Best Days: Tomorrow at metro regions, Wednesday at Margs, Wednesday morning at metro regions, Thursday at metro regions, maybe Saturday morning at Margs, Sunday at metro regions.

Features of the forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf into tomorrow with NE breezes at Perth and Mandurah tending N in the PM, onshore at Margs
• Long-range WSW pulse Wed afternoon 
• Improved forecast for Margs on Wed late AM/PM with variable winds, tending strong into the day up north
• New WSW pulse for Thursday AM with variable winds at metro regions in the AM, blown out at Margs
• Strong pulse for Friday but onshore across the coast 
• Slowly easing on Saturday with reinforcing pulse in the PM 
• SSW winds at Margs with a window of SE at metro regions late AM/ early PM
• Easing into Sunday with variable winds up north, onshore at Margs 
• Improving winds for the long range as high pressure moves in

Recap

Margs saw a window on Saturday morning of light offshore winds and pumping surf before it went onshore, while metro regions also had a fun surf and clean conditions most of the day. Sunday morning was really poor but up north saw it improving although still choppy while the swell filled in.

The swell eased today with good winds across the coast and still solid at margs with plenty of options.

This week (Jun 16-20)

Today’s swell continues to ease into tomorrow, it’ll be blown out in the South West but winds will be alright for Perth and Mandurah in the morning with smaller 1-2ft surf. 

The forecast has changed for mid week as we now have a small but strong low pressure system that formed off the back of a frontal progression, which is now at mid latitudes in the Indian Ocean and will push north and approach the coast near metro regions as it breaks down later tomorrow and into Wednesday morning.

What this means is that Margs has had an improvement for Wednesday with variable winds, as it sits south of the decaying low and under a ridge of high pressure, while metro regions will see conditions deteriorating through the day with fresh winds that turn from NE to NW. 

It is worth keeping an eye out on Wednesday with this update on the forecast, especially for Margs, as we’re still expecting a long-range WSW pulse for Wednesday afternoon as discussed on the last notes from a frontal progression moving west that should build to 6-8ft at Margs and 2ft at metro regions.

Another change due to the development of that low that moves north into the Indian Ocean is that we can expect that to generate WSW swell into Thursday morning, with the system very well aimed at the metro regions. This will replace the mid-period pulse we expected into Thursday afternoon since a lot of the energy on the front was given into the development of the low, which is stronger and better aimed. This should send sizes up to 3ft+ at Perth and 4ft+ at Mandurah that could see really fun conditions with variable winds. Margs will build up to 8ft+ but onshore. 

On Friday the WSW swell still looks strong from another frontal progression pushing towards WA, and now seems to be more consolidated into one groundswell instead of a mix, building to 12ft+ for Margs, 3-4ft Mandurah, 3ft Perth. However quality will be ruined as the system shoots up north towards the coast with its remnants sending strong onshore winds.

This weekend (Jun 21-22)

The groundswell will ease into Saturday but it is only a slow easing trend since the source was well sustained and pushed nicely towards the coast. There is also an expected re-intensification of the front tomorrow before it dips away, generating a reinforcing pulse that arrives Saturday afternoon and holds back the easing trend. 

Winds will be tricky on Saturday though, although protected spots at Margs could be ok in the morning as it is tending Southerly and metro regions could see a window in the middle of the day of SE breezes.

Into Sunday the swell continues to drop and metro regions could see variable winds while the South West is blown out. 

In the longer term, we have high pressure that moves in next week which could bring an improvement with the winds and there is a large groundswell possible into Tuesday which is worth keeping an eye on, we’ll provide more details on that on the next notes. Until then, have fun!