Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri June 20th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor E/NE swells developing over the weekend with light winds
• Small E/NE trade swells maintain tiny surf into next week- light winds Mon
• Small  NE windswell into the mix Tues with freshening N-NW winds
• W’ly winds strengthen Wed with tiny surf
• S pulses from Thurs
• Only moderate size expected but pulses continue Fri into the weekend

Recap

S swells have come in with more vigor than forecast with yesterday seeing some 3ft sets across S facing beaches under offshore W tending NW winds. Still some 2 occ. 3ft surf this morning, clean under an offshore flow expected to tend to light/variable breezes through the day. 

Perfect winters morning with some small S swell still in the water

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

No significant change to the weekend f/cast. High pressure across the interior of NSW will be moving across Southern NSW into the Tasman, bringing settled conditions and light winds, morning offshores both days tending to variable breezes on Sat and light a’noon N’lies for Sun. A trade fetch with a small low at the SE edge of the fetch is supplying small surf to the sub-tropics, with a minor amount expected to slowly filter down into more temperate regions.

Not much surf to speak of with a few leftover S swell trains offering up surf under 2ft and a similar sized signal of minor E swell from the top of the high. Clean and fun though so worth a look at swell magnets.

Same or a half notch smaller on Sun, offering up clean babyfood in the morning, with N’lies in the a’noon scuffing up open beaches.

Next week (Jun 23 onwards)

High pressure sits in the mid-Tasman at the start of next week, maintaining a useful, broad trade flow through the Coral Sea, and a N-NE flow across temperate NSW. Compared to Wed’s notes that flow should stay light on Mon, as the approaching front/low has had timing pushed back. Light offshore breezes Mon with a’noon NE winds at light paces with some small E-E/NE swell filtering down from the southern extremity of the trade fetch should offer some 1 occ. 2ft surf suitable for logs and beginners. 

N’lies fresh Tues as the large low/front approaches, tending NW through the a’noon, even W/NW by close of play. We should see an uptick in both E/NE swell and NE windswell up into the 2 occ. 3ft range through the a’noon, potentially offering up fun beachies as winds swing more offshore.

By Wed the front will be pushing a fresh W/NW tending W’ly flow across NSW. Small E’ly swells to 1-2ft will ease through the day. We may see a minor increase in S swell later Wed at S exposed breaks depending on the timing of gales out Bass Strait- but Thurs looks a safer bet. We’ll fine-tune timing on Mon.

We’ll see S swell in the water Thurs, under offshore W tending W/SW then SW winds. Wave models are likely undercooking size at present with proximate and deeper fetches of gales pushing NE into the mid and far southern reaches of the Tasman. We’ll pencil in 3-5ft of surf for Thurs, bigger at S magnets like the Hunter and see how it looks Mon. 

By Friday we’ll see size easing, likely from 3-4ft in the morning to 3ft or less in the a’noon. Winds will shift from W-W/SW to SW-S as high pressure approaches from the Bight and inland Victoria. 

Light winds and settled conditions next weekend as another large high moves over NSW and into the Tasman. Models suggest a small blend of S groundswell and minor E’ly swells at this point. 

Further ahead, models have been toying with low pressure development in the Coral Sea or Northern Tasman into the last week of June/first week of July possibly drifting southwards and forming a complex low. Nothing concrete or specific yet, but we’ll keep eyes on any instability and see how it’s shaping up on Mon.

Until then, have a great weekend!