Large easing SW swell with plenty of S/SW swell to follow

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Java, Bali, Lombok, Sumbawa forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Tuesday 19th July)

Best Days: Every day over the coming period, biggest Wednesday, Tuesday afternoon week and Thursday afternoon week

This week and next (Jul 20 - 29)

From Sunday afternoon we've seen ebbs and pulses of strong long-period SW groundswell, rising and falling either side of each pulse.

This footage taken from Bali Belly shows the swell pusling strongly Sunday afternoon..

 

Set coming! Huge waves today in south Bali. Watch it live on balibelly.com

A video posted by Bali Belly (@balibelly) on

Through today we should see the strongest pulse of SW groundswell filling in, generated by a final fetch of gale to severe-gale S/SW winds projecting up towards eastern Indonesia on top of an active sea state generated by all the frontal activity before it.

This should see exposed breaks reaching 8-10ft+ later this afternoon from this pulse, easing back steadily from a similar size tomorrow morning, further Thursday from 6-8ft on the sets.

From Friday we'll see moderate sized pulses of S/SW groundswell impacting the islands as front after front projects up from the Southern Ocean through the south-eastern Indian Ocean, towards WA.

One of these fronts has already formed and should produce a fresh pulse of S/SW groundswell for Friday afternoon keeping 6ft sets hitting exposed breaks, holding a similar size through Saturday and then Sunday with another similar sized pulse.

An easing trend is due through Monday.

Through the weekend a couple of more distant but stronger polar lows are due to produce better S/SW groundswell pulses for Tuesday and Thursday respecitvely.

The first low will generated a fetch of severe-gale S/SW winds on the egde of our swell window while projecting towards south-west WA, with the secondary system producing stronger storm-force core winds.

The first pulse should kick Tuesday afternoon and reach a very inconsistent 6ft+ across south swell magnets, easing Wednesday with the secondary pulse for Thursday kicking to a slightly stronger 6ft to maybe 8ft through the afternoon, easing Friday and into next weekend.

Conditions over the coming period will be good variable winds each morning, and moderate to fresh E/SE trades into the afternoon, strengthening a bit into the middle to end of next week.

Longer term fresh pulses of S/SW groundswell are due into the following week but more on this Thursday.

16 day Bali Forecast Graph
16 day East Java Forecast Graph
16 day Sumbawa Forecast Graph

Comments

groovie's picture
groovie's picture
groovie Tuesday, 19 Jul 2016 at 2:28pm

Spot on with the swell forecast Craig! Just came in from outer reefs @ Tuban swell was 2m+ & building ! Winds were good t'day so GR8 conditions however yesterday went for mid arvo surf & wind went from offshore ESE to North east! Wired shit! its also the most rain I've ever seen in the dry season, everyday since arriving back from surfing lombok has been wet, more wired shit! oh well the swell is pumping & you don't get sunburnt so all good!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 19 Jul 2016 at 2:40pm

Yeah all that rain linked to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures off North West WA and Indonesia (negative IOD)..

Purplepills's picture
Purplepills's picture
Purplepills Tuesday, 19 Jul 2016 at 8:37pm

What's IOD Craig? Uluwatu pumping today need every inch of equipment relatively uncrowded

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 19 Jul 2016 at 8:45pm

Indian Ocean Dipole, a great vid and summary here by the BOM.. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/iod/

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin Tuesday, 19 Jul 2016 at 8:50pm

What size board you riding ?

chickenlips's picture
chickenlips's picture
chickenlips Wednesday, 20 Jul 2016 at 11:27pm

He's riding your mum so it must be a fat pig