South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 3rd March)

Best Days: Sat/Sun: fun beachies right across the region with generally variable winds. Tues/Wed/Thurs: solid SE swells in Northern NSW (smaller in SE Qld) but ideal for the points under a mainly southerly breeze. 

Recap: Super fun, peaky 3ft+ surf on Thursday with light variable winds in most areas all day eased to 2-3ft today with early light winds now freshening from the SE.

This weekend (Mar 4th - 5th)

Although the current small trade swell is expected to ease into Saturday, we are expecting a minor reinforcing pulse from a small region of strengthening E’ly winds just south of New Caledonia late yesterday and today.

This fetch is only thin and will mainly favour SE Qld and Far Northern NSW, with slightly smaller surf south of about Ballina or Yamba originating from a weaker E’ly ridge to the south. 

Surf size should rebuild up into the 3ft+ range at open beaches during Saturday morning, with smaller surf running across the points, and it’ll be a touch smaller across the Mid North Coast with 2-3ft sets. Set waves won't be very consistent but they should be of a decent quality. Expect a very slow easing trend through Sunday, possibly kicking off at a similar size as per Saturday.

Also in the water on Sunday will be a small long period S’ly swell, across Northern NSW’s south swell magnets. Set waves will be very inconsistent but we may see occasional 3ft sets at times south of Byron, originating from a polar low that tracked south of Tasmania yesterday.

The good news is that a weak pressure gradient across the coast will result in light variable winds and sea breezes both days, though the Mid North Coast may see a freshening southerly on Sunday afternoon as a Tasman Low pushes across the region from the south. 

Anyway, it’s shaping up to be a great weekend for the open beach breaks, so find an empty stretch and get stuck into some A-frame goodness!

Next week (Mar 6th onwards)

Geez, the models have been moving around a lot over the last few days. Even as recent as this morning’s 12Z run, they were still generally anticipating a slow moving Tasman Low and an extended period of large surf across the East Coast next week. 

This evaporated significantly in the 18Z run that was made available late this morning (which I don’t normally take to much notice in) but also the latest 00Z run this afternoon - which is much more concerning. 

However, the good news is that whilst the models have downgraded (from what was shaping up to be a very large, broad swell event), the fetch’s alignment is now aimed more into Northern NSW and we’re looking at a decent run of good surf across the regional points. Even SE Qld should pick up some really good surf from this system, although a lot smaller in size. 

The developing low off Southern NSW on Sunday will drive gusty S/SW winds across Northern NSW into Monday morning, and we’ll see building short range southerly swells as a result - initially only low quality, and without much size in SE Qld owing to the direction and short period (though there’ll be some small leftover E’ly swell in the mix).

By Tuesday, the low is expected to be positioned in the north-eastern Tasman Sea, plus a small secondary fetch off NZ’s South Island, originating from the merger between the primary low and a small cut-off low from the Southern Ocean. This will extend a long, broad SE fetch right through the Tasman Sea and should generate building SE swells throughout Tuesday that’ll peak through Wednesday before easing slowly on Thursday.

At this stage we’re still looking at plenty of energy, though Northern NSW’s south facing beaches (south of Byron) will pick up the most size, probably around the 6ft+ mark, possibly a little more of core winds end up being stronger than modelled (right now max about 35kts). Most open Northern NSW beaches will see smaller surf anywhere between 4ft and 6ft, however the semi-exposed points should pick up strong sets of a similar size range at the height of the event, and with winds out of the southern quadrant they’ll be the pick of the region.

Across SE Qld, any swell event with a reasonable southerly component is of concern, as this direction tends to shave off a lot of size. However we have a few positives working in our favour this time; the slow moving nature of this system and the impressive fetch length. As such we should see peak sets reaching 4ft across some of the outer points (through Tues/Wed and maybe Thurs), and 2-3ft surf elsewhere (down the points, and across most open beaches). Protected points such as Noosa will however be much smaller owing to the swell direction. The region’s handful of exposed south swell magnets will be wind affected through this period under a moderate to fresh S/SE breeze, but could see larger 3-5ft sets. 

A smaller but still somewhat reinforcing pulse from the SE (originating from that secondary low off the SW tip of NZ late Mon/early Tues) will maintain smaller but still strong swells through late Thursday and Friday but the longer term outlook suggests a couple of days of smaller waves settling in from next weekend onwards as the swell window becomes temporarily dormant. 

Anyway, all in all it’s a very dynamic forecast chart with lots of potential on the cards. By Monday we should have a very clear understanding as to how the middle of the week is going to pan out, so tune back in over the weekend for updates in the comments below.