Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th June)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday protected spots, Tuesday, Wednesday on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading W swell tomorrow with strong but easing N/NW tending NW winds
• Tiny Fri with strong N winds
• Moderate sized W/SW groundswell filling in Sat, peaking through the PM with strong N tending N/NW winds
• Easing surf Sun with strengthening NW tending N/NW winds
• Moderate sized SW groundswell Mon with strong NW tending W/NW winds
• Easing swell Tue with mod-fresh N/NW winds, smalle Wed with strong N/NE winds

Recap

The surf was tiny and clean across the Surf Coast yesterday, workable to the east across the beaches, best in the morning.

Today we've got a small increase in weak W/SW swell with poor conditions to the east, cleaner on the Surf Coast but tiny.

This week and weekend (Jun 15 - 18)

Today's small lift in W'ly swell has been generated by a high-riding mid-latitude low moving in from the west, with the swell due to fade tomorrow from a similar size along with strong but easing N/NW tending NW winds.

There might be a couple of options on the Surf Coast beaches for the keen, but you'd have to be desperate.

Friday morning looks to be a low point in swell, with some new small W'ly swell possibly showing later in the day, but the weekend looks to be a much better chance for this. Winds will strengthen again, holding out of the N'th all day.

Now, the weekend and early next week look much better for a surf thanks to the development of a broad, Southern Ocean Gyre south-southwest of Western Australia.

That being multiple low pressure centres spinning inside a broader area of low pressure, projecting multiple fetches of gale-force winds through our western swell window as the gyre moves slowly east.

An initial fetch of gales in our far swell window will be followed by a better fetch of gale to at times, severe-gale W/SW winds under Western Australia this evening and tomorrow morning.

This fetch will produce a moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Saturday, building from dawn and reaching what looks to now be a strong 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ to the east. The swell should ease back through Sunday from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively and winds will favour more exposed breaks, strong from the N tending N/NW on Saturday, gusty NW tending stronger N/NW later Sunday.

These local winds will be thanks to slow moving gyre continuing to project frontal activity up through the Bight, crossing us Monday bringing a shift in winds to the W/NW.

The final front should bring a final pulse of mid-period SW swell for Monday. The models diverge on the timing and strength of this final frontal system, with EC being stronger and earlier, but we're likely to see the swell kick back to at least 4ft again on the Surf Coast, easing Tuesday under N/NW winds. Check back here Friday for a clearer idea on this swell evolution.

Longer term it looks like we'll enter a brief period of inactivity ahead of the next flurry of activity, projecting up and into Western Australia. More on this Friday.