The dominant player is a massive high moving through the Bight and expected to drift over and eastwards of Tasmania tomorrow to occupy the Tasman for most of the week.
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/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/18/another-ely-episode-ahead-rain-onshores
freeride76
Monday, 18 August 2025
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/15/small-blend-over-the-weekend-unstable
freeride76
Friday, 15 August 2025
Back to looking dynamic next week. The crux of it is another very strong high moving at Tasmanian latitudes early next week. That will be the anvil for any hammer that forms next week.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/13/surf-the-small-side-conditions-look-good
freeride76
Wednesday, 13 August 2025
The trough forms a broad surface low that briefly flares up as it drifts towards the North Island and interacts with a more tropical derived low.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/11/troughy-pattern-continues-low-pressure
freeride76
Monday, 11 August 2025
Once again, we’re in a position of enhanced instability in the Tasman and Coral Seas with models really struggling to resolve the troughiness.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/08/fading-east-swells-dicey-winds
thermalben
Friday, 8 August 2025
The large east swell will continue to ease as conditions remain less than ideal.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/06/slow-easing-in-e-swell-winds-shifting
freeride76
Wednesday, 6 August 2025
No great change to the f/cast for the week. The slowly retreating fetch is continuing to send strong E swells with just slow easing trend in play.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/04/clean-and-big-short-term-slow-easing
freeride76
Monday, 4 August 2025
Current ASCAT (satellite wind speed) pass shows a low in the Northern Tasman with SE gales proximate to the NSW Coast and a long, broad fetch of E’ly gales extending from the Tasman out to a position north of the North Island.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/08/01/pumping-e-swell-days-next-week-improving
freeride76
Friday, 1 August 2025
If anything that eastwards movement looks slower than modelled on Wed so large surf will persist at elevated levels for longer.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/07/30/extended-large-ely-swell-event-intense
freeride76
Wednesday, 30 July 2025
E’ly gales in a broad fetch remain into the new week with a massive high new New Zealand (1042hPa) acting as supporting cradle for the Tasman low which will be drifting eastwards to a slot north of the North Island.
/reports/forecaster-notes/sydney-hunter-illawarra/2025/07/28/unstable-week-ahead-dynamic-weekend
freeride76
Monday, 28 July 2025
Over the weekend there’s now growing agreement on a coastal low (possibly some variant of an ECL) to form off the NENSW or SEQLD coast and intensify as it moves into the Tasman, with potential for severe weather and sizey swells.
