Solid SW swell due on the weekend, although wind affected
West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 16th May)
Best Days: Thursday morning.
The swell has progressively increased over the weekend from the 8ft range on Saturday, to the 10-12ft range on Sunday, before peaking today at a solid 12-15ft. Quality has been hard to come by however, with fresh/strong onshore winds persisting.
Metro beaches have been fairing much better with lighter winds, even tending offshore this morning. The swell built to a peak in the 4ft range today, with great options during the morning.
This week (Tuesday 17th - Friday 21st):
Today’s XL southwesterly groundswell will fade into Tuesday, with options in the 6-8ft range across the South West and 2-3ft range for Perth preceding a pulse of southwesterly groundswell generated by a polar front which has been moving west of Heard Island over the past couple of days.
Southwesterly core winds of up around 35-45kts should provide a pulse to around 8ft+ across the South West on Wednesday morning, more in the 2-3ft range for the metro beaches.
Conditions are likely to be lacking quality on Tuesday as a southwesterly breeze eases (more so west/southwest for Perth), however winds should ease into Wednesday, with early easterly breezes on the cards early for Perth. The South West should be under a light westerly breeze from the morning, having a slight impact on wave quality.
With a lack of fresh swell, conditions should ease across all coasts on Thursday, from the 6ft range across the South West and the 2ft range along the Pert stretch. Only ordinary background energy is expected to break on Friday, generated by a disjointed and poorly aligned westerly fetch which is currently blowing over the Heard Island region.
As this fetch moves east in the coming days, it is likely to break down, resulting in a mundane swell, merely maintaining options in the 3-5ft range for Margs on Friday, becoming small for Perth.
Thursday morning is looking cleaner across all coasts under a light offshore breeze, becoming variable before possibly tending light onshore later. Friday is likely to be a write off under a pre-frontal northwesterly airflow, with only the outside chance of a clean wave in the early morning in Perth. Quality will be hard to come by, let alone decent size.
This weekend (Saturday 22nd - Sunday 23rd):
More substantial energy is due to build throughout Saturday, generated by a frontal progression east of Heard Island that is expected to slingshot disjointed southwesterly fetches towards WA’s southwest in the days prior.
While there is no distinct core fetch, southwesterly winds look to move in a good captured motion pushing right into the coast, whipping up a solid swell to the 10-12ft swell range by the late afternoon, easing from the 10ft range on Sunday.
Perth should build to around 3-4ft late in the day, easing from around 3ft on Sunday.
Unfortunately, winds are not looking to cooperate over the weekend, with a fresh/strong west/southwesterly breeze only easing later on Sunday.
Next week (Monday 24th onward):
Early indications show yet another southwesterly fetch moving in a captured motions towards the South West early next week, although with less intensity and dissipating before nearing the coast.
More information on Wednesday.