Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Wed June 18th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Minor surf continues Thurs/Fri with light winds (morning offshores, a’noon variable breezes)
• Tiny E/NE swells developing over the weekend
• Small E/NE trade swells maintain tiny surf into next week
• Possible NE windswell into the mix Tues with freshening N-NW winds
• W’ly winds strengthen Wed with tiny surf
• S pulses from Thurs
• Only moderate size expected but pulses continue Fri into the weekend

Recap

Very tiny surf to recap with yesterday in the 1-1.5ft range with an occ. 2ft set at the best swell magnets under offshore NW tending W’ly winds. Winds are still offshore this morning and surf is still in the tiny range (1-1.5ft) with a just rideable wave for logs and beginners. We should see a small bump in S swell through the a’noon.

Beautiful conditions but only tiny surf

This week (June 18-20)

No great change to the outlook since Mon. High pressure is slowly moving over inland NSW, expected to reach the Tasman later today into tomorrow. A weakening low is also moving slowly, tracking SE of Tasmania as it dissipates. There is a trough in the Coral Sea with an associated cloud band which is expected to play a role in focussing Tradewinds which form up later this week. Compared to earlier model runs the trough and E’ly dip aren’t expected to form any major swell generating low pressure through the Coral Sea or South Pacific. The broad E’ly pattern which sets up in the Coral Sea gets disrupted next week by cold fronts but longer term looks to set up again as we move to the end of the month. 

In the short run we’ll see more minor surf with the weakening low sending a small S swell as a result of SW winds adjacent to Tasmania today. This should top out at around 2ft on the sets at S facing magnets, smaller (tiny) elsewhere. Light offshore breezes tend to weak and variable breezes in the a’noon so it’ll be fun for a log if you can find a decent bank. 

Similar into Fri morning with light offshore breezes tending to light SW-S breezes as the high moves over coastal NSW with just weak ridge briefly setting up as it does so. More small S swell to 1-2ft with a very weak background E swell less than 2ft. Another day of surf suitable for logs and beginners. 

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

Keep those logs handy for the weekend. If anything we’re looking at even smaller surf for the weekend. There’ll be some workable trade swell in the sub-tropics but only a small, weak signal is expected to propagate into temperate regions. Winds will be light both days through the morning likely tending to SE/NE weak breezes Sat and NE breezes Sun. 

Under current modelling it’s unlikely we will see surf even reach 2ft this weekend with ankle/kneeslappers much more likely. 

At least it will be clean. 

Next week (Jun 23 onwards)

Still expecting winds to shift N through NW and likely freshen early next week as fronts approach from the W and dominant high pressure drifts eastwards. 

Minor E/NE swell filtering down from the trade fetch keeps a 1-2ft wave on the beachies for Mon and likely Tues, possibly with some added NE windswell depending on how well aligned the local winds turn out as they freshen from the N-NW later Mon into Tues.

By mid week winds should swing hard W’ly as a front passes through Bass Strait and a deep, compact low tracks SE of Tasmania. W’ly gales out of Bass Strait and SW gales adjacent to Tasmania are both swell sources for NSW, with the first pulse of S swell likely Thurs and a stronger signal Fri. 

Nothing too solid at this stage as fetches are poorly aligned and moving quickly through the swell window. We should see surf in the 2-3ft range Thurs, up a notch Fri. We’ll fine tune size and arrival on Fri.

Further S’ly pulses look likely into the weekend as a slow moving polar low tracks through Tasman Sea longitudes.

There's also a low expected to form NE of the North Island next week- at this stage moving away to the SE as it intensifies before slipping in behinf the North Island. We'll report back Fri to see if we get a little pulse from it before it does so.

High pressure moves into the Tasman during this period, setting up another tradewind flow in the Coral Sea, with light winds over NSW.

Check back Fri for the latest.