Small weekend of waves; decent southerly swells next week

Ben Matson picture
Ben Matson (thermalben)

Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 4th December)

Best Days: Small mix of surf this weekend with good winds early Sat, and then all day Sun (plus a small NE windswell). Late Wed thru Sat: nice S'ly swells, solid Friday

Recap: It’s been a complex week of flukey south swells. For the most part, Thursday offered 3ft sets at south facing beaches and today pushed 4ft (smaller elsewhere). However there were isolated reports of bigger waves at times in the 4-5ft+ range. Winds have been mainly light and variable through the mornings, tending moderate onshore throughout the days. This morning offered the cleanest conditions with early light offshore winds.

This weekend (Dec 5 - 6)

We’ve got a couple of sources of small south swell for the weekend. 

The tail end of the low/front responsible for our recent long period energy should kick up some small swell, and an unrelated front traversing the waters south of Tasmania today is the second source. There won’t be much size or consistency, but reliable south swell magnets should see occasional 2ft, maybe 2-3ft sets at times. 

However model guidance only expects just over a foot of swell at 13 seconds on Saturday, which isn’t particularly promising - so it’s certainly not a high confidence event. As such, the upper end of this forecast size range will probably be restricted to a small number of locations across the usual swell magnet haunts like the Hunter region, so don’t expect a lot of action elsewhere.

Early light winds will swing NE into Saturday afternoon and strengthen, and there’s a chance for a very late windswell increase from the same direction.

A strong front crossing the region overnight will mainly affect southern locations, with winds swinging NW then W’ly across most Sydney, Hunter and Illawarra regions through Sunday. We’ll see a small combo of S’ly and NE swells up to 2ft at exposed beaches though I’m really not expecting anything special. Conditions should however be super clean. 

Next week (Dec 7 onwards)

Sunday’s front will be attached to a large, complex series of low pressure systems crossing the Tasmanian divide early in the week.

Initially they’ll be poorly aligned for us (with mainly W/NW winds across our swell window) but the trough axis should pass into the Tasman Sea by late Monday, allowing strong S/SW winds to develop from Tuesday and this should set up some new S’ly swell for our region.

To begin with, we’ll see low quality short range surf on Tuesday accompanied by fresh side shore S/SW winds, but the parent low to this front (see below) will have generated a better S’ly groundswell that’’s due into the South Coast on Wednesday morning, reaching Sydney latitudes mid-late afternoon - likely peaking overnight before easing through Thursday. Wednesday looks clean with generally light winds, as does Thursday. 

Model guidance has weakened the synoptic pattern since Wednesday's notes were prepared, and the low is tucked in slightly behind the Tasmanian swell shadow - but we should still see 4ft sets at south facing beaches at the height of the energy. This will probably occur overnight Wednesday, so late afternoon and then the dawn patrol Thursday will be your best options (though, it may come in a little under budget). Expect an easing trend through Thursday. 

A better, stronger frontal sequence trailing behind - with a strong polar low at its core - is shaping up to deliver strong southerly swells on Friday. Early indications are for strong 4-5ft sets at south facing beaches, pushing 5-6ft+ across reliable south swell magnets such as the Hunter. Size will then ease through Saturday.

Long term has a typical summery troughy pattern across the lower Coral Sea with a suggestion for a sustained period of E/NE swells next weekend and through the first half of the following week. More on this in Monday’s update. 

Have a great weekend!

Comments

jordan.mar's picture
jordan.mar's picture
jordan.mar Monday, 7 Dec 2020 at 7:24am

Good NE energy to 2-3ft yesterday afternoon