Long period S swells over the weekend before a typical February tradeswell week
South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Feb 2nd)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small surf Sat AM with new S swell building in the AM across MNC, NorthCoast by lunch-time, with light onshore winds
- Stronger S swell Sun AM with freshening NE winds
- Small leftovers Mon with NE winds
- Small, flukey S swell pulse possible across NENSW S facing beaches Tues
- Pulsey E’ly tradewind swells developing from Tues next week with SE-E/SE winds becoming established from mid week
- Still potential from the tropics, nothing concrete but stay tuned for latest updates
Recap
E’ly swells from a small low moving NE off the QLD Coast have pulsed up and down over the last couple of days with clean 3ft sets yesterday favouring SEQLD. Early light winds tended SE through the day with some delectable peelers on the Points. This morning has seen similar surf - perhaps a notch bigger on the Sunshine Coast- with widespread premium conditions under light land breezes now tending to variable then NE seabreezes. Plenty of action ahead.
Small, dreamy peelers on the Superbank yesterday morning
This weekend (Feb 3-4)
A deep low with strong gales currently tracking in a NE direction SE of Tasmania justifies a slight upgrade in size for this weekend at S exposed breaks. Thus we can expect moderate mid period S swell building in the morning across MNC S facing beaches to 3-4ft (mid-mornning across Byron-Ballina). Expect small E’ly swells across SEQLD. Light winds early should offer clean conditions before a light SE-E flow kicks in, tending more NE south of Ballina in the a’noon.
Strong S swell then continues through Sun morning with a much stronger pulse of S swell in the 14-16 second period band with strong sets to 5-6ft+ at S facing beaches NENSW (occ. 6ft set at S magnets) and bigger at S facing river bars and deepwater reefs and showing in the 3-4ft range (occ. bigger 5ft sets) at select SEQLD S facing beaches. Winds will be a problem with an E/NE flow in SEQLD tending more NE south of the border and reaching full strength in the a’noon. Tricky wind outlook so good luck finding somewhere handling the south groundswell and wind. Most places will be blown out or closing out. We should see a steep easing trend through the a’noon.
Next week (Feb5 onwards)
A high in the Eastern Tasman and an approaching inland low (remnants of TC Kirrily) freshen the NE flow proximate to the Mid North NSW Coast o/night Sun into Mon with fresh NE winds extending up to the border, trending lighter NE in SEQLD. Expect leftover S swells to 2-3ft early, with small E’ly swells to 1-2ft and NE windswell south of Yamba to 2ft+.
By Tues we’ll start seeing a new round of tradewind swell up into the 3ft range by close of play. Minor S groundswell from a bombing low with a zonal fetch may show some flukey 2-3ft sets across NENSW S exposed breaks during the day. Winds continue from the E/NE-NE south of the border, tending more E-E/SE in SEQLD. A pretty typical February wind pattern.
We’ve still got substantial model divergence from mid next week with the fate of a trough the area of disagreement. ECMWF is still suggesting a strong S-S/SE flow up the coast and a long angled trough through the Tasman anchoring this flow and generating plenty of swell from the same direction into the second half of next week. A secondary SE surge then reinforces this pattern into next weekend, bringing another round of S-SE swell during this period.
GFS has a much weaker trough system and SE fetch through the Central Tasman, with modest SE swells from mid next week and E’ly tradewind swells providing all the swell energy through next week. GFS does come on board with a reinforcing S-SE flow tied to a new high moving in from the Bight and a frontal system tracking through the lower Tasman.
Common to all major models is a robust tradewind flow through the Coral and Northern Tasman which will favour the sub-tropics for size into the weekend 10-11/2 and hold plenty of pulsey E’ly tradewind swell in the 3-4ft range through most of next week from Tues. A lingering tropical low near New Caledonia may deepen and move back towards the QLD coast during this period, with uncertain surf potential at this early stage.
It’s a very active outlook so check back in Mon for the latest revisions.
In the meantime, have a great weekend!
Comments
Local winds are the X factor ATM. Won’t take much for the models to swing them more onshore.
Did anyone get that south swell? Was expecting some solid ones with that period
I was down in the Illawara and Cronulla areas and there was some serious 10 foot sets mid morning saturday
Local S magnet showed 4ft sets yesterday morning on an initial pulse, which then died back during the day.
Today has been very underwhelming. Coffs swell magnet showing some 4-5ft sets but max 3-4ft here and mostly 2ft with occ. 3-4ft set at S exposed breaks.
Amazing considering how strong that S groundswell was in temperate NSW how small it was up here.
Long lines, swell periods were there on the buoys- it just showed in a very attenuated form.
Steve, Do you think because it was such a south swell combined with a high period, that the swell hugged the continental shelf and felt it, and lost a lot of its steam by the time it hit up your way ?
That is my current working theory- period drag on the shelf robbed the swell of most of the size.
Not really discernable from the leftover E swell.
We win some and lose some north of Byron..
Yesterday was one of the heftier losses, but to be far we should be prepared for disappointment when the Sydney buoy cracks 180. Generally a “believe it when I see it” attitude around these parts when I start talking long period S forecasts.
Super surprised that Coffs / Ballina also dipped out.
Yeah seeing the size and energy down here, it was so consistent and large. Thought it'd be easy 6ft up the North Coast, alas onwards to Fiji.
Saw images from an island out in the Tasman and it's 15ft and perfect.
I dunno whether it's a selection effect because I've been paying more attention, but it seems to have been a feature of the last 12 months.
Really strong, long period S swells that have barely shown up here.
And then that one that showed up under the radar the other week.