Sydney Hunter Illawarra Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri May 13th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slow easing leftover S/SE swell Sat, even moreso Sun with surf becoming tiny in the a’noon
• Moderate SW tending S winds Sat (W/SW early Northern Beaches), laying down to light breezes in the a'noon
• W/NW tending variable winds Sun
• Tiny at least Mon-Wed next week (Thus as well, most likely)
• Tropics fires up next week with long E’ly fetch developing as a minimum 
• Low pressure may form in the Coral Sea and drift into the Tasman with a significant E/NE-E swell on the radar for next weekend
• Low confidence in specifics this far out so check back Mon for latest update

Recap

Lovely surf yesterday from the S/SE in the 3-5ft range with the occ. bigger set at swell magnets, clean under offshore winds. Size has eased into today with sets still showing to 4ft, although a little slow with morning W-SW winds shifting mod S'ly as a trough of low pressure moves north up the coast.

Size a little under at some spots but some lovely waves around still

This weekend (Jun 14-15)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. We’ve got a small low pressure trough moving north from the Hunter up towards the MNC, expected to fizzle out and move offshore through tomorrow. In it’s wake we’ll see high pressure move from the inland over the Tasman, bringing light winds and settled conditions. We’ll still see some moderate S’ly flow tomorrow as the trough moves away, with SW winds inshore early, (W/SW north of the harbour) tending S’ly at mod paces before laying down to light SE-E breezes. 

Surf-wise, the slow moving Tasman Low is now on it’s last legs as it drifts across New Zealand so we’ll see that swell source trending down over the weekend. Still some 3ft sets on offer tomorrow (occ. 4footer is possible) with size and consistency softening through the a’noon. 

By Sun it’ll be even smaller- mostly 2ft with the very occ. 3ft set for the early, becoming 2ft or less through the day. Perfect winds for Sun though make the mop up worthwhile with light offshores and very light/variable seabreezes in the a’noon. 

Next week (Jun 16-20)

Not much action to start next week with weak high pressure in the Tasman and fronts being shunted southwards. Pencil in tiny days Mon-wed at this stage, possibly Thurs as well.

From there we have interesting developments in the eastern swell window. The crux of that is strengthening high pressure near New Zealand and then in the Tasman. On it’s own that will see a broad E’ly fetch develop likely in the New Caledonia quadrant, extending into the South Pacific slot. GFS adds to that recipe for a round of (sizey) trade swell with a deepening trough in the Coral Sea which spawns a surface low mid week, currently modelled to track southwards into the Tasman (see below). 

If that comes to pass we’re looking at a significant swell from the E/NE though E late next week into the weekend.

Size may reach that 6ft mark under the optimum scenario.
Too early to have any confidence in specifics so check back in Mon and we’ll have a much clearer understanding of how it will play out. 

Until then, have a great weekend!