A trough line connected to the low remains angled SW/NE in the Tasman with a N-N/NE infeed along the trough line. With the movement of the low into the coast, winds on the southern flank are now out of the swell window so we’ll be relying on the NE infeed into the trough and potential small lows forming in the trough line for swells in the short term once the current S/SE swell fades out.
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A lingering coastal trough is expected to slowly evolve into a closed circulation through Saturday.
Under current modelling, by first light Sat morning a trough of low pressure will be deepening due east of the Illawarra.
A pair of weak cold fronts are expected to pass over Tasmania in the short term, generating small S swells which will overlap with the last pulses coming from the polar low now SE of New Zealand. A dynamic, troughy pattern looks set to unfold over the weekend.
High pressure is approaching Tasmania with a weak trough expected to linger in the Tasman over the weekend and lead to mostly light/variable breezes. A complex polar low is approaching the NZ corridor and although the frontal progression looks a notch less favourable for swell production up the East Coast we’ll still see S’ly groundswell pulses over the weekend.
Local swell sources dry up but polar lows better aimed at Pacific targets will send some long period S swell up the pipe over the weekend and early next week before a more subdued outlook takes hold.
The remnants of the weekends low pressure trough are currently being reinforced by a another cold front and expected to form a broad low pressure system in the Tasman in the short term which will supply some fun waves this week with an easing trend into the weekend
An angled trough of low pressure forms off the NSW Coast o/night and quickly moves out into the Tasman Sea. Compared to Wed’s notes windspeeds look a smidge weaker, but the fetch forms a better aligned SE arm around the trough line through Sat.
Strong winds to potential S’ly gales look to develop o/night Fri into Sat as the low pressure trough deepens offshore and a strong high moves into the Bight.
Small swells from this low will ease through the week with some deep polar activity sending more small S swell wrap up the Pipe before a stronger frontal intrusion this weekend brings a sizier S swell with plenty of S wind.