Sydney Hunter Illawarra Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon June 9th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Low sits in Tasman this week with plenty of swell
• First pulse in local S swell Tues with fresh W’ly winds
• Sizey mix of S and S/SE swells Wed with W-SW winds
• Quality S/SE swell Thurs with W tending S/SW winds
• Nice slow tailing off of S/SE swell Fri into the weekend with W-SW winds 
• Quiet start to next week with more low pressure in the Tasman likely from Tues- check back Wed for latest updates

Recap

Lots of quality surf over the weekend with a mix of S swell trains to 3-4ft Sat, easing before longer period S-S/SE swell filled in late in the day and an offshore synoptic flow that veered between W-W/NW and  W/NW-NW through the course of the day. Long period swells hung in for Sun with sets topping out in the 4-5ft range (few 6ft sets reported on the Central Coast) under offshore winds with size and consistency softening through the a’noon, especially under the influence of a big rising tide. Not much leftover this morning with just a few small, stray swell trains from the S/SE offering up an occ. 2ft wave under fresh W’ly winds as a low winds up NE of Tasmania. That will be the dominant feature for the week. Read on for details. 

Offshore winds and swell all weekend 

This week (June 9-13)

Slow moving low pressure (995hPa) spawned in a cold outbreak is currently due east of Eden on the far south coast and is driving fresh W’ly winds across NSW and up into SEQLD, whist directing a fresh SE flow across Tasmania. We’ll see the low move slowly out to sea later tomorrow and generate an initial pulse of local, directional S swell before moving further into the Tasman with better angled swells produced for later in the week. 

In the short run we’ll see the low move offshore o/night into Tues and strong winds to low end gale SW winds along the Southern NSW coast, extending out to a thin S’ly fetch on the western flank of the low. That will generate local S swells tomorrow, with size building from 2-3ft in the morning to 5-6ft during the day. Winds across the region should stay fresh W tending W/SW through the a’noon.

Plenty of size into Wed with W’ly tending SW’ly winds through the day. We’ll see the initial surge of directional S swell get overwritten by better quality S-S/SE swell to 4-5ft with a wider range of quality waves on offer Wed.

There’s a lovely SE fetch set-up by the low as it retreats towards New Zealand and that fetch looks to reach peak intensity early Wed and then slowly ease. 

Under current modelling that would suggest nice S/SE-SE swells for Thurs in the 4-5ft range with some 6ft sets possible, with a slow ease into and through Fri. 

Winds should be fine for Thurs - light offshore through the morning, tending SW-S/SW through the day.

Similar for Fri morning with W-W/SW breezes but we will see a more S to S/SE flow set-up through the day as a troughy feature moves up off the MNC and a high pressure ridge builds in. 

This weekend (June 14-15)

Still some fun surf from the S/SE on Sat with sets to 3 occ. 4ft easing through the day. The trough of low pressure and high pressure ridge hold a W-SW flow tending SW-S through the day but wind speeds should remain light to moderate at worst so clean surf through the morning will only become slowly wind affected.

By Sun high pressure moves out into the Tasman and weak pressure gradients along the NSW Central Coast lead to light land breezes and weak, late seabreezes. Nice clean conditions with some small, fun leftovers to 2 occ. 3ft at S facing beaches.

Next week (Jun 16 onwards)

Looks like a couple of small days to start next week with leftovers to 1-2ft or less and offshore winds as a front and low approach from the west.

We should see more action mid week with potential for another low in the Tasman.

Lots of model divergence there so we’ll flag another round of S quadrant swell possibly as early as Tues next week and see how it looks on Wed.

Seeya then!