Monday, 8 August 2022

The building blocks are now in place for an active  week of surf from the SE. A complex, multi-centred low is stationed over New Zealand with a strong (1029hPa) high located equidistant between Tasmania and the South Island offering excellent cradling support for the low.

Friday, 5 August 2022

Surf prospects are definitely looking juicier for next week with a much more substantial fetch of S-SE winds set up on the Eastern side of the Tasman Sea as the decaying low reforms near New Zealand, aiming up several useful fetches back to the East Coast.

Wednesday, 3 August 2022

Our Tasman Sea and Coral Sea swell windows remain very subdued as we move through the week. A monster, complex low system is slowly moving south of the Bight, expected to decay as it enters the Tasman Sea over the weekend.

Monday, 1 August 2022

We’ve finally come to a low spot in the current La Niña phase we are in with energy being dialled right back this week.  The high pressure belt is moving at a more typical northerly latitude over interior Australia and with weaker, more mobile high pressure moving over the interior and into the Tasman, we are looking at a period of N’ly biased winds with W’ly oriented fronts being quickly shunted across the Tasman.

Friday, 29 July 2022

No great action on the radar after this weekend as spring-like N'ly pattern establishes.

Wednesday, 27 July 2022

One of the features of this current La Niña phase has been long-lived swell events as low pressure lingers in the Tasman Sea. This current event is typical of that pattern. We are now close to the end game as the low which started off the CQ Coast in the Coral Sea expends it’s last energy off the bottom of the South Island New Zealand.

Monday, 25 July 2022

Lovely looking map this morning with the weekend’s Coral Sea  low lingering near the North Island, having intensified overnight. Current ASCAT (satellite windspeed) pass shows storm force winds embedded in a larger fetch of SE-ESE gales to severe gales aimed back at NSW.

Friday, 22 July 2022

East Coast or hybrid low is now drifting towards Fraser Island, anchored by a huge high (1038hPa) just east of Tasmania. That's directing gales towards SEQLD, and a broad fetch of E/SE winds as far south as the Hunter.

Wednesday, 20 July 2022

The basic building blocks as we described them in Monday's notes are now in place for (another!) dynamic La Niña mediated surf/weather event. A dominant high pressure system (1034hPa) is strengthening as it slowly crosses Tasmania, a typical Summer latitude for high pressure. The remains of a low near the South Island are continuing to send south quadrant swells our way and most notably a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is deepening and expected to activate into a fully fledged Coral Sea surface low as an upper trough moves over it from inland QLD tomorrow.

Monday, 18 July 2022

Surf comes from a wide variety of sources this week as a typical strong winter cold front gets shunted aside by a very La Niña looking synoptic pattern, more reminiscent of Feb/Mar than July.