sets, thick as all get out, just immense walls of water for the East Coast, and a horrible place to be caught out of position.
Love seeing the ocean on days like this.
saw you (i think) on a sick racetrack through no man's with a kind of tube/kind of close out ender. the kicker was that you popped up about 50m away from where you jumped off haha. heavy water this morning
Yeah that was my first wave. Was just going to get one then come in and go to work (g'day Ben!)
I came in after that but saw how good it was so darted back out for a few. Session ended with (another) legrope malfunction and a big swim.
You get out there?
unreal first wave! huge bummer about a third (?) leggie issue but i suppose good to know you're fit enough to survive 12 feet of maelstrom haha.
not for me this morning - double game of soccer last night had me feeling weak and tbh i am quietly happy i had that excuse to bow out of this morning's chaos - probably well beyond my comfort limit. i'll be among the crowd tomorrow though!
Great stuff and read @stu. Good on you mate. Yew!
Saw a set on the South Maroubra cam this morning and saw some crazy things happening out off that headland. Wasn't sure if it ever did that...maybe not!
Seen waves break from spots I have never seen before on a South swell down here. I have seen them break at those spots on massive ENE, E swells but not a South swell.
Look at the data, Parko. 5 metres at 14 seconds from 110 degrees. It's not that far off east. Def not an acute south swell.
Incredible direction for the size.
Yeah Stu, unbelievable those stats, usually its way more South for that size. I Live near a South East facing beach, so its pretty much a direct hit on that angle.
Been working all day, but went down to the local to see long lines of 5 x overhead bombs and a bommie 2km out to sea, I have never seen break. I think it may have broke in the June 2016 swell but I moved down here in August that year haha.
Might try out a reliable semi sheltered spot on the huge swells this evening. Surfed it last night at 6-8ft it might be a bit bigger today. I will leave the 12 ft plus stuff for you, haha
Edit saw the post re Belza maxing, who would have thought?
Amazing ASCAT reading from half an hour ago (11:30AM).
Cyclonic!
Why is it missing some bits in white there?
The data comes from a low orbit satellite, the nature of which means it misses some of the Earth's surface.
It's often a frustrating graph, can miss the main part of a storm by a whisker, but this time it caught it flush. Barbs point the direction of the wind, colour is strength, so there's 50 knot+ winds - which is storm force, or Force 10 if you like drama - spraying the coast from the Illawarra north.
Thanks. I was gonna try for an after work paddle but after seeing all this I think even the bay at Bellza will be maxing.
can confirm that it is
Yeah I’m here now, this is crazy there are waves breaking out in between the boat ramp and the pool but like 500 m out to sea. I have never seen this
Queeny Bombie has some Size
and Wind
Can we get a Deadmans Utube Live Stream going
The bathing pool in front of the hotel at south Bondi is getting hammered.
Stay safe Sydney
This has to be as big as it gets, 15ft?! Huge!
There are some jaw-dropping sets hitting the Illawarra coast right now. Too big for anywhere that I saw. I went up the scarp to look down on the coast and the elevated view shows the energy unloading out on the deep reefs - everything inside is a mess.
Came back down and pulled into Sandon carpark where surfers and every other type of person are rubbernecking the spectacle. Great energy.
Saw Garry Birdsall rock up. Now there's a fella with a history: Garry saw the 1956 US Olympic team unveil their Malibu boards, became the first shaper in the Gong, was on the cover of The Atlantics 'Bombora' charging at Cronulla Point, moved to NZ, moved to Hawaii, shaped everywhere, started companies, came back to the Gong in the 70s to surf and paint.
So the fella has seen a lot...
"What do you reckon, Gaz," I asked. "Have you seen bigger?"
"Maybe," he thought out loud, "but only from that direction" - he was pointing north and I had to assume he meant a rare cyclone swell. I can recall one or two monster NE swells myself, though not for a long time.
"I've never seen it this big from the east or south."
It's a swell to remember.
I’m friends with his son also called Gary, Legend!
1.78m High Tide at Midnight........Collaroy Wall Test
This is insane to watch 12+ft maybe bigger..sets breaking off the reef . Only seen once in 12years ..it’s incredible
And Terrigal is still only 2 foot…… ha
3ft on the sets at terrigal hahaha, 500m up north 12ft
Ha, correct. I shouldn’t put shit on it, it can get ok banks every once in a while, and the haven was pretty solid
I watched the bay/ruins in terrigal this afternoon was absolutely bombing.. biggest in years..
Reefs at Manly looking OK!
15 foot lefts way out off Shark Island:
one crazy/brave dude paddling out at North Bondi now.
He's gone! Didn't last long.
2 Paddled out Nth Bondi.....
Sth Bondi looking like Waimea .
A couple of takers just jumped in at Cronulla point. Didn't stay on the screen for long
Coupla sick drops just went down at Ben Buckler!
How's those mutant ones just out beyond the takeoff zone. Looks huge!
2 Charging out Nth Bondi ATM
-------------------
Edit: Just came in.
Changed up the attack this arvo. Took the guns out of the car, put the softboards in.
With my two younger sons we surfed a few kms from the open ocean.
3ft high x 500m long.
Just out of interest did you head North or south of your gaff?
Lord Howe is in the Firing Line Eh .
I have a feeling the morning session will be a little bigger than forecast?
Ha ha...yeah. I didn't see it late but heard there were four surfers out on dark.
So it'll be doable.
Today was epic!!!
Some great waves without actually surfing Mother Nature( Huey ) definitely turned it on
Some epic shots from South of the Bridge
Fk'n hell !!!!
That's a hell of a low!
Nut up and carry a gun boys, a big gun. A rhino chaser. An Elephant gun. And good luck!
Fark.
Fark me.
Epic!
I never knew there was a Waimea in Sydney that broke the opposite way.
Thats the wave I saw on the cams!
Mental.
Reckon this morning's scene at the local would've been replayed on many headlands this morning. Headlights lighting up the carpark, shapes materialising out of the blackness, groups huddled under the Norfolks trying to ascertain size through the predawn dark. Lots of nervous chatter. Board size. Swell period. Wind strength.
An all-too-rare set of factors made it a very special morning in the water. Lots and lots to process.
get any good ones, stu? looked like the outer shelf was the pick and not a lot wrapped inside
Only got one worthy wave. Would've liked to have been on a different board.
Definitely the outer shelf though it felt like you couldn't be out far enough. I got picked off twice, one of them a horrorshow hold-down, then read the tea leaves and came in.
What Board did you Ride ?
6'8" Stretch.
Jeezus Heroic Effort. . .10 Inches Missing .
is it just me or did deadmans not look as nuts as a) it usually does and/or b) other spots around? that bondi pic is nuts and there's a couple photos from south that look like it was a bit gnarlier. is there any footage of deadies in the arvo?
Watched Deadmans yesterday for an hour (4.30 - 5.30pm) and it was not very good. Tide too low and swell not getting in as well as you would expect considering the direction and period. I suspect the dead low tide was not allowing swell to get in so well.
thanks for the report, man! :)
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-04-02/swells-king-tide-sydney-coast-bon...
Wow, this is Interesting....