Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 2nd September)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, east of Melbourne Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday

Recap

Great waves most of yesterday across the Surf Coast with a strong new long-period SW groundswell to 3-4ft under offshore tending variable winds. The Mornington Peninsula was clean enough but the sets too large for the beaches.

Today the swell is back to 2-3ft and onshore E/SE winds were in at 13th Beach, with more variable breezes around Torquay. The Mornington Peninsula was OK as well with 3-5ft sets and E'ly breezes.

This weekend and next week (Sep 3 - 9)

Tomorrow isn't looking too flash, with onshore SW winds due across most locations, tending W/SW through the day. The Torquay region should see a morning W/NW'ly though with easing 2ft sets.

Sunday will start small and inconsistent with 2ft sets on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, but our new pulse of W/SW groundswell for the afternoon will now be met with the earlier arrival of Monday's strong W/SW groundswell.

The first swell for Sunday afternoon was generated in our far swell window, but the progression of severe-gale W/NW winds through our western swell window linked to Monday's swell has been quickened a little.

Currently south-west of WA, a fetch of severe-gale to near storm-force W/NW winds are developing and will project east towards us over the coming 24 hours. This will then be followed by a slightly weaker fetch of W/NW gales moving over the top of this sea state.

With the fast projection towards us, this will lead to a late kick in size Sunday. The Surf Coast should build slowly to 3ft and 5ft on the Mornington Peninsula through the afternoon, with a larger kick later in the day towards 4ft and 6ft on the sets respectively.

Conditions will be best on the Surf Coast with NW tending W/NW winds.

A peak in size is due Monday morning with 4-5ft+ sets across the Surf Coast and 8ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. The surf should hold most of the day owing to that secondary fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds, easing back Tuesday from around 4ft and 6ft+ respectively.

Conditions on Monday will be excellent with an all day offshore NW'ly similar Tuesday but with possible SE sea breezes. Locations east of Melbourne may see an early N/NW breeze Monday morning, N'ly Tuesday.

The easing trend will continue to be slow through Wednesday from a small intense but less favourably aligned mid-latitude low moving through our swell window early next week. This will be with better NE winds for locations west of Melbourne.

Longer term another large long-period W/SW groundswell is on the cards for next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!