Slow weekend, pumping late Monday, big Tuesday

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 5th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast all weekend, Mornington Peninsula Saturday morning and Sunday, Surf Coast Monday afternoon and Wednesday/Thursday mornings, Mornington Peninsula Friday


Fun clean waves across both coasts yesterday with all day offshores and 2ft waves on the Surf Coast with 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Today the swell has bottomed out with tiny clean surf west of Melbourne and crisp small 2ft waves to the east. Winds will swing more W'ly through the day, creating average conditions on the Mornington Peninsula, while there may be a late kick in swell seen across both coasts.

This weekend and next week (Jun 6 – Jun 12)

Our inconsistent pulses of long-range W/SW groundswell are still on the cards for the weekend, but the key will be patience as conditions are due to be good, but the waits between the sets quite a while.

A small increase is due tomorrow morning to an infrequent 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a slightly better pulse into the afternoon to 3ft on the sets west of Melbourne and 6ft to the east.

The swell should then ease back through Sunday from 2-3ft and 4-6ft respectively across both coasts. Winds tomorrow should be offshore all day from the N/NW on the Surf Coast and tending N'ly early on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday should then see stiffer N/NW winds on the Surf Coast and all day N'ly breezes on the Mornington Peninsula.

Monday morning is due to be a low point in swell activity with small clean 2ft waves across the Surf Coast and bumpy 4-5ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula under a strong NW wind.

Into the afternoon though, a new W/SW groundswell due across the state has been upgraded, with the vigorous and broad frontal system pushing in from the south-eastern Indian Ocean expected to maintain a slow moving fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds while tracking towards us over the weekend and into early Monday.

A large and powerful W/SW groundswell will result, building through Monday and reaching 4-5ft+ across the Surf Coast by dark with 8ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula before peaking Tuesday morning.

This peak Tuesday morning will be overridden by an even larger W/SW groundswell generated by a secondary front pushing in from the west and projecting a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds on top of an already active sea state.

All this activity will result in a very large and powerful W/SW groundswell being produced for Tuesday, coming in at 6-8ft+ on the Surf Coast and 12ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula through the morning, easing a touch later in the day.

A more considerable drop is then due into Wednesday as the front pushes off quickly across us Tuesday, easing from 4-6ft down to 3-4ft during the day on the Surf Coast and down from 8ft east of Melbourne.

Now, winds Monday will be fresh to strong from the NW, creating great conditions on the Surf Coast, while Tuesday will unfortunately see fresh to strong W/SW winds in the wake of the swell producing front. There's a very slim chance for an early W'ly around Torquay, but it'll be victory at sea conditions.

Wednesday should become cleaner again with a morning W/NW breeze, swinging W/SW through the late morning.

The swell will continue to ease into the end of the week as winds swing back offshore more from the N/NW, with some reinforcing swell energy just slowing this trend.

Longer term an upper level blocking pattern will move in next weekend, resulting in a slower period of waves, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!


Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Friday, 5 Jun 2015 at 1:57pm

Hey Craig,

Thanks for the updated forecast for the weekend!

I had the sniffles last weekend and missed out on the great swells that came on Saturday. I did see a little movie (hehe it was on Coastalwatch, sorry for looking at the oppositions site, yours is so much better) but there were some awesome waves and some people got some crazy good barrels and did some big turns too.

Its a pity the waves are looking like they will be much smaller this weekend. Hopefully there will be some fun little ones at Winki or maybe even Beacons. At least the winds are nice so I'm hoping there will be some barrels to get. I might even try to get down on Tuesday to get some big waves too.

Thanks again for the forecast, hope everyone gets some barrels and waves this weekend. Yeew


Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Saturday, 6 Jun 2015 at 11:12am

I like the cut of your jib Ralf.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Saturday, 6 Jun 2015 at 12:45pm

G'day Gary

Arr you just reminded me of my sailing days from back home on the Great Lakes haha.

Hope you got some fun waves this morning. I had a good little surf at a beach break because winki looked a bit small.


Tom.P's picture
Tom.P's picture
Tom.P Sunday, 7 Jun 2015 at 8:26am

Hi Craig, do you think that the surf on Monday on the surf coast will be effected because of the strong NWly?

Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin's picture
Gary_G_Gherkin Sunday, 7 Jun 2015 at 10:56am

My surf couch says the wind on Monday is forecast to be the most north-westerly since Easter 1983.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 7 Jun 2015 at 10:57pm

Could be blowy at times, but generally fine and great from that direction.

Ralf's picture
Ralf's picture
Ralf Sunday, 7 Jun 2015 at 1:37pm

Hey Tom.P

I know that when I started to read these forecasts it was mighty confusing with so much information to take in. I would sometimes have to read the forecast 3-4 times to take it all in.

If you have a look at the 4th paragraph up from the bottom of the forecast notes you will see that Craig has written..."Now, winds Monday will be fresh to strong from the NW, creating great conditions on the Surf Coast." I hope it will be pumping with the new swell and good winds, yew!

Hope this helps you out there but things are definitely looking good, so you should find good waves. I might surf at winki!