Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 16th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Tiny Mon-Wed with traces of long period S-S/SE swell possible at S swell magnets 
• W’ly winds developing Tues, extending into Wed
• Minor surf continues Thurs/Fri with light winds (morning offshores, a’noon variable breezes)
• Small E/NE swells developing over the weekend
• Possible uptick in E/NE swell into next week but low confidence in specifics due to model variance, check back Wed for updates
• S swell likely medium term, possibly sizey

Recap

South quadrant swells held in nicely over the weekend, coming in at the top or over f/cast expectations with favourable morning breezes and light a’noon winds. Sat saw surf holding in the 4ft range with bigger 5ft sets on the Hunter while Sun was still offering up 3ft surf at favourable S swell magnets, although easing through the day. Still the occ. 3ft set this morning at S swell magnets, though mostly 2ft under offshore breezes. 

S magnets stayed active over the weekend

This week (June 16-20)

High pressure over Australia and high pressure SE of NZ are leaving a gap across the Tasman at present, with a weak low and front just to the east of Tasmania. The low and front dissipate as they move into the Tasman. A low is currently forming N of the north Island. This system is modelled to deepen over the short term but it tracks SE and rotates away from our swell window as it does so- very much reducing the swell generating potential for the eastern seaboard. The high over Australia eventually tracks into the Tasman late this week with a strengthening trend. Model divergence remains pronounced for the outcomes from this, with GFS still suggesting some kind of trough/easterly dip and enhanced E’ly swells. The European model has a more subdued outlook with a weaker high and trade-wind band remaining further north in line with seasonal norms. GFS seems to be the outlier here, so we’ll continue to monitor through the week with a more conservative outlook as the most likely outcome. 

In the short run we’ll see the weakening low and front drive a synoptic NW tending W’ly flow across temperate NSW although remaining at light/mod paces. We’re basically devoid of swell sources but models have indicated a small signal of longer period S/SE swell from a polar low which passed under New Zealand Sat/Sun into this morning. There is no sign of it on the buoy arrays (it should  be just showing) so confidence is low we’ll much, if anything from it. Worth a squizz at the more reliable S swell magnets for a stray 2footer. Otherwise, tiny almost flat surf is expected. 

Much the same Wed but we’ll see winds shift from W through W/SW-SW and likely end up light S-SE as the low migrates SE and a weak high pressure ridge establishes. Tiny surf again with a chance of flukey long period S-S/SE sets to 2ft and a minor increase in new S swell from a weak fetch off the low SE of Tasmania. That may show some 2ft surf at S facing beaches, 2-3ft under an optimistic scenario. 

Light winds continue through the rest of the working week with light land breezes tending NE on Thurs and similar Fri, although we may see a minor troughy feature off the central coast see winds swing light S-SE Fri a’noon. 

Not much surf to speak of though. A minor signal of short period S swell as the weak low transits across the lower Tasman supplying a weak 2ft surf and some similar size surf from the top of the high on Fri. Expect beachies in the 1-1.5ft range with an occ. 2ft set at the more reliable swell magnets. 

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

High pressure will be moving out into the Tasman this weekend leading to a light wind flow across temperate NSW, with winds swinging E/NE to NE as the high moves eastwards. Well see morning land breezes both mornings, more W’ly on Sat, W/NW-NW on Sun. Either way, nice clean mornings and light a’noon seabreezes. 

Swells from the south will have dried up and we’ll be relying on a small signal of E/NE swell from the top of the high. As mentioned earlier, GFS is more bullish suggesting 2ft surf over the weekend while EC keeps surf in the tiny range (1 occ. 2ft). 

Probably best to keep the mid-lengths and grovellers handy. 

Next week (Jun 23 onwards)

Winds will shift N through NW and likely freshen early next week as fronts approach from the W and dominant high pressure drifts eastwards. Unless we see some resurgence of tropical developments, a couple of small days of minor E/NE swell look likely to start the week off. 

From mid next week we should see action return to the south as fronts push into the Tasman.

EC has a strong series of fronts suggesting sizey S swells later next week, GFS is more conservative and pushes the arrival of fronts back to late next week.

We’ll pencil in a return to seasonal south swells from mid/late next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!