Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday May 13th)

Best Days: Today (afternoon to the east), Tuesday Surf Coast, Wednesday Surf Coast

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing W/SW groundswell tomorrow with strengthening N winds (fresh N/NW in the AM to the west, possibly N/NE later to the east)
• Smaller to tiny Sun AM with strengthening N/NE-N tending N/NW winds
• Small mix of mid-period W/SW and SW swell building Sun AM, easing Mon
• Strong N winds Mon
• Moderate to large sized W/SW groundswell Tue with strong N/NW tending NW winds
• Easing swell Wed with strong NW tending N/NW winds
• Smaller Thu with N-N/NW winds

Recap

Wednesday's inconsistent SW groundswell eased off into yesterday but the Surf Coast held a fun 3ft most of the day with lighter winds developing to the east, providing fun waves into the afternoon on the high tide.

Today, our inconsistent and tricky W/SW groundswell is slow and only coming in at a similar 3ft+ or so across the Surf Coast magnets with 4-5ft sets to the east. Conditions are again clean with fun options on the Surf Coast, improving to the east again into the afternoon as winds go more variable. 

The swell is due to start easing through the day so the most energy will likely be found this morning.

This weekend and next week (Jun 13 - 20)

We’ve got easing surf over the weekend with strengthening N’ly winds as a small mid-latitude low pushes east through the Bight. Winds look fresh N/NW through the morning, shifting more N’ly and then possibly N/NE later to the east, but most of the day is likely to be wind affected to the east.

Easing sets from 2ft+ are likely on the Surf Coast tomorrow with 3-4ft waves to the east, smaller Sunday morning strengthening N/NE-N tending N/NW winds.

Into the late afternoon Sunday, a mix of smallish mid-period W/SW and SW swells are due, with the westerly energy having no real size, generated by the northward located low moving through the Bight.

The SW energy will be generated by a weak front passing south of Western Australia today and both aren’t really expected to top 2ft on the Surf Coast with 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula later Sunday, easing from a similar size Monday.

Winds will strengthen more from the N’th into Monday ahead of a stronger and better swell producing mid-latitude low.

Compared to the low linked to today’s underwhelming swell, this coming system will form a little more south and push closer towards us, with it forming south-west of Western Australia today.

It’ll be strongest in its earlier stages, with a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W’ly winds due to be projected through our western swell window, weakening on approach through the weekend but still maintaining a fetch of strong to gale-force winds while projecting a little less favourably north.

A moderate to large W’ly groundswell should arrive early Tuesday and peak through the day to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula and with strong N/NW tending NW winds.

The remnants of the low will move north of us through Tuesday/Wednesday, with easing levels of swell into Wednesday with strong NW tending N/NW winds.

Longer term, as touched on in the last update, we’ve got a good flurry of Southern Ocean storm activity developing south-west of Western Australia next week, generating good, increasing levels of W/SW groundswell from later next week but more so the weekend. At this stage the size looks to peak Sunday but more on this in Monday’s update. Have a great weekend!