Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday August 4th)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, later tomorrow and early Wednesday Surf Coast, Sunday and Monday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small tomorrow AM ahead of a moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell later, peaking Wed AM, easing
• Fresh N/NW-NW tending W/NW winds tomorrow
• Strong W/NW tending SW later AM Wed
• Mod-large W/SW groundswell for Thu (likely undersized early) with mod-fresh S/SW-S winds
• Easing swell Fri with mod-fresh S/SE-SE winds (possibly E'ly early to the east)
• Reinforcing, moderate sized SW groundswell Sat with fresh E/NE-NE tending SE winds
• Easing swell Sun with NE tending variable winds
• Smaller Mon with fresh N/NE winds

Recap

The surf was still chunky and a bit wind affected to the east on Saturday, average across the Surf Coast, while yesterday was great for the exposed beaches with slowly easing 4ft surf under all day offshore winds.

This morning is a bit smaller but nice and clean again with good waves to 3ft on the exposed beaches with the morning high tide.

Glassy conditions yesterday afternoon

This week and weekend (Aug 5 - 10)

Tomorrow looks small and clean most of the day on the Surf Coast with a fresh N/NW-NW tending W/NW breeze along with a late, inconsistent increase in long-range groundswell.

The groundswell was generated by a strong polar low that fired up around the Heard Island region Thursday evening. This was in our far swell window, with the storm projecting towards Western Australia, but with core, storm-force winds we should see a good, inconsistent groundswell building later tomorrow, peaking Wednesday morning to an infrequent 3ft on the Surf Coast magnets with 4-5ft+ sets to the east.

Winds will only be favourable early Wednesday morning though with a strengthening W/NW tending SW breeze as a strong cold front moves through. Some localised windswell will build behind the front, with a larger groundswell filling in behind the front on Thursday.

The earlier stages of Wednesday’s front is currently south-west of Western Australia, projecting a great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, weakening on approach tomorrow.

We’re expecting to see a moderate to large W/SW groundswell for Thursday, filling in through the day and peaking to 3-5ft across the Surf Coast (4-5ft magnets) with 6ft+ waves to the east.

Unfortunately high pressure will fill in behind Wednesday’s frontal passage, with onshore, S/SW-S winds due through Thursday, shifting S/SE-SE into Friday. Locations to the east might see winds shift lighter E’ly through the morning but the swell still looks chunky and to 6ft.

A reinforcing SW groundswell is due into Saturday, generated by a weaker, trailing polar front behind the swell producer for Thursday and winds should swing more E-E/NE through the morning.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should come in at 3-4ft with 6ft surf to the east, easing slowly through the afternoon and great for the beaches Sunday under a NE offshore.

Monday will be smaller as N/NE winds persist. Longer term there’s nothing too significant on the cards so try and work the limited windows this period.