TC Alfred (982hPa) is currently about 465 km east north-east of Brisbane and moving SE at 7kts holding intensity as a Cat 2 system continuing to generate pumping cyclone surf.
The South Coast is the pick tomorrow morning before the Mid Coast becomes the target later week.
Alfred is expected to move SE today, generating mod to large swells down the NSW coast (it’s already solid in the sub-tropics!). Alfred takes a westwards turn thorough Tues into Wed and there’s now model consensus we’ll see a coastal crossing in SEQLD or far NENSW Thurs or Fri.
The coming period isn't ideal for the Surf Coast with fun windows to the east.
Tomorrow will be minimal in size with a better chance for a surf Sunday morning.
TC Alfred is about 730 KM NE of Rockhampton and expected to move southwards today, with a SW track possible into Sat.
There are some model runs suggesting it penetrating the Tasman and developing a large wind field across the Tasman that would see larger E’ly swells into late next week.
The weekend will be decent across the South West each morning while a bigger swell is due into next week with strong offshore winds as it peaks.
Under current modelling, most major models have TC Alfred, or a sub-tropical cyclonic descendant of it, slow moving off the SEQLD coast early next week possibly drifting erratically through the whole week. That leads to high confidence for an extended period of very large surf in the sub-tropics, possibly of an historic nature in terms of size and duration.
We've got out first pulse of W/SW swell in the water with plenty more to come.
